Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Author: Jiezhong
Chinese leader Xi Jinping went to Russia to visit Russia from March 20 to 22 at the invitation of Russian President Putin.As China successfully promoted Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also officially issued a 12 -point statement on the Chinese position on the political resolution of the Ukrainian crisis on February 24th, plus some Western media that Xi Jinping might be able to visit Russia after visiting RussiaTalk to the President of Ukraine.It is possible that the Russia -Ukrainian war that will be over 13 months will be used to reach a form of a form of ceasefire agreement under Xi Jinping, which will be more than 13 months old, which may attract attention.
North Korea War Mode: ceasefire instead of peace agreement
If Xi Jinping's trip is really the main purpose of mediation of the Russian and Ukraine war, it is possible to promote it. It is unlikely to promote the pre -war status of bilateral recovery, or even make some long -term arrangements for bilateral disputes.The "Peace Agreement" is compared to the North Korean war model co -signed by the parties participating in the Banmen Store on July 27, 1953.That is, the military representatives sent by both Russia and Ukraine signed a "suspension agreement" to stop hostile operations from a certain time.Switching prisoners of war within a certain date is theoretically in the state of war, but it may actually have a state of no war operations for a long time.
In the 12 statements issued by China on February 24th, the "ceasefire and stop war" (third point) and "ceasefire and stop war" (fourth point) were deliberately cut.You can see the clue.
As for the signing of the "suspension agreement" between the two parties, it may be based on the humanitarian crisis caused by dealing with the outbreak of the war.This is also in line with the content of the fifth point in China in China on February 24, that is, "increase humanitarian assistance to related regions, improve the humanitarian situation, and provide a fast, safe, and obstacle -free humanitarian access.Large -scale humanitarian crisis.
Beijing's calculation
If the mediation is successful, in order to monitor the withdrawal of the withdrawal of the troops, the implementation of the suspension agreement and the subsequent huge humanitarian rescue work, the international forces must be involved to a certain extent, of courseChina will inevitably play an important role in it, and even in order to make Russia feel more at ease, China will also introduce non -Western countries such as India and Saudi Arabia to participate together.
In other words, this may make the international supervision of the Russian -Ukraine Military Region, which has become a leverage in China to re -revise relations with NATO countries, and to attract non -Western camp regions.
However, although the suspension agreement is signed in accordance with the Korean war mode, it may be that the current Russia and Ukraine's military forces cannot achieve the goal of war., But is the Russian and Ukraine be willing or even accept the current ceasefire at this moment?
Russia will not exclude the current ceasefire
From the current analysis of the situation, Russia should not exclude the current ceasefire, although the signing of the "suspension agreement" alone cannot immediately lift the international sanctions suffered by Russia, nor can it be resolvedProsecution; but the current ceasefire allows Russia to temporarily ensure that it has been controlled by the Russian army's occupation area, namely Donetsk and Lugusk most areas, and the north bank of the Asia Shi Sea to Nieber.The opening of the river solves the problem of water supply on the Crimean Peninsula.
Although the current ceasefire failed to fully meet the "reduced version" combat goals of Russia after withdrew from Kiev and Northeast Ukraine, including the occupation of Donetsk and Lugusk;In the case of continuous support for Ukrainian armed forces in Western countries, the Russian army is not high in the short term to achieve considerable victory on the Wudong battlefield and firmly occupy the entire Wudong region.In particular, the joint control measures of Western countries have made it difficult for Russia to obtain components required to produce high -tech weapons. It makes it difficult for the Russian army to obtain significant advantages in the future, but even the quality of equipment may gradually fall behind.
The British Ministry of Defense pointed out in early March that the first Forbidden War Corps, which is known as the Elite Russian Army before the war, is the first unit to accept the latest T-14 tanks in 2021. Now it has to receive it in the 1960sA large number of T-62 tanks that serve to supplement war loss; these batch of tamarons that have been sealed for decades are also 50 years old, and they only accept part of the update and renovation.Leopard 2 (Leopard 2) chariot, even the earlier Leopard 1 chariot is not as good.
This not only represents the advanced weapons equipped by the Russian military war, have long lost heavy losses, but also the control measures of Western countries have also made Russia because of serious lack of important parts and components, so it is difficult to produce advanced tanks to supplement the front lineThe main battle troops, and this situation may not be overcome in the short term.
In other words, if the current situation can be suspended at this time, although the goal of occupying Wudong cannot be achieved, it is still better than disadvantages to Russia.This means that when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China announced on March 17 that Xi Jinping would visit Russia on March 17, the United States immediately explicitly stated that it was opposed to the main reasons for Russia to help Russia.
Ukraine is still waiting for a few victories
Because the current ceasefire is obviously conducive to Russia, the Ukraine administration should be unwilling or even dare not accept such arrangements at this stage.
The UN International Court (ICC) announced in China that Xi Jinping would visit Russia, that is, killing many civilians during the invasion of Ukraine in Russia, and forced transfer to Ukraine children to Russia, which constituted the crime of war.On the grounds of criminal liability, the arrest warrant for Putin was issued, which greatly improved the political risks of Zeleianzki's acceptance of the current ceasefire; more importantly, all kinds of advanced main tanks and steps supported by NATO countries, stringed stepsThe heavy equipment such as fighting vehicles and self -running guns has gradually formed a considerable combat power, so that the Ukrainian government should want to use these emerging weapons to obtain several important results on the battlefield before considering the problem of ceasefire.
Perhaps the possibility of Ukraine immediately accepts the current ceasefire. Therefore, in the special article released by Xi Jinping's visit to Russia, Xinhua News Agency does not mention the correlation between Xi Jinping's trip to the ceasefire of Russia and Ukraine.However, although the mediation ceasefire cannot be a few days, when both Russia and Ukraine are exhausted, China is still likely to be a certain mediation person. This should be Xi Jinping's calculation at this moment.
The author is a researcher at the China Strategy Foreign -looking Association and an associate researcher at the National Policy Research Foundation
