Fangsheng said
In 2021, Xinhua News Agency released a news entitled "The" Three -Child "Times of Preschool Education to Accelerate the Layout", which outlines the prosperous development prospects of the Chinese kindergarten market;It seems that the situation of good development stops abruptly. Instead, the acceleration of fertility rates is that the fertility rate has brought about the "shutdown tide" of the kindergarten.
The national population birth rate (that is, the ratio of the number of births per thousand people) has fallen more significantly after the outbreak of the crown disease in 2020. It fell below 10%for the first time in 2020, reaching 8.52%, which was a new low in 1978;In 2021, it fell to 7.52%; in 2022, it fell further to 6.77%, and the population of the newborn fell below 10 million, a decrease of half from six years ago.China's population has also increased for the first time since 1961.
After the number of negative population growth numbers is announced, the outside world has high attention to the long -term impact of population changes on China's economic development, human resources, and international strategies.However, the Chinese education system is the first area.Children born in 2020 will begin to enter kindergartens this year; the impact of the rapid decline in fertility rate has begun to emerge in the Chinese kindergarten market.
Beginning this month, Chinese media have reportedly reported that there are "one child" in multiple local garden, and the competition between kindergartens has gradually become hot.Some kindergarten companies admit that they have been prepared for layoffs for three to five years.
Mainland China is not an example. In the past two years, there has been a wave of kindergarten shutdown and layoffs in Hong Kong.Hong Kong entered a stage of negative population growth in 2020. A survey of 235 kindergartens in the 235 kindergarten found that the average number of students lost in each kindergarten accounted for about 13 % to 27 % of each kindergarten, and more than 70 % of the kindergarten in the kindergarten was found to be.Fiscal difficulties occur, and 10 % of kindergartens say they may be suspended within two years.
The severe challenges faced by mainland kindergarten companies will gradually expand to primary school, junior high school, high school, and higher education institutions.Based on the seventh national census data, the Capital University of Economic and Trade team predicts that the school -age population of preschool, primary school, junior high school, high school, and higher education will be predicted in 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029, and 2032.After entering the stage of rapid reduction of students.
It has been reported that the scale of enrollment of the college college in China in 2021 is more than 400,000 more than 400,000 people born in 2022, which means that the birth population is rapidly decreased.Skywalted.
It is worth noting that China's fertility rate is expected to not fall straight.As China gradually gets out of the haze of the epidemic, and the local area has actively launched a recovery of fertility to stimulate fertility, it is still possible that the short -term fertility rate recovery will still be ushered in after the epidemic prevention policy is loosened.
Australia tried a baby bonus plan 20 years ago, which paid nearly $ 6,000 (S $ 8040) for each child. From 2004 to 2008, it once promoted the fertility rate of each woman from 1.8 to2 highs around.However, the trend of decline in local fertility rate has not reversed.By 2020 and six years after the plan ended, the fertility rate of each woman fell to 1.6, which was lower than the first prize plan.
Many population experts remind that the temporary surge and fluctuation of fertility rates will bring complex and severe challenges to the long -term national education planning and resource allocation.
China Kindergarten's current problem of excess quota, partly because of the short peak of childbirth from 2011 to 2016, the problem of lagging resource planning in preschool education, the configuration of educational resources and the changes in the population structure.
From 2011 to 2016, the fertility policies related to the second child in China gradually relaxed, and the birth rate of the population exceeded 13%.However, after the implementation of the "comprehensive two -child" policy in 2016, the population accumulation effect was released in the short term, and China's fertility rate began to decline year by year in 2017.
At the same time as the fertility rate is declining, children born during the peak of fertility are facing the problem of shortage of kindergarten places.In order to solve the problem of "difficulty in entering the park and enter the park", the four departments such as the Ministry of Education first proposed in 2017 that the coverage rate of inclusive kindergartens will reach about 80 % by 2020; one year later, the State Council issued a standardized regulatory specification on preschool education reform reform.Several opinions of development have once again strengthened the 80 % goal of the third preschool education plan, and since then, many places have begun to build new public kindergartens.After the kindergarten is completed, the kindergarten student tide brought by the peak of fertility rate has reached the end.
The problems faced in the field of preschool education are just the first rush of China after entering the era of the negative growth of the population. The source of the students is not enough to survive the source of students that may occur, which will have a long -term impact from elementary school to higher education system.
The fairness of education is related to the fairness and justice of the society. Officials must effectively plan and deploy in advance to ensure that educational resources can be flexibly kept on the trend of fertility and avoid the problem of mismatching of education resources for Chinese students; thisIt is not only related to the effective operation of the Chinese education system, but also determines whether Chinese students can maintain fair educational opportunities in the era of negative population growth.
