Qiao Jinzhong, a professor at the School of Education of the Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University in China, predicts that by 2035, the number of students in the compulsory education stage will be reduced by about 30 million compared with the 140 million in 2020.
According to the report of China News Weekly on Monday (27th), Qiao Jinzhong said in an interview that as early as the 1990s, the total fertility rate of China had dropped to about 2, and this number reached at least 2.1 to reach the reaches to reachThe normal population is more replaced.In 2016, the "comprehensive two -child" policy was implemented in China, but the effect was not ideal, and the policy effect was quickly released.Beginning in 2017, the number of people's births throughout the year continued to decline. In 2018, it decreased by 2 million compared with 2017. In 2020 and 2021, it will decrease by about 2 million than the previous year.Essence
He said that now the obstetrics and gynecology department has been tense from the past to the surplus, and the kindergarten has not been as difficult as before in the past two years.Therefore, the first thing that feels the growth of the population is preschool education. At present, the impact of this stage is the most obvious, but in the long run, compulsory education will be the most serious in the future.
Qiao Jinzhong's team predicted the changes in the school -age population during the compulsory education phase from 2020 to 2035, and found that the number of students in the national compulsory education stages slowly rose slowly in the short term in the short term.Decrease trend.From 2025 to 2028, the average of one or two million students is decreased each year, and the scale of three or four million is reduced each year from 2028 to 2035.
Specifically, the peak demand for elementary school degree appeared in 2024, which was about 4.85 million more than in 2020. The peak of junior high school degrees was a little later, and it appeared in 2029.In the end of 2035, the number of students during the compulsory education stage will be reduced by about 30 million compared with the 140 million in 2020.In fact, the total fertility rate number used at that time was 1.5, but the total fertility rate in 2021 had dropped to 1.15, and reality may be not optimistic than prediction.
