Weida: The US strategic industrys thinking and planning of Utai

The strategic thinking of

The United States' strategic thinking on Taiwan is mainly concentrated in two major directions: First, can the battle of the Taiwan Strait prevent prevent?Second, once the war broke out, how can the United States and allies ensure that they have successfully guarded Taiwan?Regarding the first direction, one of the main issues of the US strategic community is that the start of the war in mainland China is a forcibly led sheep in the process of renewal of the country?Or is the current political and economic direction that may be desperate for the migration crisis?At present, the latter view of more possibilities occupy the upper hand.

Since Russia launched the Ukrainian war a year ago, there have been significant changes in the United States, namely the government, think tanks, military and universities, etc., and have re -entered the formulation, discussion, and judgment of the international strategic situation and direction.Activity inspires great vision and new thinking.

Once upon a time, China launched reform and opening up, the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union ended, and the wave of economic globalization began.Like Saddam in Iraq, Gaddafi in Libya, small nations like the Kim family in North Korea, the individual evils of Russia and neighboring countries, and the phenomenon of streaming terrorism such as the Islamic State Organization (ISIS).Becoming trouble, causing blows and sanctions, but after all, it is difficult to become a climate.

The general trend of the world pattern is relatively positive, that is, it is towards the global economic openness integration, social development democracy and the rule of law, advanced science and technology research and development and industrial chain cooperation, defense and security to carry out multi -party exchanges and cooperation, and jointly maintain peaceful development.In this case, strategic thinking and judgment seem to be particularly important, and there is a tendency to retreat to the second line.To solve specific international and social problems, it has become priority and mainstream, such as climate warming, exploration of outer space, intellectual property protection, new feminist movement, global nuclearization, information sovereignty and privacy protection, and so on.

But the Sino -US trade war began in 2018 has gradually woke up and realized that the contradictions between China and the United States have greatly exceeded the economic and trade level and moved towards all -round disputes and confrontation.With the increasing ideological differences, the two sides have also suffered serious conflicts on geographical hotspots, military situation, scientific and technological competition, and traceability of epidemic.Since China has strategic thinking and measures such as "two 100 years", the US strategic family and ideological community feel that this strategic plan for the United States and the West is not allowed to watch.New strategic thinking and discussions of Chinese issues and challenges, other relevant departments and institutions also followed up.

A year ago, Russia's invasion of Ukraine made it even more awake in the strategic and ideological world of the United States, because Russia made the cold war between East and West, and it became a large -scale fire, and it was real.The strategic thinking, field of vision, and arguments in the United States also followed a series of major adjustments, upgrades and innovations.

Putin fulfills the Russian threat theory

Limited space, here are focusing on the two hot strategic thinking and global planning of the United States in Ukraine and Taiwan.

In terms of attitude and strategy to Russia, the West has always existed with two factions: First, it is divided into Russia, which believes that Russia's existing state is difficult to integrate into modern civilization, and the national strategy is very aggressive.,start again.The other faction is to coexist with the current situation of Russia, and through economic and trade exchanges, etc., it has developed a benign and non -confrontant Eurasia and the flat stability pattern.

As Russian President Putin and Russia moved in Ukraine, it was equivalent to fulfilling the Russian threat theory, and in the Western strategic community, the Russian parties had the upper hand.The key to solving the Russian issue is how to occur and transform this civilization, how can it happen, so that it can also usher in a new situation in the development of modern civilization.

The U.S. think tank believes that the three major innovation laws in the technology industry are enlightened to promote the transformation of modern civilization that promotes Russia.First of all, almost all of the breakthrough innovations of technology are developed and opened by emerging industries, not now there are leading enterprises.This law looks a bit cruel, but it is really facts, the typical Yangtze River behind the waves pushes the front wave mode.Taking the latest chatbot ChatGPT as an example, it was launched by a new technology company that is not well seen, and search engines such as Google, but they have fallen behind.

