China's official Saturday (December 31) announced the December Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for three consecutive months.The official admits that China's "economic prosperity level is generally declined."
The China National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Investigation Center and China Logistics and Procurement Federation released the China Purchasing Manager Index on Saturday.Data show that due to factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the index of China's manufacturing procurement manager index fell to 47%in December; the non -manufacturing business activity index fell from 46.7%in November to 41.6%; the comprehensive PMI output index was from 11 from 1147.1%of the month fell to 42.6%.All three indexes have declined further, and they are all critical points of less than 50%.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the two ends of the production demand declined, the manufacturing production activities continued to slow, and some surveyed enterprises reflected the impact of the epidemic, the lack of logistics and transportation, the delivery time of the delivery time, the delivery timeAt the same time, under the short period of influence of the epidemic, the employee of the manufacturing enterprise's employees was significantly insufficient, resulting in the employment index fell to 44.8%, which was lower than 2.6 percentage points last month.
China's relaxation of epidemic control measures. After the surge in cases, many citizens are unwilling to travel, resulting in a significant decrease in the activity of the service industry market.The National Bureau of Statistics of China pointed out that the Chinese business activity index fell to 39.4%in December. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 were located in the contraction range, of which retail, road transportation, accommodation, catering, residential services and other contact agglomeration industriesThe business activity index is less than 35.0%, and the total industry business has fallen significantly.
In addition, the Bureau of Statistics also said that the continuous decline in the comprehensive PMI output index indicates that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down.
Bloomberg analyzed that PMI data, which continued to decline in December, reflects China's sharp relaxation of crown disease control measures.EssenceThe government even had some confusion.
It is estimated that in the first quarter of next year (2023), the transformation of the zero -zero policy and the continuous spread of crown disease may bring more obstacles to the economic recovery.The peak of tourism may further worsen the situation.
However, economists believe that since the clearing policy has ended, the possibility of China's economy faster and stronger in 2023 has become more and more likely to rebound.According to the estimation of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the Chinese economy is expected to rise to 4.8%next year.
