The densely introduced market rescue policy has not significantly improved the market's confidence in the Chinese real estate industry.Many Chinese and foreign investment banks and research institutions predict that the Chinese property market will continue to be sluggish in 2024.If it is expected to be true, this will be the third consecutive year in the Chinese property market, and it will record the longest continuous drop.
According to Bloomberg's statistics on 10 investment banks and securities firms such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS on the prospects of the Chinese property market next year.This has led to a reduction of 1 percentage points in the growth rate of actual GDP (GDP).
Affected by factors such as the continuous downturn and the caution of real estate companies in the first 11 months of this year, China's real estate development investment fell by 9.4 % year -on -year.Real Estate Research Institutions Ke and Rui estimated that the annual real estate development investment decreased by 9.5 % year -on -year, the investment scale decreased for two consecutive years, and returned to the level of 2018; it is expected to fall from 5 % to 8 % next year.
Morgan Stanley and China Merchants Bank International are expected to fall by 7%next year, and UBS is expected to fall by 5%.
In terms of real estate sales, although the central and local governments have continued to introduce favorable policies since the second half of this year, the property market has not fully recovered.Goldman Sachs and UBS are expected to decrease by 5%next year's real estate sales.The Beijing Medicine Institute predicts that the sales area of commercial housing will decrease by 4.9 % year -on -year next year.
However, Logan Wright, director of the Chinese market research director of Rongding Group, is optimistic that China's real estate development and sales will achieve low single -digit growth next year.
Wright said that the recent auction of government land heating up is a sign of improvement of consumption prospects.The use of construction machinery produced by Kobashisong Company in Japan has also increased in China, and this is widely regarded as one of the most reliable high -frequency construction indicators."The worst period of the industry has passed."
Allan Von Mehren, chief Chinese economist, predicts that the Chinese government will further increase real estate stimulus, including the use of central banks or fiscal funds to purchase excess housing directly.
The Institute of Middle Indications believes that the recovery of the Chinese real estate market next year will eventually depend on whether buyers can be repaired.The agency is expected to have the characteristics of the property market next year: the sales scale will still have downward pressure, the new construction area, the development investment or continue to fall.
The continuous decline in the property market means that the role of real estate as the driving force for demand for goods and service is weakening.Bloomberg's economic research estimates that the proportion of real estate related demand in GDP in China has dropped from 24%in 2018 to about 20%.
The sluggish property market has also shrunk the market value of listed real estate companies.Kerry monitoring data shows that as of December 18, the total market value of 181 real estate stocks listed on the two places in Lugang decreased by 27.75 % compared with the beginning of the year.
Among them, the total market value of 100 housing companies listed on A shares fell 20.55 % from the beginning of the year, and the decline was higher than 8.39 % of the same period last year.6.7 %.
This year's real estate is also the area with the largest number of A -shares.Oriental Fortune Choice data shows that 43 A shares have delisted in A shares this year, of which eight companies such as ST Sunshine City and STHEN are all from the real estate industry.
