Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Zheng Zhen
U.S. President Bynden recently participated in the Indian G20 visit to Vietnam. During this period, the United States and Vietnam jointly announced that bilateral relations have been increased from "comprehensive partnership" to "comprehensive strategic partnership".
In Vietnam's diplomatic relations framework, the highest level is "comprehensive strategic partnership", followed by "strategic partnership", and then "comprehensive partnership".The United States and Vietnam were previously comprehensive partnerships and were lower levels. China and Russia had established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam earlier, which is two levels higher than the United States and Vietnam.The United States and Vietnam have raised two levels of bilateral relations at this level to reach the same level as China, Vietnam, and Russia, which is quite abnormal.
This year coincides with the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive partnership in the United States. In the context of strengthening the Indo -Pacific deployment in the United States, the Bayeng government trial hopes to improve its relationship with Vietnam, which is expected.However, the US -Vietnam relations do not follow the conjunction of two levels, which is unusual.
What is the great improvement of the United States and Vietnam relations?
In March of this year, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam called Ruan Fuzhong and the US President Biden, which reached consensus that he agreed to promote the further deepening development of bilateral relations.Since the beginning of this year, the US trade representative Daiqi, the heads of the International Development Agency, Ball, Secretary of State Brosky, and the financial minister Yellen have visited Vietnam.During the visit to Vietnam in April, some media have been extended by some media that "seeking upgrading the US -Vietnam relations into a comprehensive strategic partnership."From the frequent interviews of senior US officials, the United States occupies an active position at the level of raising the relationship between the two countries.Earlier in Vietnam's official public statements, they emphasized that it is necessary to enhance cooperation with the United States on the basis of "comprehensive partnership" and did not mention "strategic partners".
But the problem is not the initiative of the United States. In recent years, from Obama to Trump to Biden, the previous US government's initiative to take the initiative to take the initiative to get closer to Vietnam's relations with the driver of the Asia -Pacific or Indian strategy is common.The fundamental reason why the United States and Vietnam relations are difficult to improve in the past is that the United States is trying to subvert the socialist state power.In 2014, Vietnam had extinguished the color revolutionary risk incident of its country in 2014, and defined the smashed China -Enterprise demonstration as ideological struggle at the time.In recent years, the political changes in the South of Vietnam have also maintained the stability of the regime. Some of the pro -liberal liberals have been in the wild, and Ruan Fuzhong has been re -elected for three years.Why does Vietnam now catch the olive branches extended from the United States and agree to greatly increase the grade of the United States and Vietnam's relations?
In the final analysis, the situation after the epidemic has turned sharply.
Since this year, Vietnam's economic situation has been sluggish.Vietnam's GDP increased by 8.02%in 2022, making Vietnam a leading economy in Asia and even the world, but Vietnam is also a "special export -oriented economy", which occupies a particularly important position for foreign trade in its national economy.In the manufacturing industry in Vietnam, a large number of industries in the national economy are basically "surrounding foreign trade".In the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam's exports fell 13%, which led to Vietnam's GDP growth rate of only 3.3%.What is even more worrying is that Vietnam's exports in April fell sharply by 18%, making the export problem more serious.
Vietnam's export targets are mainly European and American markets, especially the United States is Vietnam's largest exporter, and the United States and the European Union account for 42%of the total exports of Vietnamese goods in 2022.In 2021, Vietnam's export ratio to the US market was 29%, ranking first.In 2022, Vietnam's exports to the United States reached US $ 109.4 billion, an increase of 13.6%.Stable exports to the United States are very critical to boost the US -Vietnam trade.Vietnam aware of the importance of the US market when the global economic slowdown, especially the economic growth of its country.
Secondly, the structural contradictions between China and the United States have continued to intensify since the Bayeng government came to power.In the US -led supply chain reorganization, Vietnam is an important part of them.
In March of this year, a large business delegation composed of 52 American companies visited Vietnam, of which there were giants in the fields of aircraft manufacturing, technology, semiconductors, finance, medical care, energy.When the US Treasury Secretary Yellen visited Vietnam in July this year, it was clearly stated that to establish the US -Vietnam relations and promote the diversified supply chain to offset the impact of China's tension.This time Biden visited Vietnam, many senior officials of American technology giants accompanied, and the two sides focused on the cooperation in the semiconductor field.The White House stated in the news release that the semiconductor partnership between the two sides will provide sustainable semiconductor supply chain support for American industry, consumers and workers.
This is equivalent to the process of decoupling chain in China and the United States, the United States sent the dividend of this semiconductor industry to Vietnam.In the United States, it is difficult for the United States to respect Vietnam's political system, and it is difficult for Vietnam to not be indifferent to the bait thrown by the United States.For Vietnam, upgrading the relationship between the two countries is a new choice made by the new situation three years after the epidemic, and it is the result of Vietnam.Vietnam has to find a new way out to solve the problem.If the bonus of Sino -US relations is available, there is no reason to give up Vietnam.
For a long time, Vietnam is very cautious about the development of the development of the United States. On the one hand, it is worried about the political hostility of the United States and the on the other hand, and on the other hand, we are worried about revenge from China.Don't worry about pressure from China now?Not.In August this year, the General Secretary of the Vietnam Communist Party Ruan Fuzhong said that Vietnam's development of the relationship with China is the first.This is faithful to China in itself.
Vietnam's policy has changed from one side to China to economically depending on the United States and political diplomacy. This adjustment is unusual for Vietnam, but it is not uncommon around China.This is why Vietnam can accept the great upgrade of the United States and Vietnam relations in Vietnam.For Vietnam, the biggest challenge is how to persuade China to believe that Vietnam only uses the United States economy.
Before the visit, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the Mainland Government's Central Committee, led the mainland government delegation to visit Vietnam, which has been on behalf of China.As for China, the crux of the problem is not in Vietnam, but how to resolve the United States has penetrated the hinterland of the surrounding area.
