Li Yuexia sort out
(Washington Composite Electric) International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning that the increasing geopolitical differentiation of the world, including the Sino -US trade war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, may have reduced global output by 2 % in the long run.
IMF on Wednesday (April 5) The World Economic Outlook Reporting Festival said that economic model analysis shows that if the world splits into two major camps centered on China and the United States, and countries such as India and Indonesia maintain neutralThe output may fall by 1 % within five years and the long -term decrease of 2 %.
Fund turning to impact on emerging economies "more differentiated worlds and poorer"
IMF's research found that the increasingly intensified geopolitical tensions are leading to foreign direct investment (FDI) and other funds that are gradually flowing to alliances, that is, countries that are approaching from the geographical to geographical to geopolitics are turned toLike the situation between the United States and Europe.The re -distribution of this investment may impact emerging economies.The report of the report pointed out: "A more differentiated world may be more poorer."
"Enterprises and decision makers of various countries and decision makers are increasingly considering transferring production activities to a trusted country with consistent political preferences in order to reduce the impact of geopolitical tensions on the supply chain."
IMF warned the damage caused by the geopolitical cracks in China and the United States to the global economy, this time is one of the strongest warnings.The report emphasizes the impact of poor countries.
In recent years, the relationship between the two major economies of China and the United States has deteriorated, and it has increasingly regarded each other as the number one strategy and economic threat.Chinese officials and US President Biden met in the Bali Island of Indonesia last November, trying to cool down the tension between China and the United States. However, the two countries have emerged in new disputes on Taiwan's issues, spy charges, technical security, and Ukraine War.
IMF has estimated in January this year that long -term trade division, including restrictions on immigration, capital flow, and international cooperation, will reduce global GDP by nearly 7%.
IMF will be scheduled to release the world economic outlook and global financial stability reports at the Spring Conference in Washington next Tuesday (April 11).
The excerpts of the global financial stability report show that the intensive tension between the country and the country may trigger the outflow of funds and threaten the stability of the financial system.
TheReport found that the differences between the dispute between the investment country and the country, such as the differences between China and the United States, may lead to a decrease of bilateral cross -border investment and bank loan distribution by about 15%.
The election also mentioned the price of Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the price it paid with allies on attracting foreign funds."Cross -border bank borrowing and investment funds that flow to Russia and its allies (in March 2022 refusing to support the United Nations to condemn Russia's resolutions) have been reversed sharply, and the distribution of these countries has decreased by about 20%and 60%compared with the pre -war."
In order to curb the unstable risks of geopolitical disputes to the banking industry in various places, IMF believes that government regulatory agencies and financial institutions of various countries should use stress testing and scenario analysis to better understand how the increasing situation is about howEffects.