The second law is the breakthrough innovation of major science and technology, which has never been from government departments, state -owned enterprises or military units.Government policies can encourage innovation, and state -owned enterprises and troops can promote the promotion of new technologies, but it is difficult to produce original inventions.The talented masterpiece of talents in invention has always originated from free and agile civil entrepreneurship, academic and private enterprises.

The third law. From the perspective of talent and resources, the elite of scientific and technological innovation is often from existing famous enterprise schools. LaterDisrupt innovative enterprises and technology, and vomit new for their own development.

The law is that innovation is often blue than blue, and sustainable growth rely on continuously introducing innovative factors.In the aspects of national progress and civilization, these laws show that either the existing system must continue to reform and open up and enhance democracy and freedom, or can only re -reshuffle to re -re -reorganize rivers and mountains, in order to effectively transform the traditional country's modernization. Otherwise, it will encounter it.Fate of the failure of bankruptcy elimination.

solving the main path of the Russian problem to become clear

In Russia, expecting the existing system to correction and correction, self -transcendence, the facts prove that the hope is slim.The promising future can only rely on innovation, let the core system deconstruct, and then reorganize, so that a new generation of Russian politicians with modern civilization thinking and governance capabilities appear on the stage.This should be the most reasonable and effective direction to solve the Russian issue.

At present, Putin has expanded and excessive force, but it shows a major flaw: its abacus was originally solved the Ukrainian problem, but it did not expect to provide a rare opportunity window for accelerating the Russian problem.Even though the Russian and Ukraine War could not solve the Russian issue in one step, the main paths and goals have become quite clear.

The Taiwan issue is very different from the Ukrainian issue. The situation of the Taiwan Strait has made the United States nervous and concentrated, and the new strategic thoughts and opinions have come out frequently.The biggest feature of the Taiwan issue is that once the war broke out, the United States and Japan can hardly participate directly and meet with the Chinese mainland soldiers.Once a conflict between the great powers, it is difficult to control the scale, means and intensity of the war.Therefore, the battle of the Taiwan Strait moved to the whole body. The geographical importance of Taiwan, the security of the international high -end industrial chain, and the basic value of defending freedom and democracy greatly exceeded Taiwan's interests and security itself.

The strategic thinking of the United States on the Taiwan issue is mainly concentrated in two major directions: First, can the battle of the Taiwan Strait prevent prevent?Second, once the war broke out, how can the United States and allies ensure that they have successfully guarded Taiwan?Regarding the first direction, one of the main issues of the US strategic community is that the start of the war in mainland China is a forcibly led sheep in the process of renewal of its great powers?Or is it that its political and economic trend is not sustainable. In a hurry, it is possible to make a lonely note that may make a crisis?

At present, the latter view of more possibility accounts for the upper hand, because if the previous situation belongs to the rise of a real country, it should not have a fundamental conflict with the value and order of modern civilization.For the force, the two sides of the strait are more likely to present a civilized process of natural communication and integration.

As for the latter situation, the US strategic community generally believes that in mainland China, it is likely to occur under the conditions of wishful thinking and misjudgment of the situation.In order to prevent this consequences, the United States' measures are the channels for maintaining high -level communication and calling for high -level Sino -US high -level communication.Smooth, at the same time, vigorously enhance the political and economic alliances and military security layouts that respond to the crisis of the Taiwan Strait, so as to "predict" and have no preparation.

Just as Putin once described Ukraine as the victory of the Russian country and nation, some people in the mainland also described Taiwan as a sign of the victory of the mainland and re -emerging.The accuracy and authenticity described by Putin has fully verified the history of the past year.The US strategic community believes that if it can be fully exposed in advance, and warning that some unrealistic thinking and expectations on the Taiwan Strait on the issue of the Taiwan Strait may be good, it may not be good for preventing and blocking the outbreak of the Taiwan Strait War in the future.

(The author is an expert in international cultural strategy in the United States)