Economists believe that restricting food exports increase the risk of global food prices, which will definitely produce bone card effects, prompting more countries to take similar measures and exacerbate the grain crisis.In addition, these restrictions often cause panic, prompting buyers to hoard goods, and further increase the price.
(Mumbai Reuters) Russia and Ukraine war caused a high price, and the international trade flow of agricultural products was blocked. So far, at least 19 countries, including India's restrictions on food exports.Economic analysts believe that the current global food crisis is more serious than the 2008 crisis. Export restrictions have affected nearly one -fifth of the world's grain transactions, which is nearly doubled in 2008.
According to the provisions of the World Trade Organization, in the face of "serious shortage", member states can implement temporary export ban on food or other products.
Indian Minister of Trade Goria told Reuters that he had explained to the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund last month that India needs to restrict food exports to stabilize domestic food prices to prevent buying and hoarding.
Luta, chief economist of Macroeconomics of the World Bank, believes that restricting food exports will only increase the risk of global food prices, which will definitely produce bone card effects and promote similar measures to more countries, leading to further deterioration of global food crisis worseningEssence
In view of the tight global food supply, some countries have started restricting food exports as early as last year.However, since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War on February 24 this year, the prices of grains and vegetable oil have skyrocketed, prompting more countries to restrict food exports.
Evenet, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of Switzerland, pointed out that many national governments and international organizations promised after the global grain crisis in 2008 to ensure global food security."But this time, because of the Russian and Ukraine War, food supply is indeed hit."
Indian Prime Minister Modi announced in April this year that as the world's second largest wheat producer, India will increase the export of wheat to fill the global shortage caused by the Russian and Ukraine War.However, the heat wave has led to a decrease in the harvest of Indian wheat, and inflation pushed the price of grain, which prompted the Modi government to announce the prohibition of wheat exports and restricting sugar exports last month.
In addition, in order to inhibit domestic edible oil prices soaring, the Indonesian government announced on April 28th that the implementation of the export of original palm oil and other palm oil products.This disrupted the global edible oil market.
Malaysia also banned the exit of living chickens from June 1, but it was terminated on the 14th.
According to data from the Institute of International Food Policy (IFPRI) in Washington Think Tank, this wave of export restrictions has affected nearly one -fifth of the world's grain transactions, which is nearly doubled the global grain crisis in 2008.
IFPRI researcher Labo said: "These restrictions often cause panic, prompting buyers to hoard goods ... further push the price."
Vedinete said that the major grain production countries will be harvested this summer, which will determine whether the global grain crisis will be further upgraded in the second half of the year.He pointed out that drought in the United States means that winter wheat output will decrease, and French wheat in France has also been attacked by hail, strong wind and rainstorm this month.
Vedinete said: "The current situation is more worrying in many aspects than 2008. The crisis of the year also caused political turmoil, let alone now. Six to nine months is therefore difficult."
