At the end of the year and early years, the Han Dynasty tit -for -tat talked and played a fierce game. As always, he was fierce, lively, and interesting.
From December 26th to 30th, 2023, the Ninth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee of the North Korean Labor Party expanded the meeting. Kim Jong -un reported reports to heating up with the US and South Korea's hostility.He opened his bow left and right. On the one hand, he accused the United States of exacerbating military threats. In 2023, "the number of co -troops performed by the U.S. military rogue and the Japanese and South Korean devils increased to twice as much as the same period last year."Playing the role of "loyal dogs" in the United States, qualitative in South Korea "is not a relationship between the same ethnic group and homogeneous relationship", but "the relationship between hostile country and the relationship between the country."
Psychological game: Implementation of extreme pressure
On New Year's Day, South Korean President Yin Xiyue responded toughly when he delivered a new year's speech. In the first half of this year, the upgraded Korean and American extension deterrence mechanism will be completed to build the North Korean nuclear guide threat from the source.On January 2nd, Kim Jong -un's sister and the deputy minister of the Central Propaganda Department, Kim and Zheng, published the New Year's letter to Yin Xiyue, and taued Yin Xiyue's "stupid reckless" and "showing crazy military confrontation gestures" along the spicy door.Accelerating ensuring overwhelming nuclear combat power provides "properness and correctness".On January 3, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Unified Department of the South Korean National Defense came out, and refuted that Kim talked about "the thief shouting the thief", "explicit defamation" and "distorting reality".
South Korean intelligence organization and its related think tanks have always incited North Korea's threat theory, either stupid or bad.South Korea's National Intelligence Institute predicts that North Korea is likely to launch force provocations in early 2024; in April (South Korean Parliament Election) and November (US Presidential Election), it is likely to cause provocations such as military operations or network attacks.According to South Korea ’s Central Daily, Wu Jingzheng, a research member of the South Korean Unified Research Institute, said that Kim Jong -un should discuss with the army's heads of specific plans, including nuclear weapons.
Both sides have a big spoof, public opinion war, and psychological warfare. They all have acting ingredients. They are implementing extreme pressure. The other party will give concessions first. There is both diplomatic needs and internal affairs.For Kim Jong -un, the nuclear guidance Grand Leap Forward and the economic leap forward cannot be both. In order to find reasons for adhering to the political and political, the United States and South Korea must be tough and domestic to the domestic focus and contradiction. For Yin Xiyue, the election situation in the April election has lagged behindThe common Democratic Party leader Li Zai Ming encountered the thorns to further increase the support rate of the opposition party, and must transfer the domestic focus and contradiction to the tough transfer of the country.
Military game: The United States and South Korea are rational enough
With the dense launch of the missile, Kim Jong -un threatened in the Ninth Plenary Session that "the Korean Peninsula may burst at any time."South Korea responded toughly with intensive military exercises. On January 2nd, shelling and mobility exercises were implemented in the cutting -edge regions. On the 3rd, they implemented naval shooting and maritime mobility training on the 3rd.exercise.
But both sides showed enough rationality. His mouth guns were very fierce, and artillery was cautious. He carefully avoided the fire to get angry, and avoid the situation out of control. He repeatedly warned the other party not to do it first.Kim Jong -un asked the People's Army to "contain any form of provocations and actions of the enemy in one fell swoop" and "quickly cope with the nuclear crisis in the case of the nuclear crisis", suggesting that the premise of the hands -on is that the Korean side provoked and the nuclear crisis does not necessarily happen.
South Korean Defense Minister Shen Yuanzheng said in his New Year's speech on January 1, "If the enemy provokes, the Korean army will immediately implement a strong countermeasure."On January 3rd, the Ministry of National Defense stated that "will immediately, strong, and thoroughly countercliner any form of provocations", implying that the premise of hand is also provoked by the North Korea;Without use of nuclear weapons, the regime will be stable.US President Bynden and South Korean President Yin Xiyue have been clearly clear and rationally implied this logic: North Korea's use of nuclear weapons can lead to "the end of the regime."
