Han Heyuan

The G20 Group (G20) Foreign Minister Meeting was held on March 1st in New Delhi, India.The previous day, the Indian government announced the statistics of GDP from October to December last year, showing that last year India's actual GDP increased by 6.7%, and the name GDP in the name of 2022 in the US dollar reached approximately US $ 3380 billion (About 450 billion yuan), exceeding the former Lord of the Lord, Britain, ranked fifth in the world, reaching Japan's 80 % and about one -sixth of China.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made an optimistic prediction for India's development trend, arguing that after 2023, India will still maintain a growth of about 6%.According to this development momentum, as early as 2027, the GDP of Japan and India will reverse, which is expected to replace Japan to become the third largest economy in the world.

IMF's prediction is not unreasonable.India's population has surpassed China last year and jumped in the world's first.The UN world population outlook shows that compared with China, which reached its peak in 2021, the Indian population will continue to increase by nearly 1.7 billion by 2060.

The population is undoubtedly an important variable to promote the economic growth of a country.Japanese scholar Moridhimu has clearly stated: "People are the foundation of society, and the economy is only a upper -level building based on this. When we predict the future, the first thing to imagine is in the predicted period.What will it look like? What changes will they happen in quantity and quality? Based on the people at the time of prediction, thinking on this basis, what kind of upper -level buildings can be created, including economic issues. "

When a country or region is in the cycle of demographic dividend, as long as the policy is proper, almost all of the large economic development cycles are in the rapid economic development. This is what I call a large cycle of demographic dividend.Regarding this, it is also favorable to support the empirical data. The data given by economist Hu Angang is that the Japanese population dividend stage is from 1955 to 1995, which is exactly 40 years of rapid development of Japan.Similarly, the same is true of Italy.The data of Hu Angang also shows that the Period of Italy's demographic dividend is from 1975 to 1995, which is also the 20 years of the rapid development of Italy.At this point, the same is true of China.

In addition to the huge demographic dividend factors, the natural environment and the harmony, language, land rent costs and huge domestic markets formed by the natural environment and system have strong competitive advantages.In addition, it also has a nearly perfect external environment -the global geopolitical changes caused by the Sino -US trade friction and the Russian and Ukraine War all made it the object of all parties.

In the next 10 years, if India can improve itself and improve itself, it can provide public products such as: more open policies, good infrastructure, high -quality labor supply market with good educated citizens, integrity and efficientGovernment, fair legal system, and stable monetary policy will ensure that India has ushered in the gold for 20 years from 2020 to 2040.

But India does not have no constraints.For example, the low administrative efficiency brought by premature democracy and the populist consciousness that is too focused on allocation will restrict its development.In particular, under the long -term planned economic consciousness, the government's government intervention and control tradition formed.

The low administrative efficiency of India has long been recognized by the world, which is reflected in the port affairs.For example, there are more than 20 units in the Indian government who manage port functions, and there are 40 institutions and departments that have the authority of assisted supervision.It is conceivable that such a complicated and bloated regulatory system, decision -making not only unable to break through the barriers of vested interests and promote the development of the port. Instead, due to the lack of skin and pushing, it often leads to unscrupulous policy, poor supervision, low administrative efficiency, and difficult operation standards such as unified operations.Essence

In addition, the defects of the federal system have also led to the deep -rooted political and economic barriers of India, which seriously restricted the formation of the unified unified market in India and the advancement of logistics modernization.In addition, the stubborn surname system and religious contradictions are also constraints that are often ignored.It is due to these factors that it is expected that the Indian economy will increase significantly in the future, but it is difficult to have high speeds like Japan, South Korea and China in the past.

The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist

In addition to the huge demographic dividend factors, the natural environment and the harmony, language, land rent costs and huge domestic markets formed by the natural environment and system have strong competitive advantages.In addition, it also has a nearly perfect external geopolitical environment, which is expected to usher in the golden development of its development from 2020 to 2040.