(Moscow Composite Electric) The Russian economy increased by 4.9%year -on -year in the second quarter of this year, the first time in the past year.
The data released by the Russian Federal Statistics (Rosstat) on Friday (August 11) shows that after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war, Russia faced international sanctions, which caused the economy for four consecutive quarters.Essence
Analysts visited by Bloomberg had previously predicted that the median growth of the Russian economy in the second quarter of this year was 3.9%, but now the increase is exceeded, showing that Moscow is expected to adapt to the impact of international sanctions.level.
The Russian Ros Bank Economist Koshelv said: "If the annual number is about, then in 2024, the Russian economy will surpass the level of 2021."
Russian Economy Division: GDP or rebound in the middle of next year
Rafarov, the chief economist of Russia's BCS Financial Group, believes that GDP in Russia may rebound to the scale before the war in the middle of next year, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of this year can reach 2%.
The torque of Russia's economy is mainly due to increasing defense expenditure to increase industrial production and social assistance to increase the rise in wages to stimulate consumer demand.
The Russian central bank has recently raised its annual economic growth from 1.5%to 2.5%, and pointed out that most industries that focus on domestic demand have reached or extended to the pre -war level.However, the Kremlin's expansion of recruits to deal with the war of Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate labor shortages, which will affect the pace of economic recovery.
Western sanctions are invalidated to sell crude oil to India
The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia did not effectively break the pipelines that Russia sold oil., for example, India , has always been the main buyer of the Russian URALS crude oil.Even if Russia can now provide discounts, Indian buyers do not intend to find another source of supply.
Since last year, India's consumption of Russian crude oil has increased, and Russia has also replaced Saudi Arabia and Iraq, becoming India's main suppliers.
However, the price advantage of Russian crude oil has been narrowing recently.Based on the delivery price, the price difference between Russia's crude oil and Dubai benchmark crude oil was about $ 20 (about S $ 27) earlier this year, and it has now narrowed to nearly $ 8.The data also shows that the price of Ural's crude oil on the west coast of India on August 10 has risen from $ 70 per barrel a month ago to nearly 83 US dollars.
Nevertheless, the four major Indian refineries interviewed still planned to continue to buy crude oil from Russia because similar crude oil products from the Middle East were much more expensive.Catona, chief crude oil analyst of Data Intelligence, said: "For Indian refineers, Russian crude oil is currently the cheapest choice. It is expected that from October, India will further usher in a large number of Russian crude oil."
