China Well-known Economist, China Macroeconomic Forum United UnionThe founder Liu Yuanchun warned that the problem of unemployment in China may last for 10 years and will continue to intensify in the short term; if it is not handled properly, it will trigger other social problems outside the economic field and even become the fuse of political issues.
According to the Bloomberg Society on Monday (July 3), Liu Yuanchun made the above warnings in the China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Report in the mid -2023 China Macro -Economic Forum last month.
The report pointed out that the unemployment rate of the Chinese youth group will continue to rise for a period of time. Considering that the number of college graduates in 2023 exceeded 11 million, the problem of youth unemployment in the third quarter of this year will be even more severe.
The report specifically pointed out that the unemployment rate of young people aged 16 to 24 last year in April last year was only 18.2%, but the same period this year jumped 2.2 percentage points, indicating that the problemProblems and trend problems.The report is judged that in the future, the problem of unemployment in youth may last for 10 years, and it will continue to intensify in the short term."If it is not handled properly, it will trigger other social problems outside the economic field, and even become the fuse of political issues."It mainly depends on new market entities, and new market entities are mainly based on productive investment, especially private investment.However, the simple subsidy policy cannot fundamentally solve the problem of insufficient private investment. "The key is to improve the construction of the rule of law and the protection of private property rights, and the lack of confidence in people's confidence in the construction of the rule of law since the epidemic."
Liu Yuanchun also said in the report that the pain points and difficulties of China's economic recovery are concentrated as "five 20%", that is, the unemployment rate of youth groups exceeded 20%, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 20%year -on -year, and the revenue of local land transfer revenue year -on -year year -on -yearThe decrease of 20%, the newly started area of real estate decreased by 20%year -on -year, and the gap between the consumer confidence index was as high as 20%.He also bluntly stated that these five 20%indicate that the pressure of related fields has broken through the ability of self -repair.
Liu Yuanchun once served as the vice president of Renmin University of China, and explained at the collective study meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in April last April.He is now the president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
This report published on the official website of the China Macro Economic Forum is 110 pages. The writer also includes Liu Xiaoguang, a professor at the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, and the chairman and president of China Integrity InternationalYan Yan, deputy director of the University Economic Research Institute.
