Airfinity, which is focused on the prediction of health analysis, estimates that the death case of new crown disease in China in late January in late January may be as high as 25,000 cases.
According to Bloomberg, Airfinity wrote in the report on Thursday (29th) that the number of deaths caused by crown diseases may reach its peak around the second day of January 23.New cases of new infections in a single day will reach about 3.7 million cases in advance.
China suddenly ended a dynamic zero -epidemic prevention policy about a month ago, and abandoned the strict testing and sealing measures that have been adhered to since the outbreak of epidemic.Due to the lack of accurate data, the epidemic is difficult to count, and observer can only rely on external estimates and evidence.
The report wrote: "According to regional data trends, the team of our epidemiologists predicts that the first peak will appear in the area where the current case is increasing, and the second peak is the surge in other provinces."
The research company data said that about 1.8 million new infections were currently added in a single day and 9,000 deaths were killed.This is higher than Airfinity's estimated more than 5,000 cases per day earlier this month. It is in sharp contrast to only 10 deaths reported by the Chinese government's cancellation of epidemic prevention restrictions in early December.By the end of April 2023, the number of deaths caused by this wave of infections in China may reach 1.7 million.
Airfinity estimates based on data from various provinces in China and the trend after the abolition of strict restrictions from Hong Kong and Japan and other countries and regions.
Wu Zunyou, chief expert of the Popular disease of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference on Thursday that the peak of the epidemic in Beijing, Tianjin and Chengdu has passed.The situation in Shanghai, Chongqing, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan is still severe.
He added that a large number of people will flow during the Spring Festival in China, and the epidemic may spread and spread.In the case of the first restrictions on travel and other restrictions since the outbreak of the epidemic, it is expected that the number of travelers will rebound sharply during the Spring Festival Golden Week.
Wu Zunyou said at the press conference that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention plans to evaluate the excess of crown disease.The so -called excess death is the difference between the number of deaths during the current epidemic period and the expected number of deaths expected during the outbreak.This indicator is adopted globally because it can more comprehensively reflect the impact of the crown disease.
After the initial outbreak of Wuhan, the China CDC team analyzed the "excess death" caused by crown disease.In April 2020, the National Health and Health Commission nurtured nearly 1,300 cases of death in Wuhan.
Since the early period of the epidemic, China's initial treatment of the epidemic, including the transparency of the report, has been criticized.With the closure of nucleic acid detection networks, official infection statistics have become meaningless.
In view of the situation where hospitals across the country are full, officials have introduced on Thursday that there are surge in patients with severe patients on Thursday.Jiao Yahui, the person in charge of the supervision of the Ministry of Health Hospital, said that the usage rate of severe care monitoring beds in the country has not yet exceeded 80%of the red line, but some areas will usher in the peak of severe illness.
The surge in Chinese infection cases have caused concerns about the appearance of more contagious and/or more fatal new variants around the world.This has prompted many countries to implement compulsory testing and entry restrictions on tourists from China.China announced this week that the border will be opened again on January 8.
