Source: Taiwan Economic Daily News
In early June, President Biden in the United States signed the 2023 Financial Responsibility Law and ended the recent months due to the upper limit of debt, which caused the government to be troubled by the unable to operate normally.Biden also specially lived for this, claiming that the two -party budget agreement avoided an economic crisis.Indeed, according to the assessment of the White House Economic Consultant Committee, if the United States is on the verge of debt default, the economic growth rate will decrease by 0.3%, and long -term debt -free solution will cause 6.1%of the economy.In response to the termination of the US debt default crisis, the financial market celebrated the market. The world is like "the boat has no traces of water", and all activities seem to return to normal.
The upper limit of the US debt is no longer a question that everyone needs to be concerned?Or the market is short, and the famous saying that "in the long run, after all, we died after all," leaving huge US debt to future generations to solve it?We need to remind that the upper limit of debt in the United States is a compromise. It only temporarily cancels the upper limit of debt lifting, and is calculated in 2025 restarting calculations, and has reduced a specific expenditure of 1 trillion dollars (1.34 trillion yuan) as an explanation in 10 years.The compromise that known as the "financial responsibility" does not actually resolve the government's structural budget deficit; next year's US election, the checks issued by politicians will only accumulate more debt.
The current budget planning of the US government cannot continue forever.According to statistics from the White House Budget Management Office, the average ratio of the federal government budget deficit accounts for GDP. The seven years before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia is 3.5%, and the 2020 and 2021 are 13.6%.%; After the epidemic, the government budget deficit has obviously changed structural changes.
In addition, the White House Budget Management Office also predicts that since five years of this year, the US federal government budget deficit will reach $ 1.6 trillion each year.However, the agreement just passed by Congress has only cut 100 billion U.S. dollars each year, which is fundamental to make up for the deficit gap.Obviously, in 2025, if Congress wants to re -set the debt limit, its jump amount will easily exceed 34 trillion US dollars.
The United States has not tried to "balance budget" in the past.President Reagan emphasized the implementation of a small government that implemented tax cuts and could balance budgets. At that time, Congress passed two balanced budget bills.In President Bush and President Clinton, Congress successively passed the three budget balance bills, and finally in the first three years of President Clinton's first year with President Bush, the United States achieved the budget surplus of accounting accounts.However, since entering the 21st century, the American population is aging and the political and economic environment has changed. Including the financial tsunami in 2008, the governor's omnipotent mentality has quickly accumulated a huge national debt by the fiscal deficit.The GDP ratio rose from 31%in 1980 to 118%of the first quarter of this year.
The increase in interest rates in the United States and the Federal References has caused the government's heavy interest cost burden, and there is a negative loss of distorting social resources distribution.According to the estimates of the Congress Budget Office, US debt interest expenditures will reach US $ 663 billion in 2023, and will continue to rise in the future; this will make the government's interest pay more than $ 10 trillion in the next 10 years.Based on this, the interest of US debt in 2050 will become the largest government expenditure project; in addition to crowding out the national government expenditure and distorting public resources, the interest is mainly paid to the rich, and the distribution of income between generations will become the factors that have become unstable society.Essence
Some people think that many US bonds are purchased for relevant government agencies, and there are not so many debt held by the public.Indeed, in January this year, the US government agencies and the Feds' fellowship have a government bond of up to $ 6.9 trillion.However, this means that the public still holds a $ 24.5 trillion dollar debt, of which $ 7.4 trillion is purchased by a foreign government or investor.According to the estimates of the Peton Foundation, 20 years later, the public holding US debt accounts for GDP will still be as high as 152%.Americans purchase public debts will crowd out investment, and if the government monetize debt, it will impact the stability of prices and financial markets.As for the foreign government and investors who lose their confidence in US debt, they will accelerate the US dollar and directly challenge the stability of the US dollar and US debt value.
Although the United States is currently temporarily lifted the crisis of debt defaults, it has not separated from the predicament.The best way to solve excessive US debt is economic growth and time in exchange for a space for reducing debt burden.
Although the United States faces the worsening social structure and infrastructure construction, the Congress agreement still chooses to increase the national defense expenditure of 6.7%next year to $ 886 billion.As a result, the society does not expect the United States to have a high economic growth; after the upper limit of debt, the United States Anti -Council will bond a large number of debt this year and next.We are worried that the "model transfer" of financial investment will cause financial investment quickly; after the market is relieved, the market will still face the challenge of "the sunset is infinitely good, just near dusk".
