It may not be an exaggeration to describe the relationship between Russia and White Ross with "cold lips".
But in fact, these two countries did not "depend on lip and teeth" from the beginning.Although White Ross relies on Russia's energy and financial assistance, President of President Alexander Lukashenko and Moscow are also "brothers" with Moscow, but he also strives to shape the country's independence image and avoid going too close to Moscow to avoidHis status is threatened.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and refused to recognize Russia's occupation behavior. Lukarko obviously realized that Beros may be recovered by Russia by Russia.
Russian President Putin later publicly suggested that Berlos joined the Russian Federation, or established an alliance similar to the European Union, which even more concerned about Lukashenko, and the relationship between the two countries began to crack.
However, this is related to another change in 2020.Lukashenko faced the largest anti -government demonstration since the country's independence, and finally could only ask Putin for help.
Putin dispatched the police forces to assist in demonstrations in the territory of White Ross, and also provided loans of $ 1.5 billion (about S $ 2 billion), and sold oil and natural gas to White Ross at preferential prices.危 Political crisis from the steps down.
The Western sanctions on the West further promoted the relationship between Russia and white
The Western government's sanctions on Berlos further sent it into Russia's arms.In December 2022, Putin, who has rarely visited in recent years, personally visited Berlos to meet with Lukashenko, highlighting the intimate relationship between the two.
White Ross has more than 1,000 kilometers bordering Ukraine. When Russia launched a "special military operation" to Ukraine last year, Beros has become the most favorable springboard in Moscow.arms.
On June 16 this year, Putin confirmed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the first batch of nuclear weapons has been deployed in the territory of White Ross. By the end of the summer to the end of the year, the deployment work will be completed.
Anthropomorphism with Wagner's head of Luma Shenke medal the mutiny
On June 23, the Russian mercenary organization's head of the Wagner Group Parigen accused the Russian army of fighting his troops, and then waved his army to Moscow.At this critical moment, Lukashenko, who had a 20 -year friendship with Pryigo, intervened in the mediation, persuading Pryigo to stop going north to Moscow and exile in exile to ensure the personal safety of his and Wagner forces.
Analysis: Luchenke's mediation becomes self -protection
For Lukashenko to resolve the crisis, James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology, believes that Lukashenko is to keep his regime.
Duoxi Xiang Lian Zaobao analyzed: "Lukashenko has a close relationship with Putin. He is particularly enthusiastic in the actions of invasion of Ukraine in Russia. Recently, Russia also allows Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Beros."
"In other words, the greater the use of Lukashenko's use in Russia, the more Russia tends to ensure that he continues to govern."
Luo Minghui, assistant professor of the Public Policy and Global Affairs Curriculum, said in an interview: "In the eyes of Lukashenko, the instability of the main allies Russia means that their own rule will also be unstable.When the soldiers occurred, the opposition leaders and anti -Lukashenko camps in the exile of White Ros have called for him to drive him down. "
According to the Berlos official media report, Lukashenko said after a reconciliation mutiny that there was no hero in the abortion mutiny of Wagner, including himself.
Lukashenko admits that the country and their current destiny are closely related to Putin's fate.He said: "If the storm spread to the entire Russia and its impact is huge, the next one will be our turn. If Russia disintegrates, we will be pressed under the ruins.
Some analysts believe that Putin has been betrayed by the close troops, but Lukashenko successfully resolved the crisis through mediation, which made Putin the biggest loser, while Beros was the biggest winner.
Huang Yipeng, an associate professor of the Department of Political Science, the National University of Singapore, agreed to this statement.In the interview, he said: "Lukashenko has won the trust of Pleigon and Putin, and through negotiations, find a way out for the two parties to keep the face."
Duoxi said: "After experiencing the change of this army, Putin seems to have been weakened ... Instead of solving the problem by himself, he rely on Lukashenko to help him resolve the problem. At the same time, people have doubts that RussiaWhy didn't the regular army make a greater resistance against Wagner's soldiers? This involves the loyalty of senior military generals, and it is worth noting that after the soldiers are changed to Rostov-on-Don, it is not that Wagner does not confront Wagner.The Russian army is the Chechen army. What does all this mean, we still have to watch the change, but at this stage, the only winner seems to be Lukashenko. "
Analysis: By receiving Wagna Bailuels, it can grow military strength
Lukashenko stated on the day of Berlos that he hoped that the Wagner forces would provide training for the Beros army and teach rich combat experience.White Ross's Minister of Defense Herrenkov also said that he didn't mind having a troops similar to Wagner in the army.
For the White Roths to accept Wagner Group, Doxi believes: "From the perspective of Lukashenko, when the war broke out, strengthening the military power of Beros is completely reasonable, coupled with the White Ross and Russia.The relationship is closely related, which will also be regarded as the interests of Russia. "
Mitroxin, a researcher at the University of Bo Mei, Germany, pointed out in an interview with the Peninsula TV station: "If Pryigon stays in Beros and manages Wagner or similar organizations, this will enhance the political influence of Lukashenko. HeYou will also get your true private army. "
After the 2020 election, the White Ross opposition leader of Lithuania, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, warned that Lukashenko may use the Wagner forces to further target domestic objections.
She also accused Lukashenko of allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in the country.She said: "We now ring all the alarm about deploying nuclear weapons. This will ensure that in the future for many years, Russia will always exist in Beros ... even if the regime is changed, it is difficult to get rid of them."
