Comment: Although Indias population is superior to China ’s political and econom

Source: Ming Pao

Ming Pao Society Review

The UN Population Fund announced last week that India's population is expected to reach 1.428.6 billion in the middle of this year, surpassing China ’s 1.425.7 billion, becoming the most populous country in the world.This result has actually been predicted for many years, which is not surprising, but the two major elements of "world first" and "transcending China" have been speculated by Western public opinion as "the latest development results of India".It is even bigger to become the fifth largest economy in the world.In the past 100 years, the population and Chinese population have been Ding Dangda around the world. As the Chinese economy surpasses the level of medium -developed and its population has entered the stage of aging, the total population of India surpass China is inevitable.As the population continues to grow, India may face many challenges such as employment, education, environment, and public health while facing possible "dividends".From the perspective of past experience, the population of the population does not necessarily become an economic power. The reform of the system, the correct policies, the development of education, and the vitality of society are the only way to the economy.

Early display of young people in the population

The burden of employment into a double -edged sword

When India was independent in 1947, the population was about 350 million, and the population was about 450 million when the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949.As the world's second population country, India has always followed China.For more than 70 years, India's population has increased four times. In the past 12 years, the total amount has increased by 200 million, which is equivalent to adding a global fifth population Brazil.The great population country has not been an enviable title. Both China and India have implemented a family planning policy. India has even implemented earlier than China. In 1952, it launched the world's first family planning national policy to encourage "two enough".However, due to strong opposition, India's family planning policy is far worstty than China.China's population growth rate decreased from 2%in 1973 to 1.1%. Last year, the population increased negatively, while the Indian population has grown rapidly, maintaining an annual increase of nearly 2%(gradually declined after the new century).The United Nations predicts that India's population will reach the highest peak of 1.7 billion in 2064 and will be 50 % more than China.

The number of population is one of the important factors to measure comprehensive national strength. The "demural dividend" of economics also refers to the economic growth effect produced by the rising proportion of the labor population.The Indian population is young and young, with a total population of 40 % under 25 years old, accounting for one -fifth of the global population. The medium age across the country is 28 years old, 9 years younger than China.Although the birth rate of India has also slowed down in recent years, the absolute number of working age (1.1 billion) and the proportion (about 75%) are the first of the world's major economies.The economic growth of India has increased from an average annual increase in the late 2000s, which also proves the effectiveness of the "demographic dividend".The World Bank estimates that the Indian economy will grow 6.3%this year.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicts that by 2028, the Indian economy's contribution to the growth of GDP (GDP) will reach 12.9%, surpassing 11.3%of the United States, ranking second in the world, second only to China, second only to China.22.6%.

Due to sufficient labor and relatively low cost, India has attracted some Chinese labor -intensive industries to migrate to it in recent years. It is expected that competition between China and India will intensify in the middle and low -end manufacturing industries, especially in information technology and software development.In terms of, India has shown a special advantage of its English environment.Politically, the first title of population also helps India to strive for the State of the United Nations Security Council.

However, the population increase does not necessarily produce a "demographic dividend".Among the 10 countries in the world, only the United States, China, and India have entered the top ten GDP, while Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and other countries, and even the most poor countries.It can also be seen from the long history of China and India that the "first population" is not directly related to the level of socioeconomic development.

Although the Indian population is young and young, it is not balanced.The continuous population growth will also increase the pressure of water, food, energy, and environment.The population explosion of the youth is even more "double -edged swords". India has nearly 5 million young people entering the employment market each year, while the government can only create 1.2 million positions per year.According to the unofficial Indian Economic Monitoring Center (CMIE) data, India's unemployment rate in March was 7.8%, while the urban unemployment rate was as high as 8.5%.Indian agriculture contributes only one -fifth of the economic contribution, but 45%of the country ’s labor is far -reaching, which is actually“ invisible unemployment ”.India is one of the countries with the lowest employment ratio of women in the world. Last year, only 10%of women's employment was employed.In addition, India ’s labor population is not high. 46%of the population over 25 years of age have not finished primary school, and lack of technical talents required by high -end manufacturing.In addition, social unfair issues such as the surname of Indian society, the disparity between the rich and the poor, and the gender discrimination have all wastes or limited the role of population dividends.Indian Prime Minister Modi said 4 years ago that the "population explosion" has affected India's sustainable development. "If people do not receive education and are unhealthy, they will not be happy whether they are families and countries."

The development gap between the two countries is wide

It takes time to chase China

China has released the "demographic dividend" until the first 70 years of population first, and it was not until the reform and opening up. The gap between China and India's economy has also begun.China was 5 times that of India last year.Military expenditure China is three times that of India, the manufacturing industry accounts for GDP proportion, and China is nearly doubled in India.The gross enrollment rate of Chinese University has reached 60 %, and the high India has doubled. China has received more than 240 million high -education population. The newcomers in the workplace have received an average of 14 years of education. The employment rate of women is nearly 70 %., China -India's economic and social development is no longer at the same level.The population of China and India is easy, but China ’s first cargo trading country, the first foreign exchange reserve country, and the first manufacturing country’ s status, India is difficult to replace in the short term.