Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said in an interview with the United Morning Post that China's recent financial policies have been introduced densely, and epidemic prevention measures have also been adjusted. It is expected to have a marginal improvement in the economy in December.
Chen Jing Shanghai Special Commissioner
It was impacted by the heating up of the crown disease, and the Chinese manufacturing and service industry activities were further shrinking in November, and more companies reported that employees found crown disease infections.In view of the prevalence of the epidemic, it is expected to continue to spread in winter, and the analysis believes that China's weak economic situation will continue until the first quarter of next year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday (November 30), the official manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) decreased from 49.2 October to 48 in November, and wrote a new low in seven months.This is also the glory line of the official PMI for the second consecutive month, and it has shrunk.
Production, new orders, raw material inventory, and employee indexes in the manufacturing PMI have intensified their shrinking in November, and the supplier distribution time index has also further decreased, showing that the supply chain is blocked.
The non -manufacturing PMI that measures the construction and service industry decreases from 48.7 in October to 46.7, which is lower than the market expectations of 48, and fell for the fifth consecutive month.The business activities indexes of road transportation, aviation transportation, accommodation, catering, and cultural and sports entertainment are less than 38, and the total business volume has fallen significantly.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, was interpreted by multiple factors such as multi -faceted and wide -frequency issues in the domestic epidemic point and more complicated and severe international environment.The epidemic has a adverse effect on the production and operation of some enterprises, the slowdown in production activities, and the decrease in product order.In some areas, the epidemic is greatly affected, the market activity is reduced, and the recovery of the service industry has slowed down.
According to the investigation of more than 2,400 Chinese companies in mid -to -late November November, 53 % of the company found at least one crown disease case in mid -to -late November in mid -to -late November.It is also the highest level since January last year.Because November is usually not the peak of the crown disease, the brown book report is expected to continue to rise in winter.
Interviewed enterprises: Revenue and profits appeared two -digit declines year -on -year last month
The interviewed companies also reported that the company's revenue and profits had double -digit declines year -on -year last month, and factory production, domestic and export orders all slowed down significantly.The brown book report pointed out that Chinese corporate indicators are deteriorating, and the situation in the first quarter of next year may be worse.
Facing the continuous economic pressure, China's financial management has recently moved frequently.
The People's Bank of China has lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions and introduced 16 measures for the property market.The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced this week that it will restore listed real estate companies and re -financing of listed companies involving housing, and shoot the third arrow that helps housing enterprises financing.
At the same time, epidemic prevention policies are gradually turning.Chinese officials demanded that this week to accelerate the rate of vaccination rate for the elderly, and epidemic prevention officials will no longer mention dynamic clearance at the press conference on Tuesday (November 29).The Beijing Beijing News published a report on crown diseases. Shanghai Surging News also sent a message to find a recovery of crown disease to break the public's panic in the virus.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still stated on Tuesday that, in view of the epidemic prevention restrictions and the property market dilemma, IMF may have to reduce the forecast of China's economic growth.IMF is currently expected to increase by 3.2 % of China's GDP this year, an increase of 4.4 % next year.
Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that both ends of supply and demand in the past two months have been hit by the epidemic.Recently, financial policies have been densely introduced, and epidemic prevention measures have also been adjusted. It is expected to have a marginal improvement in the economy in December.However, because the first two months of the fourth quarter have been hit hard, the annual economic growth may occur from the previous quarter, and the annual economic growth may be only about 3 %.
Wang Jun judged that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of next year will improve. However, it takes a period of time due to the stability of the property market and the rise of consumption recovery. In addition, the first quarter of this year will form a higher comparison base, and the year -on -year growth is still not optimistic.He is expected that the economy will be low in the whole year next year, and the trend will be treated first.
