Source: Voice of the United States
Author: Sun Cheng
Although the RMB ranked far behind other currencies in the international financial system, the discussion about whether it will replace the US dollar in recent years has always been one of the hottest topics in international geopolitics.According to China's official data, the amount of revenue and expenditure of cross -border transactions in March surpassed the US dollar for the first time, becoming the most widely used currency in China's cross -border transactions, and is considered another milestone in China to shake the US dollar.
Whether it is composition of foreign exchange reserves or as a payment currency, the proportion of this Chinese sovereign currency is only more than 2%, or even less than half of the yen.A series of incidents still worry about some analysts that the RMB ant points will eventually be burst into a thousand miles long dikes.
"This is a major change." Gregory Chin, a professor of political economics at the University of York, Toronto, said when talking about the first time the RMB cross -border transaction surpassed the US dollar for the first time."What we see is not only China's efforts to increase the use of RMB, but also here we see that its partners have begun to accept more and more accepted RMB.The higher the more confidence, the stronger and stronger. "
From buying crude oil in RMB to transactions with Russia and Brazil, RMB internationalization seems to be good.Last week, the Argentine government announced that it would stop using the US dollar to pay goods imported from China and switch to settlement.
On the other hand, the prospects of the US dollar are becoming more and more worrying.A recent report from Bloomberg News said that the US dollar is losing its position at the speed of "amazing". In 2001, the US dollar accounted for 73%of the global reserves at its position as its "indisputable hegemony reserve".58%."The market share of the US dollar as a reserve currency encountered amazing collapse in 2022," the report quoted Stephen Zhan, chief executive officer of EURIZON SLJ, said.The inventor of the former Morgan Stanley currency expert and explaining the "US dollar smile theory" and another currency expert who explained the U.S. dollar index compared to the global economy's change in the trend of the global economy said that developing countries have no ability to get rid of the US dollar for transactions.The market size is huge and liquid, but these are "not unchanged."
Five scholars including the University of California Berkeley Economist Barry Eichengreen, including Barry Eichengreen, said in an creative paper that is creative about the RMB status.The US dollar in the 1950s and the 1960s did not have the same. "
Graigari Kim at the University of York also pointed out in an interview with VOA that many people rely on many international data on the RMB often come from the Global Bank Financial Communications Association (SWIFT), but the system does not cover all transactions all transactionsTherefore, it is possible to underestimate the actual amount of RMB.
"For example, on the issue of sanctions on Russia, you know that if China and Russia are now using rubles and RMB, can this be included in the SWIFT system?" He said.
Challenge of Digital RMB
Nialal Ferguson, a senior researcher at the Hoover Institute and a professor at Stanford University, recently wrote in Bloomberg News that another reason for the US dollar to slowly replace the pound was that the US financial technology at that time was leading the United Kingdom, andToday's history is repeating again, "China has created an online payment platform with much larger scale than us in the West."
Since the first batch of pilots in April 2020, China ’s digital RMB has achieved the application of multiple scenarios such as salary, public service payment, loan and cross -border payment.
Graigari Kim, an expert at the University of York University, said that China is the largest trading partner of many countries. If these countries find that the use of digital RMB can efficiently and smoothly handle their business transactions and there is no risk, "Then it may be logical to transfer some of their business to digital RMB. "
On the other hand, the United States, not only the number of digital dollars is far away, but also uncomfortable with the status of the US science and technology power that the US bank payment method is still relying on traditional methods.There is only one private automatic settlement (ACH) in the United States and the real -time payment system (The Clearing House (TCH)), which consists of 25 large banks. However, as of the end of last yearThere are 2,124 banks with comprehensive assets.
Darrell Duffie, a well -known financial economist at Stanford University, recently talked about how the United States should improve the payment system that Bank of America has no enough competition in payment services, and the speed of innovation is not fast enoughAnd fintech companies entering the payment service market also face too many supervision uncertainty, such as the "stablecoin" payment system operator recently abandoned this business.
He said: "At present, when the user uses a credit card or requests the bank's exchange, the money will not be transferred immediately, and there will be serious delays, let alone high costs."
Given that TCH's system does not include many regional banks, and the price will be too high and lack of competition, the Fed plans to launch a "fast payment system" called FedNow this summer to achieve instant transfer funds at a lower cost.
However, Dafi said that unfortunately, the system will compete directly with the most profitable business of various banks, so they are not motivated to deploy FedNow.
