Stephen Roki: Can Bayon and Xi Jinping meet again?

Sino -US relations require a new contact architecture.The meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November is undoubtedly a positive development.But the annual summit is not enough to solve the deep -rooted conflict between the two superpowers.

Everyone's attention is concentrated at the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC) leadership meeting in San Francisco from November 11th to 17th.This is a good reason: US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to meet during this pan -area meeting.One year.

Bali Island meeting has little effect.Although Biden and Xi Jinping agreed to set a "bottom line" for the continuous deterioration of Sino -US relations, the results were unstable.Less than three months after the Bali Island Summit, the United States shot down a Chinese reconnaissance balloon, and then temporarily frozen diplomatic contact, with additional sanctions on Chinese technology.Gun away.At the same time, the US Congress increased its firepower on the issue of Taiwan, and Xi Jinping accused the United States of implementing "comprehensive curb".What a bottom line!

The new summit between Biden and Xi Jinping may be the second opportunity for urgent need.Both sides seem to be working hard.Unlike the Bali conference, the San Francisco Summit must formulate a script for success.Sino -US relations have fallen into a serious dilemma, and the world that has been warned by war urgently requires leadership. The upcoming summit should pursue three key goals.

First of all, the delivery results.Although the United States pursues correctionism and is unwilling to contact China (in fact, the current conflict is attributed to the "appeasement policy" of China for decades since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001).Dialogue is important.

The focus should not be placed on the slogan, such as last year's "bottom line" or "de -risk" this year, but should be placed more on the clear and realistic goals.This can include consulates that are re -closed (such as the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu and the Chinese Consulate in Houston), relax the visa requirements, increase the direct flight (currently 24 times a week, and more than 150 trips before the crown disease), and restartPopular student exchange programs (such as Fuxing Project).

Improve the connection between people -if the leaders of the two countries treat re -contact carefully, they can easily solve this problem -often reduce political hostility.By fighting the fruits that can be available at hand, Biden and Xi Jinping can open a door and negotiate more controversial topics, such as relaxation of restrictions on non -governmental organizations (they are the adhesives that condense society together), or solve the solutionBoth countries have a major liability for the fentanyl.

But the most urgent delivery result is to resume regular communication between the two armies.After visiting Taiwan in August 2022, China suspended the communication mechanism after visiting Taiwan in August 2022.The danger caused by this interruption is obvious, such as the balloon incident in early February, and the recent warships of the two superpowers in the Taiwan Strait, and confront the aircraft over the South China Sea.As the tensions between the two unprecedented troops were upgraded, the risk of wiping guns was high, and it was still rising.

Secondly, the ideal goal is needed.The joint statement between Biden and Xi Jinping should emphasize that they jointly recognize the two major survival threats facing the two countries: climate change and global hygiene.Although the US Presidential Climate Special Envoy Cry has met with senior Chinese officials this year, but due to the so -called national security issues of both parties, cooperation in clean energy has stagnated.In addition, the political farce of the fierce debate of the origin of crown disease continues to hinder the progress of global hygiene.

Of course, it is difficult to expect Biden and Xi Jinping's summit to solve these survival problems.But mentioning that they are an important symbolic posture, which proves the common commitment of collective management of this increasingly unstable world.The outbreak of the Israeli war between Israel and the Hamas war is particularly true. At the critical moment of the Ukrainian war, this war may spread into a major regional conflict.The United States and China can play a real role by promoting peace agreements in two wars.

Third, Sino -US relations need a new contact architecture.The meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November is undoubtedly a positive development.But the annual summit is not enough to solve the deep -rooted conflict between the two superpowers.

For a long time, I have been in favor of the personalized diplomacy that has occurred from uncomfortable leaders and institutionalized contacts during the leadership meeting. It provides a permanent and powerful framework for continuously eliminating obstacles and solving problems.

The suggestions for establishing the Sino -US Secretariat to establish the Sino -US Secretariat are such a possibility.Although this idea is generally actively evaluated in China and other parts of Asia, U.S. policy makers have not showed interest.In fact, Gragel, the chairman of the Republican Republican Republican and the newly established China House of Representatives Special Committee, is advocating the "zombie contact" theory.He warned that the efforts to re -establish contact with China may lead to the demise of the United States.

At the same time, I am encouraged by the establishment of the four new US -China working groups. This is the result of diplomatic efforts this summer.But this is far from enough, especially compared with the 16 active working groups established by the Trump administration's Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in 2017.

The summit between national leaders is often just media activities.Unfortunately, this was the case in Balri last year.Regardless of whether it is the United States or China, let alone other countries in the world cannot bear the San Francisco Conference this year, and there are still similar empty results.The time for collective operations is getting shorter and shorter.Biden and Xi Jinping reached an agreement on the actual delivery results, emphasizing ambitious goals, and laiding any opportunities for the new contact architecture to waste any opportunities.

Author Stephen S. Roach is a senior lecturer at the School of Management of Yale University, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Investment Co., Ltd.

English Original: A Better Biden-Xiao Summit?

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.