International special manuscript: 23 countries queue up to ＂knock bricks＂ BRICS fiv

The 15th BRICS Leader Summit is scheduled to be held in Johannesburg, South Africa from August 22 to 24. This is the first physical summit for the first time after the outbreak of the crown disease epidemic.Focus on issues.

The five BRICS countries include China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa.Naledi Pandor, the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, the rotating chairman of South Africa, on Monday (August 7) on Monday (August 7) that the leaders of 23 countries officially expressed their intention to join the BRICS mechanism, and in additionMany other countries have entered the meeting to conduct informal consultations.

The 23 countries that have been applied include Argentina, Ethiopia, Algeria, Cuba, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Thailand and Vietnam.

The reasons why countries hope to join the BRICS family are different. For example, Iran wants to expand the international market access to bypass the severe sanctions that bypass the West;Hope to consolidate regional and international positions.However, hoping that global economic governance becomes tolerance, it should be the common voice of many countries.

Professor Liao Zhenyang, Dean of the Academy of Humanities, Art and Social Sciences of Nanyang University of Technology, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: "The BRICS mechanism expresses some major global southern economies to get rid of the global financial order led by the United States and realize diversificationWish. "

Liao Zhenyang said that many countries are eager to achieve economic diversification and de -US dollar, so an alternative global financial order is attractive to these countries.He pointed out: "It should be noted that they are not to replace the existing global financial order, but just create options."

Seeking hedge risk in developing countries

Applicants also generally want to open the door to new trade and investment opportunities.Zhu Yongbiao, a professor and executive director of the Lanzhou University Belt and Road Research Center, pointed out in an interview with the China News Agency that the global situation in the past year has not been good, but the Vancouver countries still maintain a high growth rate to inject positive energy into the global economic recovery, so that this can make thisThe stability and prospects of the cooperation mechanism are more attractive.

At the same time, the United States has frequently implemented a trade war on other countries, and the "weaponization" of the US dollar has destroyed the risk of developing countries' confidence in the US dollar and reminding them to put eggs in a basket.US Foreign Policy Magazine reported last month that countries that were sanctioned by a certain form of US in the United States, the total domestic product (GDP) accounted for more than one -fifth of the world.

Although Western countries have set their sights on Asia and developing countries in recent years, some opinions believe that this is mainly due to the purpose of checking the international influence of China's international influence, and whether this concern can be questioned for a long time.The addition of the BRICS mechanism is therefore regarded as a "hedge risk" by some countries.

Ryan Berg, director of the American Think Tank International Strategy Research Center (CSIS), said in an interview with the Japan Times that for many countries, adding a multilateral organization that gathers global southern countries can offset themThe pressure of selecting the side team on specific issues allows them to maintain certain policies.

In addition, emerging and developing countries often seek international assistance when they fall into financial difficulties.New Development Bank established by BRICS countries can provide them with alternative options other than Western leading agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the conditions are not so stringent.

Improve the Cost -of -the -A bargaining ability

Jim O'Neill, then the chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group in 2001, was proposed for the first time that he put together the emerging markets with huge economic potentials Brazil, Russia, India and China with huge economic potential at the time.The first letters named "BRIC" (BRIC "named" BRIC ".In September 2006, the Foreign Minister of BRICS held a first meeting during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, opening a prelude to the BRICS countries.In 2009, the leaders of the four BRICS countries held their first summit in Russia.

In 2010, the BRICS countries were included in South Africa and renamed the BRICS.In June last year, China proposed a re -expansion initiative. China -India Foreign Minister agreed to start the expansion process while meeting with Jakarta last month.

Many developing countries have queued "knocking bricks", highlighting the advanced organizations that are committed to defending the interests of global southern countries as a advanced organization, and their role and status are generally affirmed.Anil Sooklal, a South African BRICS affairs coordinator, described that the BRICS countries have become a powerful global forces to bring change to the world. Starting from the summit in August this year, "the BRICS countries will promote global geopolitical politicsThe structure has changed dramatically. "

A powerful BRICS Group may play a role in checking and balanced multilateral institutions and other Western -led multilateral institutions, making global policies and agenda more tolerant, and can also reflect the opinions and needs of developing countries.EssenceThe former Economic Counselor of the White House said: "The power of the BRICS countries is that it has the potential of G7 or 20 of the G7 or 20 of the G20 (G20) of the global southern countries."The bargaining ability will also be strengthened.

World Bank data shows that the five countries of the BRICS account for more than 42%of the global population, 30%of global land area, 23%of the global economic aggregate, and 18%of global trade.According to the data of the British era macro consulting company, calculated by the purchasing power parity, the Golden Brick Five Kingdoms in 2022 accounted for 31.5%of the global GDP, which has surpassed 30.7%of the G7.

As of now, the biggest achievement of the BRICS mechanism is to establish a new development bank and the Continent Reserve Arrangement.New Development Bank provides financing for infrastructure construction and sustainable development projects of BRICS countries and other developing countries. In addition to the five BRICS countries, the UAE, Uruguay, Bangladesh and Egypt have also joined; emergency reserve arrangements are to help pay in payment.There are difficult member states.

Rajan Kumar, associate professor of the School of International Research, India's Javaharaer Naciru University, described that the BRICS countries are no longer regarded as "abbreviations without substantial content", but new in international politics "brand".

However, there are many difficulties and uncertainty in the BRICS countries to lighten the signboards.Since the establishment of the new Development Bank, the total loan has been only about 33 billion US dollars (about S $ 44.5 billion), and the World Bank Single promised to provide a $ 104 billion loan in the fiscal year in 2022.The voting right of the BRICS Five Kingdoms was 13.24%and 14.91%in the IMF, and it is still difficult to get rid of the constraints of the United States and G7.