■ Wagner moves to the country of NATO in the Belo Ros, such as the enemy
The flight carrying the head of the Wagner Group, Porigen, was said to arrive in Beros on June 27, which touched the nerves of leaders of NATO member states.
Lukashenko revealed that Poliger returned to Russia again, but this "Putin chef" who was forced to exile due to the failure of the mutiny may appear again in the east wing of NATO at any time. In addition, Russia has begunThe nuclear weapons to the territory of Baillo make NATO as the enemy.
Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have a border of 1250 kilometers bordering the borders of Bai Luos.Regarding Wagner's mercenaries to come to the house, these countries are like thorns on their backs, and they have announced their strengthening of border security.
NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg said that NATO will agree to strengthen the defense at a summit held on Tuesday (July 11) at Vernis, Lithuania to protect all member states, especially bordering Bai Ros bordering Berosnation.
Although Lukashenko said in an interview with foreign media on Thursday (6th), saying that Wagner's mercenaries have not yet settled in White, the satellite image shot by the Star Laboratory (Planet Labs) at the end of JuneA vacant military base of about 100 kilometers in the capital Minsk has appeared in multiple large tents.There are multiple military facilities in this base, including training grounds and ammunition storage libraries. I believe it will be Wagner's new camp in Beros.
Polish government officials: Wagner in Beros to perform tasks
Lukashenko said the question of whether the Wagner's troops moved to Bailos were unconventional, and eventually it depends on Russia and Wagner's decision."Whether they will be deployed in White Ross, the number is the number, we will finalize it in the near future."
Whether Wagner's presence will cause trouble to neighboring countries, Stanislaw Zaryn, the coordinator of the Polish Department of Special Affairs, told Reuters: "We assume that Wagner does not go to White Rose to raise his essence, but go to go, but go to go, but go to go, but to goExecute the task. This task may be targeted at Poland or Lithuania or Ukraine. "
Krisjaniskarins, the Prime Minister of Latvia, pointed out with EU leaders last month: "(Vagna composition) may not be a positive military threat, but for their unknown purposes and penetrate into Europe into Europe.Threat. "
Valdas Tutkus, former commander of the Lithuanian armed forces, said in an interview with the Baltic News Network: "The professional and experienced troops stationed in the White Ross will pose a serious threat to Lithuania."
"It should be noted that all of this happened before the NATO summit in Vernis, and it was impossible to exclude the arrangement of the two leaders (Putin and Lukashenko), which aims to make us feel nervous."
However, Dolsi, a senior researcher at the Rajiery South International Research Institute, did not think that Wagner was deployed in White Ross and would fundamentally change the strategic situation.
He said: "If I am NATO, I am even more worried that it will be a tactical nuclear weapon, not the Wagner Group ... Although Lukashenko supports Russia's invasion operation, he has not participated in the Russian and Ukraine War in military.There is no direct intervention. He may want to play a more active military role in the war by allowing the Wagner Group to play in the Bloss. "
■ President of Beloel Rakshenko is the puppet around Putin?
After President Lokashenko successfully resolved the crisis of Wagner's mutiny, the local and Russian state -owned media praised the 68 -year -old Beloos.
"The Messenger of Slavic Civilization" and "Hero of Russia" became synonymous with Lukashenko.
Lukashenko, who was born in a peasant family in Beroos in 1954, grew up in a single -parent family. The only brother died when he was young, and his mother worked hard to raise him.The hard childhood made Lukashenko earlier than his peers, and he was more hard -working.
In the 1990s, Lukashenko rose as an anti -corruption fighter. In the early days of Beros ’s independence, he served as the chairman of the Soviet Supreme Soviet Anti -Corruption Commission.
Lukashenko came to power in 1994, and was one of the few post -Soviet national leaders who insisted on gradual reform. They not only stopped selling state -owned assets, but also resumed Soviet -style public welfare policies to provide people with basic living securityEssence
A series of measures implemented by Lukashenko have greatly improved the White Ross's economy. From 1996 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of the White Ross's economy remained above 8%.The improvement of the people's life has also pushed up the support rate of Lukashenko, which made him continue to be six presidents. The people also cordially called him "Daddy of White Ross."
However, the 2019 crown disease epidemic has begun to set out in various places. Lukashenko advocates not to beolate and stop working. It is recommended that it has begun to cause a strong rebound of the people through steam baths and drinking vodga.
The presidential election of the same year, Lukashenko announced that it was re -elected with 80%of the vote, but faced a large -scale protest demonstration in China, saying that there was a problem of fraud in the election.His strength targeted the dissatisfaction of people's dissatisfaction, and eventually had to seek help from Russia to resolve the crisis.
In the past 30 years, Lukashenko has been described as Putin's puppet.
Pavel Latushka, a former Berlos diplomat who is currently exiled overseas, described that Lukashenko and Putin are like conjoined twins: "We must not without each other ... One of them falls on the stage means the political death of the other."
Rosemary Thomas, a former British Ambassador to White, believes that Lukashenko has fallen into a "vicious circle".There were 1,500 political prisoners in Bairos, but Lukashenko was still trying to target domestic opposition, and "his status became increasingly not firm because of his illegality."
Thomas believes that in this context, Beros agreed to accept the watto Vagna soldiers "seemingly risky."She pointed out that no matter how the next situation develops, Lukashenko will "not be forgiven by his people because he sells the sovereignty of White Ross more or less."
