Wang Weinan
Taiwan's public opinion community has already existed in Tsai Ing -wen's doctoral degree and papers.In 2015 before the election in January 2016, some people discovered that her doctoral dissertation at the London School of Political Economics (LSE) was displayed on the website of the British Higher Legal Research Institute.EssenceThis time, it was fired again, and it happened that it was getting hotter and warm in Taiwan.
However, compared with 2015, the movement this time is obviously much larger than then.Those who track and dig deep into this matter are not only senior media people, but also a university professor in Taiwan and living in the United States.University professors are well versed in academic rules, and most of them are green scholars. They have high credibility about this question.
The ins and outs of this incident and many doubts have been reported by many media in Taiwan. The author has no intention of picking up his teeth.As for whether Tsai Ing -wen really obtained a doctorate in accordance with normal procedures, the author has neither time nor the ability to verify.What the author wants to explore is to what extent will be influenced by the upcoming Taiwan election?
Looking back at the process of the entire incident, it is not difficult to find that the hype of the Taiwanese media for the thesis door set off a climax in May and June of this year. At that time, it was the time when the DPP was selected in the preliminary choice.What kind of hype of this matter is also a deep -green media person represented by Peng Wenzheng.Another common point of these media people is to strongly support Lai Qingde to play in the 2020 election on behalf of the DPP.
However, the hot frying of the papers do not prevent Cai Yingwen from winning the party in the party.At that time, many thesexs attributed this result to the strong dominance of the Tsai Ing -wen faction's rules of primary election in the party.The author also agrees with this view, but the results of the primary election also explained from one aspect that Cai Yingwen did have certain immunity about the political public opinion of the papers.
After the results of the preliminary election of the party on June 13, the relevant persons did not relax about the hype of the thesis door.I found it all to find a stack of scattered papers printing, and then placed in the public library for public consultation.This action may have some persuasiveness to some people, but for the future of Peng Wenzheng, He Difen and other hype, there is no effect in the future. They still criticize Cai Yingwen to continue to weave lies in order to lie.
Tsai Ing -wen has announced the graduation certificate and degree thesis, and will definitely convince some people.The second day after her announcement, that is, September 24th, the polls of the Kiss Green Public Opinion Foundation showed that only 25%of the respondents believed that there was a problem with Cai Yingwen's doctoral dissertation. Nearly 50%of the respondents were interviewees.Don't believe there is a problem.If the time difference is considered, this public opinion survey should be carried out a few days before Cai Yingwen's thesis announced.If she will conduct a poll specifically for the paper after she publishes the paper, the relevant data should make Cai Yingwen more enthusiastic.
In fact, since the end of September, several Taiwan polls with different political background have announced the comparative election polls for Tsai Ing -wen and South Korea ’s Yu. These data show that the former's support is higher than the latter, and the averageThe gap is about 10 percentage points.In other words, from the perspective of political trust, the papers that have been speculated so far have not caused much blow to Cai Yingwen.If the relevant person can't get a new evidence of real hammer, the time of the three months before the election is enough to make the papers the end of the crossbow, it is difficult to have a significant impact on Cai's election.The future election may still have ups and downs, but the main reason is unlikely to be the thesis door.
Everyone can see that this year's papers have been hype since this year, mainly in the green camps, and the blue camp is mostly a lot of people who eat melon.Since Tsai Ing -wen took office in May 2016, the deep -green forces have always suspected that her steps on the road of independence in Taiwan are not big enough. She wants to replace her with the opportunity of the 2020 election and replace it like a radical Taiwan independence like Lai Qingde.However, the dark green forces are not strong enough to control the personnel and policies of the Democratic Progressive Party.At present, the effect is not good.
However, again, it is not unreasonable to question Cai Yingwen's degree and papers.Well -known media people and university professors are unlikely to bet on their social reputation and speculate on something out of nothing.When Tsai Ing -wen dealt with this incident, he was proud and cynical, and then dragged water. It was not until late September that the papers were announced. Is she curious about her subordinates or family who was so busy that she had no time to help her go to the cabinet?There are so many doubts and flaws to be solved. If it is in Western society, relevant officials have already stepped down.
The most famous case is Germany.In March 2011 and February 2013, former Minister of Defense Gu Tengberg and the former Ministry of Education Changsha Fan both resigned after being suspected of fraudulent doctoral dissertation and after investigation.In September 2015, some people questioned the doctoral dissertation of the then Minister of Defense Feng Delin. After more than half a year of investigation, the school announced that although the doctoral dissertation had problems that did not comply with academic norms, it was limited to the guide that was limited to the dissertation.In part, there are no such problems in the conclusion of the research center, and it is spared.
Therefore, if you want to clarify the truth of Tsai Ing -wen's thesis, an independent and fair investigation is the key.However, in the current Taiwanese society, which is also an intriguing in the blue -green political fighting and blue -green, it is difficult to form a truly independent and fair investigation committee.The 319 shooting before the 2004 election is still a fog. The fundamental reason is that any party cannot convince the other party.The deep problem reflects the quality of Taiwan's democratic politics is worrying.Whether it will not be familiar with fading, then chaos, and re -qualitative change is the big problem worthy of our long -term attention.
The author is the executive deputy director of the Taiwan Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University in China