No intention of giving up control for the internationalization of the renminbi
Although the internationalization of RMB is a established policy in China, a large number of signs also show that China has fully realized that the burden and obligations that come, and these burdens and obligations may bring huge huge brings to the Chinese economy.Potential risks, including the potential of currency value, and the impact of the Chinese financial system, such as the potential ups and downs, and short -term RMB, and the banking and financial systems are one of the weaker links in the Chinese economy.
Former Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that people often mistakenly believe that the RMB issued by China is the asset of the Central Bank of China, but in fact it is the obligation that the central bank must fulfill.For example, he said that overseas main body holds RMB, China cannot allow only buying mobile phone and other products, and cannot buy financial assets.
Syracuse University Associate Professor Daniel McDowell, an associate professor of political science, said whether China has really wanted to realize the internationalization of the renminbi, and has not seen China who has really gone to China.Promote the internationalization of RMB because the Chinese government believes that the benefits of internationalization are still less than the risk of financial opening, and Beijing's priority consideration is the stability of the financial market.
"In the past 15 years, we have seen some policies designed to promote its international use, but we have also seen many policies that reduce their appeal."And the author of McDonel, the author of the book of US Financial Sanctional Backlash Against the Dollar) and the International Bucking the Buck, said to the United States Voice of the United States.
Although China has been committed to the internationalization of the renminbi for many years, it is often necessary to crowned the words "steady" in front of the formal expression.The fellowship of the 20 major reports of the mainland government is to "orderly" to promote the internationalization of the RMB.
British consulting company D 英fi AdvisThe founder of the ORS Michael Nicoletos recently said on Twitter that the share of RMB in international reserves is still very small, the reason is simple- "capital control".
As early as the birth of the Chinese offshore RMB market in 2010, Xie Guozhong, an influential economist and director of the rose stone consultant company, had questioned the Chinese government who really wanted to make the RMB a currency.Essence"I think the answer is no." He said in a public discussion.
A report from China Guotai Junan Securities last month pointed out that the internationalization of the RMB has begun for many years, and the offshore RMB market "heated up until nearly two years."
Under the sanctions against Russia and Iran, banks in the United States cannot trade with US dollars with US dollars in US dollars, forcing them to settle RMB with China. China may be optimistic, but in recent yearsCome to RMB to a large extent is not the result of the Chinese government's promotion.
China has a different approach
The data of the International Monetary Fund and SWIFT show that in the main reserve currency and international payment currency rankings, China is ranked only fifth, both after the pound and yen.Even in terms of RMB cross -border transactions, although the recent super -US dollar has attracted much attention, it is not a cross -state transaction in a completely sense.
After calculating the data of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Reuters believes that the usage rate of RMB in all cross -border transactions is 48.4%, while the share of the US dollar drops from 48.6%a month ago to 46.7%, but ","This number is a bit misleading. "McDower at Xuecheng University said.
He pointed out that SWIFT data shows that about three -quarters of cross -border RMB payment is carried out between mainland China and Hong Kong."RMB is now more important than the US dollar? I think it is exaggerated," he said.
Although from the traditional point of view, the RMB is far from challenging the US dollar, and it will not sacrifice the strict control of its own financial system for the internationalization of the renminbi, allowing free exchanges, etc. Some observers pointIt does not mean that the dollar can be at ease.
Five scholars including the University of California, Berkeley Economist Barry Eichengreen, have proposed that China is taking a different approach and no need to fully implement financial liberalization to make the RMB a international currency.They pointed out that one of the shortcuts of China is to sign a currency exchange agreement with other central banks, so that other countries "have confidence in obtaining RMB from the Central Bank of China", and now they have won.
The paper they published in October last October stated in the paper entitled "The RMB obtaining a reserve currency status" pointed out that since 2009, the central bank of China has reached a bilateral currency exchange agreement with at least 39 central banks, with a total amountAs high as RMB 3.7 trillion, in addition, China has established the RMB offshore market in 24 cities around the world.(China ’s official Xinhua News Agency reports: As of the end of 2021, the People's Bank of China had signed a bilateral local currency exchange agreement with the central bank or currency official in 40 countries and regions.31 RMB liquidation banks were authorized in 29 countries and regions, covering the world's major international financial centers.)
Ferguson of Stanford University said in the Bloomberg News column that there are many things in history that have been unchanged for 50 years, but suddenly changed."This is the root of history that is unpredictable in history."
The founder of the famous political economist, the founder of the macroeconomic and geographical and geopolitical consulting company GreenmanTle said that this is why people have always liked the sun in Hemingway's sun as usual:
"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.
"Two ways," Mike said."Gradually, then suddenly."
