President, just like the US -style football or top -level scorers. When things go smoothly, they often get too much praise, or they are overwhelmed when they have problems.Moreover, like star athletes, the characteristics of public life are largely unprepared.However, when the president himself tried to over -claim the credit in people's eyes, or try to cover up the so -called failure, their reputation was very vulnerable, especially when the media indigenally exaggerated the facts.In this regard, US President Biden is becoming a typical example.
U.S. President's term is not just about the president himself.It is also important that the political appointment from the cabinet to the administrative agencies and departments.In this regard, Biden did not leave any highlights.The Minister of Communications, Pete Buttigieg, was once a new star of the Democratic Party, but it was stained with poor and chemical leakage caused by the influence of toxic chemicals caused by the supply chain problem, airline shutdown, and the influence of the leakage of the Ohio train derailment.Similarly, Alexander Mayorkas, Minister of Land and Safety, has repeatedly claimed that the southern border is safe and worry -free. HoweverTrade a large number of fentanyo drugs to the United States.
Biden's legislative method also has problems.Since Congress should have the final decision on most issues (restricted by the rejection of the president and the judicial review), then to measure the ability of a president to do part of it depends on whether he can successfully fight for the two parties and continue after he stepped down.Support the policy he promoted within his tenure.As Biden himself said: "Establish consensus for all kinds of fundamental changes to ensure that the people can accept these changes and continue to implement it, it is very important."
However, Biden actually did the opposite.He promulgated a lot of general and vague policies.Compared with the benefits provided, these policies are too high, and most of them are passed by extremely weak party votes.Biden's unnecessary US $ 1900 billion (about S $ 25 billion) "US Rescue Plan" pushed the inflation rate to the highest level in 40 years;Among the small parts of the subsidy infrastructure and domestic semiconductor, the Republican Party is supported by the Republican Party.
As long as the opposition party re -obtain power, some large policies that forcibly pass the lack of support will be overturned.Therefore, since President Reagan's historic tax reduction and reform in the 1980s, each president has adjusted the tax rate up and down in the endless tug -of -war war.This policy formulation procedure leads to economic uncertainty, making it more difficult for families and enterprises to develop long -term planning.
Bayeng's age is high and often forgotten the word when the word is not lifted, making this reputation more serious.Many observers including Democrats questioned whether he should try to re -election (he was 86 years old at the end of the second term).According to a polls from the National Broadcasting Corporation, only about one -third of Americans believe that Biden is honest, credible or capable of dealing with the crisis, and only 28%think he has the spirit of the spirit of this position."And physical condition".Although he performed well in dealing with the Ukrainian war, his status in the public's mind did not recover from catastrophic Afghanistan withdrawal.Biden tried to depict this failure as "extraordinary success" recognized by the military, but the military senior management quickly exposed the lie.
We can also think about the saying that Biden's so -called reduction of the deficit is reduced by 1400 billion US dollars.In fact, related data shows that the decrease in deficit from 2021 to 2022 is the result of the expiration of huge crown disease epidemic expenditures.Maria Merginias of the Non -Profit Institution Budget Accountability Committee warned: "The White House is deliberately distorting the facts." Similarly, Moody's analysis company's senior economist Dan White concluded: "From the net worth"Look, the government's policy is actually increasing rather than reducing deficits. "
Then Biden claimed that he should not be fame for inflation to the highest level since 1981.When asked about this recently, he replied that inflation "I already existed when I was in office. Remember what the economy was when I was in office? The job opportunity was decreasing and inflation rose." This is obviously not no.Really.When Biden took office, the annual inflation rate was 1.4%, the lowest point in the past five years, and the labor market had restored nine months ago, 12.5 million of the 22 million jobs were eliminated by the government epidemic blockade.
Bayeng meets Trump again?
If a leader's speech is far away from reality, it will definitely lose its reputation.But credibility is the most precious asset of the president to achieve any important goals.Biden wants to be re -elected in 2024 (generally predicts that Republicans will repeat the Senate's control of the Senate in that year), they can only hope that the Republican Party will re -nominate former President Trump for election.
Bynden may be able to pay as expected.Due to a large number of attractive Republican competitors, we may eventually repeat the mistakes of 2016.At that time, 16 other candidates were divided into votes other than Trump, allowing him to easily get nomination within the party.Ron Desantis, the governor of Florida, is the only competitors who are close to Trump among Republican voters.However, Biden has to be careful.In the recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris hypothetical presidential candidate duel, Trump led Biden with 46%to 41%.
In addition, Biden will face some new unfavorable factors in the next two years.Even if the labor market is strong, the unemployment rate is as low as 3.4%, and there are a lot of job opportunities. A new poll of the US Broadcasting Corporation / Washington Post still shows that 41%of people feel that their lives are not as good as before, reaching a historical high.The reason is simple: Under the high inflation that Biden boosted, Americans are suffering from reducing actual salary.No accident, the same polls show that the ratio of dissatisfaction with Biden is currently at the second highest level during its presidential term.Only 7%of the respondents were looking forward to Biden's second term, and 30%of the respondents were angry about this (Trump's two numbers were 17%and 36%, respectively).
If the Federal Reserve can tame inflation before 2024 and does not cause economic recession, the probability of wins will of course increase.However, the United States is facing many huge challenges at home and abroad: Russia and China's expansionist acts, Iran's nuclear ambitions, terrorism, record debts, stubborn high inflation, political dualization, and long -term climatic risks.Americans are not expected to be pessimistic about the future of economy, finance and geopolitics.We urgently need a vigorous, thoughtful, honest, and united leader to lead us through a historical period of crisis.Who can provide such leaders?
Author Michael J. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior researcher at the Hoover Institute. From 1989 to 1993, he was the chairman of the Economic Consultant Committee of former US President Bush's Economic Consultant.
English Original: Biden ’s Growing Credibility Gap
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
