The Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) issued a report as early as January this year, reminding the United States to fight against China and support Ukraine against Russia, but the domestic defense industry foundation in the United States has not been fully prepared.The report mentioned that some types of weapon systems and ammunition in the United States are exhausted, such as "thorns" to air missiles, 155mm howitzers and ammunition, etc., but the speed of supplementing weapon inventory is slow.Consumption speed.Not only that, the report refers that the foundation of the defense industry in the United States is still operating in the rhythm of the peaceful environment. Once a major regional conflict is encountered, a large number of weapons consumption will definitely exceed the inventory quickly, which will weaken the ability of the US military for a long time.
Today, after nearly a half year, these problems may appear sooner or later.What countries are concerned about is that Russia and Ukraine may stop the war?What is the current attitude of Europe and the United States and China, and continue to support it?Or is the position loosen according to the situation?
Economist: Ukraine and time race strive for counterattacks to win
The Economist analysis pointed out that since Russia had invaded in February 2022, Ukraine has won a series of hardware that Western allies unwilling to provide at first, such as tanks, fighters and cluster bombs.In order to ensure that the counterattack is successful, Ukraine has requested more excellent weapons from the United States, including the landmark small diameter bomb (GLSDB) with a range of about 150 kilometers, and the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a range of 297 kilometers.The United States has promised to provide GLSDB, but it has not yet arrived. As for ATACMS, the United States has no statement.
Although the United States is a global military power, the U.S. military is deployed in various strategic places in the world. It has a huge demand for military fire. Ukraine's military assistance must be a burden on the United States.Since the outbreak of the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than $ 40 billion (about S $ 54 billion) for military aid, which is the largest military aid country.Although Russia has repeatedly suffered setbacks, it has continued to launch intensive air strikes. The Russian army was unexpectedly resistant, or Western countries were expected.In addition, Ukraine adopts a war -consuming strategy, which requires the long -term sources of military aid in the United States and NATO, which is actually testing the military supply capacity of the United States and NATO.
The United States has always provided military aid for Ukraine in a timely manner based on the development of the war. It is cautious, because the White House has always been worried that the situation will be upgraded and will involve NATO in the war. At that time, it will be difficult to control the situation.Ukraine's counterattack to win a victory and must run with time.Economists analyze that the Ukrainian army must achieve a certain degree of success before the autumn hinders the attack.Because Ukraine "needs victory to encourage the morale of the soldiers and civilians, it requires it (victory) to maintain the confidence of the allies to win Ukraine. They also need it to let the Kremlin's power (Putin) believe that he resorted to the war.It will bring worse consequences. "
Some international news agencies and think tanks have briefly calculated the degree of fire consumption in the Russian army.The British Institute of International Strategy (IISS) estimates that there are still about 1.3 million soldiers in the Russian army, of which there are still 550,000 ground troops who can fight.The Russian army still has 4458 governor -made grenades and more than 1,000 tanks. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, Russia believes that there are still about 900 fighters and 120 bombers.
According to Newsweek, Ukraine claims that since the start of the war, it has destroyed more than 5,000 grenades, 710 rocket launchers, and more than 2,000 tanks, but it is generally believed that this data has been exaggerated.
As for the number of casualties in Russia and Ukraine, the number of casualties announced by Russia is less than 10,000. Norway's estimated war in January this year has caused about 180,000 Russian and more than 100,000 Ukraine casualties.The United States has also made estimates, but these are difficult to verify.
Scholar: The negotiation of the armistice will not happen in the near future
The invaded Ukraine did not shrink, and it was stubborn to the end. In the end, who wins in the war, Europe, the United States and Russia are critical.
James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Technology Rajerinan International Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the battle between Russia and Ukraine is becoming increasingly fierce.Estimation.Nevertheless, he believes that the off -war negotiations will not happen in the near future.
He analyzed that Russian President Putin naturally hoped that the West's support for Ukraine would weaken, but the Bayeng government in the United States will continue to support Ukraine against Russia. This position will not change and will remain until the Presidential election next November.After that, whether the US position will change depends on which party candidate will win in the presidential election.
Russia, which has consumed a lot of military power, can it continue to consume?In this regard, Dost said: "Russia will not give up easily. Although the war has paid Russia a heavy price and suffered major losses, they will still carry it hard."
Military experts: No signs show that Putin is willing to end the conflict
Michael Kofman, US military expert, pointed out that there are few signs that Putin is willing to end the conflict at present.In three years or fourth year, Russia may still exhaust the power of the Ukrainian army. Of course, these assumptions may be wrong, but as long as Moscow believes that time is still on the side of Russia, it may do this. "
Lawrence Freedman, a war researcher at King College of London, said that Russian President Putin faced more and more pressure, and he needed a strategy to show that Russia still has a way to victory."Right now, this has become a long -lasting battle. Just as Putin must hope that Ukraine and Western countries will be dragged down before Russia./P>
Ukraine has begun to attack Moscow successively, and Ukraine President Zernezki has warned at the end of last month that bringing war to Russia was "an inevitable, natural and fair process."
Domytro Natalukha, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament Economic Affairs Committee, indicates that Ukraine may end the war with Russia through negotiations, but the prerequisite is that Ukraine must start negotiations in the most favorable circumstances."When Russia just wants to surrender Ukraine and considers other choices, it should not be rushed to negotiate when Russia just wants to surrender. Now that negotiation means accepting the conditions for Putin. If Russia is further frustrated on the battlefield, negotiations canStart at a better starting point."
In addition, more than 40 countries such as the United States, China and India have participated in Ukraine Peace Summit , although there was no declaration after the meeting, the participants agreed to discuss Ukraine's 10 -point peace plan previously proposed.This is a new development that helps to break the deadlock, especially from European countries that representatives of various countries agree to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity must be the core of any peaceful solution.
Doroxi interviewed that the Gada Conference has not achieved significant results, which is not surprising. "But what is important is that this meeting gathers many countries and strives to promote the consensus on how to solve the issue of the Russian and Ukraine War.This is the point of which is meaningful. "
Saudi Arabia did not invite Russia to participate in the summit, and Ukraine won the support of countries outside the West through the summit.Duoxi said that this is a step for Ukraine to strive for more non -Western countries, and how will it develop next to it.
