Fortune New Tuesday (January 2) announced the latest Chinese manufacturing activity data, showing that in December 2023, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 50.8, which was 0.1 points from November.The highest level has been better than analyst expectations.
However, Caixin's data is compared with the data released by Chinese official two days ago.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, The manufacturing activity in December has shrunk to the lowest level of half a year..
Experts interviewed by experts analyzed that companies surveyed by Caixin's investigation are more small and medium -sized enterprises in southern China, and they may not be able to reflect the overall situation. The official PMI data released by officially released may be closer to the actual situation.
Caixin manufacturing PMI, which measures the Chinese manufacturing activities, rose to 50.8 last December, and 50.7 in November, which is higher than the expected expected 50.3 and 50.4 of Bloomberg and Reuters.This shows that the pressure of Chinese manufacturing has maintained an expansion trend while continuing to face weak factors such as weak demand, real estate crisis, and geopolitical tension.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on December 31 shows that the manufacturing PMI in December was 49, a decrease of 0.4 points from November, and contracted for three consecutive months.sign.
PMI survey provides the earliest information for the monthly economic movement of China.Because Caixin and official surveys cover different sample scale, geographical location and enterprise type, there may be differences between the two data.
Bloomberg quoted Michelle Yeoholi, an Economist Lin Ziqiong of the French Industrial Bank of France, still shows that the Chinese manufacturing industry is still in a fragile recovery. Caixin's survey may show that SME performance is slightly better than the official investigation.
Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China of Overseas Chinese, studied and judged in an interview with the Lianhe Morning Post. The latest PMI data released by the official at the end of December may be closer to the actual situation.He analyzed that the Chinese economy's current face -to -face challenge is that the effective demand is not strong, leading to certain imbalances in supply and demand; at present, China's shrinkage pressure is also larger than the original. This risk will be one of the main challenges of the Chinese economy this year.
On the other hand, the latest data of Caixin shows that the company's confidence in 2024 is still weak, and the Lukang stock market has not ushered in the opening of the door on Tuesday. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index fell as of 1.8 %, and the CSI 300 index fell 1.1 %.This also provides more reasons for the People's Bank of China as earlier in January.
Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the CPC Central Committee of the Finance and Economics Committee of the CPC Central Committee, wrote on Tuesday on Tuesday that it is necessary to have more policies that are conducive to stable expectations, stable growth, and employment."Entry" creates favorable conditions.
Xie Dongming pointed out that the official has continuously issued positive signals since the second half of last year, but the effect continues to be poor. The market is still waiting for some real policies, including large -scale stimuli, interest rate cuts, etc., and stabilize expectations in the true sense.
He believes that the People's Bank of China still has room for interest rate cuts, but the probability of being put into action may be only 50 %, because the Chinese leadership has not clearly expressed the risk of shrinking, and may continue to deal with the problem with a cautious attitude."If you are more worried about shrinking, of course, interest rate cuts are a better response."
