Early
Jingqiang Xinyun
Flying from Singapore to Beijing more than a week ago, it was a familiar and unfamiliar city.
This is the second day when China cancels entry and isolation. The international flight of Beijing Capital Airport is still very deserted because there are no other flights to land at the same time, and the process of entry is smooth.
I took my luggage and walked out of the terminal, but it was startled by the crowded scene of the Dushi station.Master Dushi said that after the peak of the Beijing epidemic passed, there were more people in domestic flights and a lot of business.
The traffic flowing slowly along the way, the master flirting: "Now that the blockage is blocked, the yang finish running out, no longer limit, this car can not be driven." It turned out that in late December, Beijing encountered an epidemic situation after the epidemic prevention loosening.At the peak, there is almost nothing on the road, and the official cancellation of the vehicle limit regulations.Now that the city has gone out of the peak of the epidemic, the capital returns to the "first blocking."
One month after loosening the epidemic prevention, Beijing came out of the turbulent epidemic, and the recovery rate was amazing.Back to the company to work, I habitually took out my mobile phone to scan the code. I found that the office building was no longer a layer of fence, and there was no security check in the health code.Stay in the corner.
The mall next to the office building, the bustling crowd of lunch time came back again, and there was a dragon outside the restaurant. Remember that when he left Beijing in mid -November, the waiter in the restaurant was in trouble without customers and restaurants.Essence
China suddenly unblocked at the end of last year, and the local area ushered in the peak of the epidemic without being prepared. Some people described that this was a major adventure that China entered.The result of adventure is too early to conclude, but looking at Beijing, where fireworks are reproduced, you can feel that the focus of governance has shifted from epidemic prevention to the economy.
Under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy has achieved positive growth last year, but the growth rate of 3 % is far less than the official setting of about 5.5 % of the growth target.In the beginning of the post -epidemic era, how strong the Chinese economy, which unblocked the epidemic prevention shackles, is a question of how strong the momentum of recovery will be.
As the seal control is lifted, personnel and factors flow, and the economic probability will turn around.Recently, the targets of economic growth in 2023 have been announced in various parts of China. Except for Beijing and Tianjin, the growth rates of the remaining 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities are not less than 5 %.If the base of last year is low, the growth rate of not less than 5 % is conservative, but the necessary caution is revealed behind conservatives.
China's economy still faces difficulties, especially some downward inertia may become deep concerns.
In the important indicators published on Tuesday (January 17), consumer data is not optimistic.Before the epidemic, China focused on promoting consumption and trying to increase consumption for the economic streaming of the economy.12.7 percentage points.The contribution of consumption to the economy also fell to 32.8 %, which was almost cut off compared to 65.4 % in 2021.
After coexisting with the epidemic, the consumer environment will inevitably improve. The huge domestic demand market in China cannot be underestimated, but it takes time to restore confidence and expectations.A survey released by the People's Bank of China at the end of December shows that the income confidence index of Chinese residents has fallen to a new low in 2001.Some Chinese economists warned the "inertia of consumption decline" last year, that is, consumption has dropped significantly within a period of time, which may bring psychological shadows and generate long -term unwilling to consume inertia.The Chinese economy in recovery is the most unwilling to see such inertia.
The inertia of lack of confidence has also spread among private enterprises.After the Central Economic Work Conference was held in December, the official continuously released signals to support private enterprises, giving a strong needle for private enterprises that have encountered regulatory storms in the past few years.China Vice Premier Liu He also shouted at the Davos World Economic Forum this week that some people said that "China wants to engage in a planned economy", "this is impossible at all."
On the one hand, the official big school is relocated, and on the other hand, private enterprises are trembling.Last week, a news about Shaanxi's first secretary to private companies set off public opinion.The "first secretary" approach was questioned as intervention in the decision -making and operation of private enterprises, and also caused a guess of "public -private partnership".China's economy needs private enterprises, and the development of private enterprises requires a fair, loose and stable environment. It is the most unable to withstand the randomness and uncertainty of the policy. It is not enough to make companies establish confidence.
The first round of epidemic peaks after the opening of the first round of epidemic after the opening of the opening from the end of December to the beginning of January.When it comes down, the social order is gradually recovering.For a 1.4 billionth country, in such a short period of time, the whole process was thrilling through the first epidemic peak in the first epidemic in the first opening of the first epidemic, but it was still stable than expected.
However, this is just the first step. From the experience of many other countries, the road to coexist with crown disease is long and bumpy.China will face the development trajectory of the epidemic situation in the future. Will the first round of the epidemic fall back, and how much will the social order will be disturbed by then, these are still unknown, and it is also the biggest uncertainty faced by the Chinese economy this year.
