Bloomberg Survey: China ’s expected rate cuts and reduce interest rates and increased

Economists receiving Bloomberg surveys said that China is expected to cut interest rates again this year and increase financial stimulus to stimulate the faltering economy.

Bloomberg reports that according to the estimated median estimation of the latest quarterly survey, the People's Bank of China may reduce the five base points of the one -year interim borrowing convenience (MLF) interest rate to 2.6%in the last quarter of this year.The forecast also shows that the central bank will reduce bank deposit reserve ratios in the next few months.

In terms of finance, economists predict that the government will launch a consumption tax reduction policy and increase infrastructure investment and financing.

The weak property market, the low consumer expenditure and the decline in export demand have led to a significant slowdown in the second quarter. Beijing is facing increasing pressure to try to boost the economy.Although the State Council of the State Council has not announced any new measures, the central bank's unexpected interest rate cut in June caused speculation about Beijing's introduction of more stimulus measures.

Blain Lee, a bank securities economist in Malaya, analyzed that in view of the relatively conservative economic growth goals of about 5%of Beijing and concerns about the RMB exchange rate, the Bank of China may mayWait until the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter of this year to cut interest rates.

He said that while the Fed and other global central banks raised interest rates, if the Central Bank of China reduced interest rates too quickly, it may exacerbate the risk of further capital outflow.

Among the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 18 people expect that the Chinese government will introduce more financial support measures this year.Twelve people predict that small and medium -sized enterprises, technology companies and green projects will get tax cuts or tax refunds; 10 people predict that national policy banks will increase loans or equity investment in infrastructure projects;Essence