Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
On April 12th to 15th, the former President and current President of the Brazilian Workers' Party, who took office in January this year, will visit China for one consecutive days to attend its succession in Shanghai.Dilma Rousseff served as the inauguration ceremony of the Chairman of the BRICS New Development Bank, and it was rumored that it would visit the local Huawei Innovation Center. It will not meet in Beijing on Friday (14th) to meet Xi Jinping.
Lula originally scheduled to visit China at the end of March, but was forced to be detained for pneumonia.Judging from the attitude of Lulla's rapid change after healing, we can see how much he values this visit to China.The same attention is also visible at the scale of its accompanying personnel, including 8 cabinet officials including finance ministers, foreign ministers, and environment ministers, and five governors of poverty -stricken states in northeastern Brazil, and even close to 240 enterprise representatives.
During the visit, Brazil is expected to sign 20 bilateral cooperation agreements with China, from environmental, agriculture to education and science and technology cooperation.Among them, the sixth art -manufactured satellite construction in the cooperation plan existing in 1988 will be used to monitor the Amazon region.Under today's Sino -US confrontation environment, such cooperation may cause American dissatisfaction.At the same time, China has also passed on to buy 20 aircraft from EMBRAER.
"Peace Club" is Russia and Ukraine Breaking the situation?
In addition to economic, trade and other specific cooperation projects, Lula's visit to China also has a significant international political meaning, especially in the background of the Russia -Ukraine War.
Lulla's visit to China, followed by Singapore, Malaysia, Spain, France and other countries, and also overlapped the trip of the European Union's diplomatic commissioner and the German foreign minister's visit to China.On the one hand, it highlights the attractiveness of the opening of China's opening up to countries and China's increasing diplomatic status. On the other hand, it also shows that countries hope that China can play a more active positive role in the Ukraine crisis.
In fact, Lula herself mentioned a peace initiative called "Peace Club" before visiting the United States in February. I hope that China, India and other countries will join, and it seems to want to use "Global Southern" (the global south "(Global South) or non -Western camp developing countries make a basis for mediation for the Russian -Ukraine conflict, provide negotiating platforms, or propose a solution.He said last week that he believed that both Russia and Ukraine were waiting for others to come out and say "let us sit down and talk."
Whether it is Jair Bolsonaro, or Lula, Brazil has always adopted a universal intermediate position in the "global south" country on the Ukrainian issue.Bosonaro ignored the United States' opposition to Moscow one week before the start of the war in Putin.After Lula took office, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Brazil to lobby Lula to output ammunition to Ukraine, but was rejected by Lula.
Regarding the responsibility of war, Lula has always maintained "the position of the five big boards each", and once said that Zeelianzki and Putin have the same responsibility.Although he stated in early April that Putin could not "grab the land of Ukraine", he claimed that "Crimea can be discussed", saying that Zeelianzki "can't do everything."
However, Lula's "Peace Club" probably couldn't get out of the level of "empty talk" at this moment, and at most, he could only prepare some attitudes for the possible future Russia and Ukraine negotiations.
French President Emmanuel Macron visited the controversial presidential special plane during his visit to China. "" I think China has the same observation as us, that is, when the Ukraine is in resistance, we are resisting.When helping them, it is not when negotiations, but we still have to prepare for negotiations and make a mileage when necessary. "
If Macron's evaluation of the Chinese position is accurate, Lula's visit to China will not bring any substantial progress to the Ukrainian situation.
Therefore, the substantial results of Lula's visit to China will probably be dominated by cooperation in the fields of economy, trade.
Will the economic and trade relations between China and Pakistan be qualitative?
At present, the relationship between China and Brazil is mainly in the trade of food and raw materials.China became Brazil's largest trading partner as early as 2009.Today, 60 % of China ’s soybean imports, almost 40 % of beef imports and 20 % iron ore imports are also from Brazil.However, China ’s investment in Brazil is far from the United States, and the cumulative investment amount is still only one -fifth of the United States; and Brazil’ s exports to the United States are far more diverse than China, and it includes more aircraft, cars, each each.Planting high -value -added products such as semi -finished products.
However, the nature of China -Pakistan trade may slowly change over time.One of the potential lists during the Lula visit to China this time is that BYD may buy a car factory that has been discontinued in Bayia (Bahia), north of Brazil, invested 600 million US dollars in 2021 (796 million yuan) to produce electric vehicles.
Looking back at the visit of Lula to the White House in February, although he and Biden were both elected left -wing party veterans, each defeated the Right Madman (re -stage) in the election, and also experienced an attempt to overthrow the results of the election.The riots of the public can be regarded as the same disease, but in addition to talking about climate, human rights, and democracy, Lula and Biden cannot actually get any substantial diplomatic results from the United States.During the visit, the more conspicuous cooperation projects in the White House were only $ 50 million in funds to protect Amazon.
In comparison, it is believed that Lula's substantive achievement of this visit to China will be much more abundant.
Can Lula still promote the multi -pole world for more than ten years?
However, in addition to the issue of Ukraine and China -Pakistan economic and trade cooperation, the importance of Lula's visit to China may be on its symbolic meaning.As early as the first two years of its 2003 to 2010, Lula was the representative of the "Global South" and one of the main promoters of the multi -pole world.Behind the establishment of the BRICS organization, Lulagong was indispensable. At that time, he also focused on negotiating with Turkey under the official opposition of the United States to negotiate the Iranian nuclear issue (although Obama had supported Lula at the time).
By this day, Lulai takes a hundred days, and the process of moving the multi -pole world seems to be the most representative of the "de -US dollar" action.During the visit to Argentina, a neighboring Argentine in Lulla, the preparation of the establishment of a common currency bypassed the US dollar seemed to imitate the construction of the euro area.In March, Brazil also reached an agreement with China to let a Brazilian branch under the Bank of China bypassed SWIFT and the US dollar, and used CIPS and currencies of the two countries as cross -border bank liquidation.
On the issue of Ukraine, although the real -time results are limited, the Lula government is actually very active.In March, he secretly sent his foreign policy consultant to Moscow to find out. After this visit, Brazil will also visit Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov next week.
In the past four years, under Posonaro, who is known as "Trump Trump", Brazil, representing one -third of the Latin American population and nearly one -third of the Latin American economy, has changedThe exile country is average.Bosonaro only browsed the right -wing conspiracy theorist in the United States. In the Brazilian country, he launched a cultural war like the United States. During the epidemic, he questioned the seriousness of the epidemic and questioned the effectiveness of the vaccine.It has become the cooperation between Chinese and Brazilian governments.The development of Bosonaro's release of Amazon's tropical rain forest has also been very good at the international community, which has increasingly concerned about climate change, and even damaged the "Mercosur" (Mercosur, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) as members) as members).Promotion with the EU Free Trade Agreement.
Lula is now in power againNo matter what the international community stands, it can only praise the phrase "we are glad to return to the world stage in Brazil" -This is the evaluation of Tsubers, which is not available to help the ammunition.
Of course, from the perspective of economic strength, today's Brazil is not a Spoken Brazil during the past period of Rula.By 2012, the Brazilian economy once surpassed the United Kingdom and ranked sixth in the world. Now, after the declined economic stagnation of commodity prices and early industrialization, its ranking has fallen to 12th in the world.
Brazil, as the largest country in Latin America, is the "most popular politician" in Obama's mouth, and its symbolic influence on the international political stage still exists.Whether Lula can use such influence to bring a substantial change in the international political ecology, we will wait and see.
