Comparing political science is a "pendulum theory" proposed by the modern political and economic development of Latin America.Swing up.

On January 13, 2024, the dust of the Taiwan election was settled. The Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde won 40.05%, the Kuomintang Hou Youyi 33.49%, and 26.46%of the people's party Ke Wenzhe.Legislative members with a total of 113 seats were elected 51 DPP, 52 KMT, 8 people in the people, and 2 seats without party membership.This result reflects the following three characteristics: President's voting rate is less than half, Lai Qingde may endanger cross -strait relations and the specialist of the Cai Yingwen government.Both of the three have a trend of landscaping.

A few presidents

This election was the first time after Chen Shui -bian was elected president in 2000 (39.30%of Chen Shui -bian, 36.84%of Song Chuyu, and 23.10%of Lien Chan).The Legislative Yuan faced by Chen Shui -bian was a majority of the Kuomintang's ecosystem generated in the 1998 Congress elections. Therefore, Tang Fei, who had to appoint the Kuomintang as the executive president, resigned 139 days later.A Bian has changed six executives in the eight years of administration. The policy and bill entered the Legislative Yuan to get stuck, so that the Presidential Palace was not allowed. In the later period, A -bian was involved in many cases of corruption and disadvantages.The defeat was depressed.

Chile in South America, which commemorates the 50th anniversary of the coup on September 11 last year, as one of the main reasons for the coup in 1973, Salvador Allende, was the president of only 36.2%of the votes in 1970.It has always been unable to obtain social consensus, so the United States has successfully dominated the military coup behind the scenes.

On January 14th, the next day in Taiwan, the two -party delegation led by former US national security consultant Hardley and former deputy Secretary of State Stanbug arrived in Taiwan to meet with political leaders from all walks of life.Although the press release of the United States in the Taiwan Association claims that this is a precedent for the US government, this trip ensures that Lai Qingde does not act lightly.

Article 2 of the Taiwan Constitutional Repair Article 2 Relevant "Relative Most System" of the Presidential Election is that Chen Shui -bian has proposed a compliance with the legislature after being elected with a 39.3%voting rate and changed the provisions to "Absolutely most systems "and will be delivered to the Constitutional Council of the Legislative Yuan.In order to ensure that the presidential election has legitimacy, the constitutional amendment should be renovated as soon as possible to "absolute majority system."

In fact, the Constitution of the Republic of China has the "spirit" of the cabinet system with the power of presidential power.However, both of them were confiscated during the constitutional amendment. No wonder Su Yongqin, former dean of the former judicial court, suggested that the absolute majority system is adopted.

Dangerous figures

The former legislator of Taiwan, Guo Zhengliang, said after the election that although Lai Qingde won, it is 40%, which is only a little better than A -bian. It is like Argentina's Milai. The first round of voting is only 24%.He became too half.

Comparing political science has a "pendulum theory" proposed by the modern political and economic development of Latin America. It is believed that the evolution of the political system of Latin American countries will occur in about 20 years.EssenceIf the economic development is not smooth and the society is unstable under the democratic system, it will lead to the emergence of the authoritarian system, and the authoritarian system will face the pressure of western countries, and the result may return to the democratic system.

On January 5 this year, the "Top Ten Incidents of Latin America" was co -organized by the Beijing China -Latin -Latin Cultural Exchange Center, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the Beijing China -Latinage Education Exchange Center (CECLA).The first one is Miller's election of Argentine President and his inauguration on December 10.As Argentina's "pendulum effect" was significantly affected by Sino -Arab relations, 10 days after Miller worked, Beijing decisively frozen a US $ 6.5 billion exchange agreement with Argentina.

Back to Lai Qingde.In November last year, Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen published articles in US foreign affairs journals, focusing on the Democratic Progressive Party's "Taiwan Independence Party Port" and Lai Qingde's "pragmatic Taiwan independence work workThe background of the "person" believes that Taiwan independence is the biggest break in geopolitics in Taiwan.In January this year, the annual risk report published by the world's largest political risk consulting agency "Eurasia Group" also listed Lai Qingde and Ukraine President Zerleniski and Israeli Prime Minister Naitahu as the "three dangerous friends" in the United States.Lai Qingde has therefore become a dangerous figure of "international certification".

Specialism

In response to the results of the Taiwan election, mainland China is no longer tangled on the trivial product projects, and directly cut off the tariff reduction of the entire industry: for example, to suspend all the agricultural and fisheries industry projects;There are more than 130 textile industries listed in the Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), and about 50 automotive components.If the project involves more than 300 items, it can be described as "half of the country has gone", and it should not be too much to say that ECFA enters the "shock state".Can Lai Qingde resist the economic impact of mainland China to Taiwan?

In the 2020 Taiwan election, the DPP's Cai Yingwen's voting rate was 57.13%, which can be said to represent public opinion; but in 2024, the DPP's votes decreased by more than 2.58 million.The people did not vote to the DPP, and Latin America's "particularism" was the main reason for the rapid loss of the DPP's public opinion foundation.The most popular saying that the specialist person governs the rule of law and the connotation of the law of law is the famous saying of former Brazil President Getúlio Vargas: "My friend, Ronghua and rich; my enemies, legal service" (FOR My FriendEverything; for my enMies, The Law).

The first issue of Asia Weekly 2021 The special report of the new authoritarian phenomenon of green camps behind the scenes behind the scenes of the election of Taiwan has won the 23rd "Excellent News Award" of the Asian Publishing Industry Association, known as the Asian Priced Award (abbreviated referred to as:SOPA Award) "Excellent Review Award" project.The report mentioned that the DPP government was criticized by the Democratic Progressive Party's founding party, and it became more and more like the Kuomintang during the martial law."During this period, the doctor including Zhongtian News, a doctor who opposed lean meat was inquired by the police, and the Professor of National Taiwan University criticized the government by the police.

During the presidential election campaign, Guan Zhongmin, former president of the National Taiwan University, also pointed out that many people may mistakenly think that the behind -the -scenes of the "card management incident" are only Tsai Ing -wen and Kaizhen Su Zhenchang.Lai Qingde.Although Lai Qingde claimed to be appointed by the Chief Executive President, Guan Zhongmin served as the president, but according to the university law, the president of the public university was "appointed" by the Ministry of Education.Essence

(the author is a professor of research at the School of Politics and Strategy of Chile)