South Korea may conduct seventh nuclear trials before the Congress election in April this year, and I don't take it for granted.Kim Jong -un is savvy enough, without reminding others, he knows that the seven cores are much greater than gain.In terms of military affairs, the six -core is the verification of hydrogen bombs in the ground explosion, and the seven -core either either the combination of air explosion verification nuclear guidance or a submarine nuclear missile verification secondary nuclear counterattack, otherwise there is no value.The seven -core public anger will inevitably be even greater; from politics, North Korea and any sixth countries illegally support the nuclear in politics, which violates the common privilege and core interests of the Five Changs of the United Nations Security Council.
After the Korean War, China and the United States actually grasped the "double dominance" of the Peninsula. The resolution of the 10 North North Korean crisis that the Security Council had previously adopted the Nuclear Nuclear Crisis was almost all submitted to China and the United States before submitting the voting.Once North Korea is seven -core, the United States is very sophisticated and ecstatic, and it will inevitably draft a draft of severe sanctions resolutions quickly, and even deliberately names Sanctions Kim Jong -un.The axis "" North Korea is deeply bundled, either in favor of or abandoned the relationship between China and North Korea.Once China rejected, the United States will quickly propose to hold a UN General Assembly, which must be condemned the new resolutions of North Korea. Although there is no compulsory binding power, it has moral binding power and is in isolation in China.Kim Jong -un's seven -core recruitment is not good for the United States and the China and North Korea. Such stupid things will not happen.
Kim Jong -un has no intention of launching a war. It will definitely not be in 2024, and it is also minimal in 2025 and later.The reason is simple. He is waiting for the results of the US presidential election. He hopes that Trump will return to the White House to ease US -DPRK relations and restore the US -DPRK peace talks.In fact, the author is even more worried about the Biden team to reverse the election and do nothing.At present, Biden's polls in Swing State are generally lagging behind Trump. If September and October are still beyond the scope of the polls, he is more motivated to play North Korean, Taiwan Sea, and South China Sea in the Asia -Pacific region.DPRK or China excessively reacts to help the election.
Political game: Comprehensive National Power Dueling
Kim Jong -un claimed to "never realize the unity of the country" in the Plenary Session of the Ninth Central Committee, but it is only the current political game. It does not have to be taken seriously, and it may not be true.For the Korean nation, the best ending is the unity of the Federation of South Korea. North Korea forcibly supports nuclear to solve security issues, and South Korea develops the economy to solve the problem of prosperity.A unified, nuclear, and prosperous Korean Federation is in line with the interests of the two countries and national interests, but it does not meet all the interests of the surrounding countries. For example, the reform of the Security Council in the future has enough strength to compete with India and Japan to compete in Asia's newly -added members of the State.
Kim Jong -un embraced the nuclear, the first imaginary enemy is the United States, the second imaginary enemy is China, and the third imaginative enemy is Japan. It is enough to deter South Korea's conventional weapons.The Forte Oil Estate's Economic Circle has been broken, and the Korean economy has been destroyed. It has not been able to slow down in 20 years.Yin Xiyue was too close to the United States and the Japanese, and rushed to the front line to fight against the front line. It was a serious loss of strategy. The beauty and Japanese music blossomed. The ideal strategy was to move North Korea's anger to move Japan.
Kim Jong -un dreamed of getting rid of China's control, the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States alone, signing a peace agreement, and continuing to have nuclear weapons to complete the unrestrained cause of grandfather and father.He is very capable and attempts to leave China and the United States, but this is not a single -headed head of state, but the national strength and elite duel. Even if he has the advantage of the first, any country in China and the United States can easily issue "gold".Joint United States, then he has no chance of victory.
The two camps of the "China -Russia, Russia, North Korea, and Japan and South Korea" are formed in Northeast Asia, which is in line with the long -term interests of North Korea, Russia, the United States, and Japan.Carrying off the United States' great pressure, so the three -way military exercise and three -sided talks between China and Russia were impossible.Some scholars in Northeast China are based on localism and fantasy in Northeast Asia's economic integration.North Korea Development ScriptureJi cooperation targets are the first choice for South Korea, followed by Russia, but in the end, China was selected.North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have always been big. Only when China's national strength has stabilized to become the boss of the world, the Three Kingdoms will strategically adjust the turn.
For civilians, as long as there is no war and no seven cores, it often watchs the "strongest post -80s of the surface" and jumps up and down. Isn't this very happy?Isn't it very happy to watch the political elites of the Six Kingdoms freely and expand their rights and interests for free?
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