Anu Anwar, a researcher at the School of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, pointed out in a visit to the South China Morning Post that new members will definitely bring more funds to the BRICS mechanism, but "this will not eliminate the World Bank and IMF as the global financial market supervisionTraditional characters of stable people ".

Different members of the expansion position are worried about the dilution of the right to speak

Expansion is the consensus of the five BRICS countries, but for how to carry out, the five countries have not yet introduced clear standards, procedures, and guidance principles.In terms of adding new members, the five countries have different considerations.

As the Sino -US trade relations continue to be tense, China is vigorously promoting the expansion of the BRICS family. Because of Western sanctions, Russia, which is increasingly isolated in the world, is also willing to make more friends through the BRICS mechanism.

India and Brazil have reserved the absorption of new members because they are worried about their right to speak.South Africa, which has the weakest economic strength in the five countries, also supports expansion, but the addition of other African countries will undoubtedly weaken South Africa's position in the BRICS Group.

Jon Harrison, the managing director of the Macro Strategy of Consulting Company TS LOMBARD, said: "India and Brazil may think that the expansion of the BRICS mechanism is more likely, because the louder the group, the more their voice will becomeThe smaller, China will still be the leader of this league. "

According to government sources quoted by the Saint Paul Page of Brazil, China ’s position is to support all interested countries to become the official or prospective members of the BRICS countries, but the Brazilian government believes that the existing scale of the BRICS countries has given Brazil in other other scale to other other.The weight and attention that the international forum cannot be enjoyed, and the chaotic expansion does not conform to Brazil's interests.

Reporting: "Brazil representative reiterated that it is important to discuss the standards of any BRICS mechanism reform. The selection of candidate countries must also follow the rules such as geographical balance, population and economic scale." The report said that India is not too muchIt may agree to the "unrestricted expansion plan".

Some analysts believe that the BRICS countries have argued that the organization lacks a clear mission and direction for the expansion of the staff rather than the other more substantial agenda.Liao Zhenyang analyzed to the United Morning Post that, in addition to getting rid of the common desire of the United States dominated global financial order, "there is almost no common point between the BRICS countries, and there is actually no inner thing to associate them together."

The five kingdoms have different concerns about major issues such as the United States, and the governance system and ideology are also different.In terms of China and India, in addition to long -term difficult -to -resolve border disputes, India has also deepened cooperation with Europe and the United States in recent years, and has launched increasingly fierce competition with China in regions such as East Africa Community.The BRICS Five Kingdoms still have a smooth cooperation so far, but if more members of the economic and political system are included, it may be more difficult to bridge the differences, obtain consensus, and put it into action.

Günther Maihold, deputy director of the Institute of International Political and Security, Germany, said in an interview with the South China Morning Post that the BRICS countries after expansion may become more difficult to manage and "may also produce more internal competition"" ".

Analyst: Deepening the US dollar is a long process

"Go to the US dollar" is another important issue of the BRICS Summit.Sukras, a South African BRICS Affairs, revealed in an exclusive interview with the financial news website Watcher Guru that at the summit in August, it will discuss the use of domestic currencies for cross -border transactions.BRICS countries have previously thrown out the possibility of creating BRICS currency, causing whether the status of the US dollar will be threatened or even replaced.

In response, Dr. Jayant Menon, a senior researcher at the East East South Asian Research Institute, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Payment choices diversified, including new BRICS currencies, which is worthy of risk management.Development. Reducing the existing serious dependence on the US dollar is part of the diversified strategy, but it is still in the early stage and the transaction volume is very low. "

"Most world trade is still conducted in the US dollar, including the trade of the BRICS countries. As more and more countries want to manage risks through the diversification of currency portfolios, the transaction volume may gradually increase over time.But this may be a slow and long process. "

Mei Nong pointed out that a key issue is whether there will be a demand for the use of BRICS currency in the trade of the BRICS countries."If this situation occurs, the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency will be seriously challenged. So far, this situation has not yet happened. Only when the transaction involves at least one BRICS country can the BRICS currency use it."

The internationalization of RMB is difficult to achieve

Liao Zhenyang also believes that the current US dollar status is still difficult to shake.He said: "Although I can understand decentralized investment to avoid the attraction of excessive dependence and excessive exposure to the idea of the United States, the reality is that due to the depth and breadth of the US financial market and the reputation in corporate governThe most powerful global currency. "

In Liao Zhenyang's view, the internationalization of the RMB is the core of the BRICS countries to go to the US dollar.He said: "When we mentioned the BRICS five countries, we actually said that C -China. China accounts for about 72%of BRICS GDP, 80%of economic growth, and the largest trade surplus share.Because China is dominant, the internationalization of the RMB is the core of the BRICS de -US dollar process, not the establishment of a BRICS currency. "

Liao Zhenyang added: "Of course, this is also China's goal. However, if you want to do this, China must open its capital account, which will inevitably bring risks such as capital escape. Is China ready for this?? "

According to the IMF data, nearly 90 % of the international trade activities were priced in US dollars last year, and nearly 60 % of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves.

Mihala Papa, co -sponsored by the National Alliance Research Project of the University of Tavz University, pointed out that the discussion on the currency of the BRICS countries shows that many countries want to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, but considering the economic strength of the BRICS countries,Asymmetric and complicated political relationships, it is very difficult to create common currencies.

She published an article on the Internet saying: "The new global economic order will not be generated from the new Vancouver currency that appears overnight or de -USD, but it may be from the hard work of the BRICS countries to coordinate policies and innovation efforts.Express, and this currency initiative represents such efforts. "