Green Pan: The decline in the US economy is the ＂most likely result＂ tightening mon

(New York Composite Television) Former Chairman of the United States Reserve Green Pan said that as the central bank tighten the monetary policy to curb inflation, the United States' recession is "the most likely result."

Greenspan's current "Advisors Capital Management" senior economic adviser.He wrote in a question and answer comment published by this company's website on Tuesday (January 3): "Although the recent two monthly reports show that the increase in consumer prices has slowed down, I don't think this constitutes the Federal Reserve at least enough to make at least enoughAvoid the reason for the large steering of gentle recession. "

The Federal Reserve last year to curb the most serious inflation in 40 years, and said that it would continue to tighten the policy before the task was completed.

Grimpan said that salary growth and employment still need to be weakened to make the fall of inflation from temporary."We may have a short time in inflation, but I think this is too small and it is too late.

"The risk of too fast interest rate cutting is that the inflation rate may soar again, let us return to the origin. This may damage the credibility of the Fed's guarantee price.Relax policy, unless they think this is absolutely necessary, for example, to prevent the financial market from being chaotic. "

On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal reported on the 2nd that nearly 70 % of large financial institutions include Barclays Group, Bank of America, Daoming Securities and UBS groups that the US economic recession will come soon, and the culprit is the Federal Reserve is the Federal Reserve.EssenceIn order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times last year.

Most of the outlook predicts that the Fed will suspend interest rate hikes in the second quarter of this year, and then start to cut interest rates in the third or fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the US economy and stock market will rebound.

Economists mostly say that the cooling effect brought by interest rate hikes will be more obvious in 2023.The US economy will shrink, but it is expected to be a "shallow" or "mild" decline. By the end of 2023, the US economy and stock market will rebound, mainly due to the Fed's steering interest rate cut.