(London Reuters) Russia invaded Ukraine, with a large war over expense, and Western economic sanctions, the Russian economy has a dull prospect for a long time.At present, the price of basic products in Russia has continued to rise, and the people have tightened their belts, and consumption is more cautious.
Faced with European and American sanctions, Russian officials insist that the Russian economy will be able to stand, while President Putin emphasized that Russia cannot be excluded from global trade.However, the official shouting was not enough to appease the people's hearts. Roman, a 25 -year -old Moscow citizen, said he saw some worrying signs.He said: "What I feel worried is that the price of daily necessities and vegetables continues to rise, which indicates that the worse situation is still behind."
His concerns are not unparalleled.Preliminary data from the Russian Ministry of Finance showed that the value -added tax revenue reflected in consumer expenditure fell by as much as 54 % year -on -year.Economic Minister of Economic Minister Leisiankov said last week that commercial expenditure and consumer expenditure had a "demand crisis".
Russian imported goods have been significantly reduced
Russia has almost completely stopped publishing data from capital flows, but after the analysis of customs data from the Central Bank of Finland, it is found that Russia's imports of imports have been significantly reduced.For example, China ’s exports to Russia fell 25 % last month, and products exported from Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan were reduced by more than half.
Another problem faced by Russia is the surge in inflation, which has exceeded 17 %, which is a new high in 20 years.
Russia launch military operations in Ukraine and puts pressure on national finances.Lishetekov said that national spending will increase by 22 % this year, and the government has begun to use the National Wealth Fund to pay for expenditure.
Western automakers, banks and other companies have the impact of the impact of capital output and employment markets in Russia and the employment market, which has not yet fully emerged.Guriev, a professor of economics at the Politics University of Paris, pointed out that Russia has not fully felt the pain of sanctions, because some funding companies are still paying employees' salary, and some domestic companies still have inventory of imported parts.Can be maintained for several months.
JP Morgan Stanley Economist predicts that Russian family consumption will decrease by 13 % this year, and the investment amount will decrease by 23 %. Russia's potential long -term growth rate is now expected to be only 1 %.
The prospects of small Russian enterprises are also dim.Kiereva, a partner of a small public relations company in Moscow, said: "Now that there are few companies that intend to formulate strategies or long -term, large contracts ... Enterprises, especially small companies, now only want to continue to survive, develop or create new products for new products.No interest. "
For the Russian people who have experienced many crises after the Soviet Union's disintegration in 1991, struggle is no stranger to survival."The situation will be worse next, but people in this country will be worse, but people in this country are used to suffering. I have stored potatoes and cucumbers in the summer room.I. "
