Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times

Industrial and Commercial Society

Following South Korean President Yin Xiyue, he went to the United States to visit the United States a few days ago, and published the "Washington Declaration" with the United States that caused strong dissatisfaction with North Korea. Japanese Prime Minister Kishita visited South Korea on May 7 to further improve bilateralrelation.Regarding the strategic deployment of the U.S. military, North Korea issued a warning of "the tension of the Korean Peninsula to the edge of the nuclear war". In addition to the significant increase since last year, the United States, Japan and South Korea will also appear during the Hiroshima G7 Summit on May 19th., Holding the Three Kingdoms Leadership Summit, the political situation in Northeast Asia entered the new era of "post -Cold War".

This year is the 70th anniversary of the signing of the United States and South Korea's joint defense treaty, and the military alliance between the two sides has been strengthened.In the past two years, the scale of joint military exercises in the United States and South Korea has been larger and longer than one at a time, and it is undoubtedly to pass clear information to North Korea with specific actions.The national defense expenditure of Japan from 2023 to 2027 will also reach 2 % of GDP year by year to actively implement the US -Japan security treaty. One of the most important reasons is to respond to North Korean missiles.Especially the missiles equipped with nuclear warheads have become more and more frequent and fired over Japan.

The warning of the "Edge of Nuclear Wars" this time originated from the "Washington Declaration" published on April 26. The US President Bynden promised to include South Korea into the "(symbolic) nuclear protection umbrella" to avoid being subject to North Korea.Nuclear deterrence.After 1981, the US nuclear submarine will also visit South Korea.In fact, for North Korea, which is close at hand, "close -up, long -range blows", political significance is far greater than military significance.Otherwise, if the U.S. military has nuclear weapons "nuclear sharing" in South Korea, on the one hand, South Korea will no longer have the need to develop nuclear weapons on its own, and on the other hand, this is undoubtedly a "ultimate guarantee" in South Korea, but it will inevitably cause South Korea and mainland China and North Korea.The relationship is "difficult to collect water", and the "edge of nuclear warfare" will become a century tragedy of self -realization.

The G7 summit held in Hiroshima on May 19, the United States will also hold leadership talks with Japan and South Korea during the meeting.From the end of April to late May, a series of diplomatic conferences with important significance. Aiming at mainland China and North Korea, political intentions are obvious, military tensions are inevitable, and economic and trade impacts will slowly emerge.

First of all, in the macro face, the United States -led international economic and trade organizations have not achieved results.In contrast, it has been led by China, from ASEAN to RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partner agreement) including mainland China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, which has been launched in 2022.After the former US President Trump withdrew from the TPP, the CPTPP (Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement) led by Japan (the Cross Pacific Partnership) accepted Britain as a new member this year, and both sides of the strait also applied to join.Facing the two major Asia -Pacific regions of RCEP and CPTPP gradually thrive, the "Indian Pacific Economic Archives" (IPEF) founded by the United States in 2022, even with India's participation, has no clear content of economic and trade cooperation so far.

Traditional international organizations and leaders' peak conferences, whether it is G7 and G20, or the Asia -Pacific Economic Union (APEC) since 1989, the announcement of the common statement is hosted by the rotation of a fixed member country every year.The implementation strategies that keep up with and can achieve policy goals in detail. Therefore, the substantial interests of economic and trade development are limited, and there is no forward -looking vision of "coexistence".

The host of the G7 this year is Japan. The rotating chairman of the G20 is India, and the United States will also hold APEC in San Francisco in November. When the global prosperity is unknown this year, can it be different from the past and more positive.The role of promoting the development of economic and trade cooperation is really not optimistic.

Secondly, compared to the "privacy" of the United States leading the International Economic and Trade Organization, Mainland China has long been promoted or participated in regional organizations with specific content for a long time.Including: "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" established in 2001, a member country of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, the "BRICS country" in 2009, and the "Belt and Road" since Xi Jinping served as President in 2013.Even the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" and "BRICS countries", which are successively incorporated into new members or observer this year.

Finally, the "shuttle diplomacy" in the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the result of the pro -American and American in the distance will not be conducive to the economic and national strength of Japan and South Korea.Japan's GDP growth rate in 2021 was -0.2 %, and in 2022, it only grew 0.2 %, and its economic desires were weak. During the ten years of the 2010s, GDP decreased by more than $ 1 trillion, which is an incredible loss of ten years.In the first quarter of this year, South Korea exported 38.2 billion US dollars in mainland China, a decrease of 28.2 % from the same period last year. In contrast to South Korea's trade surplus of US $ 55.6 billion to mainland China in 2018, the trade deficit may occur throughout the year this year.It will be unbearable.

In other words, if the view of economic and national strength is concerned, what South Korea and Japan must solve the dialogue with neighboring countries and the reciprocal economic and trade cooperation.Some international status.