International Special Special
When Russian President Putin ordered the Russian army to enter Ukraine in February this year, he should not expect to encounter the stubborn resistance of the Ukraine. The war that lasted for nearly four months is still difficult to win.Both ends are not shore. US President Biden said that Putin would not be able to make the war end.Will Putin, who lost his wife and troops, would take out the final killer and declare war on NATO with nuclear weapons?
A social media platform Twitter recently circulated a forgery photo: NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg issued a banner of "NATO Annual Recruitment Award" to Russian President Putin, full of smiles, so as to ridicule it to ridiculePutin "recruited" two new members for NATO.
On Wednesday, Finland and Sweden officially submitted an application to join NATO, as if poured a pot of cold water from Putin, who wanted to prevent NATO from the eastward expansion.
On February 24, when the Russian army invaded Ukraine, one of Putin's reasons was to prevent this former Soviet Republic from joining the NATO military alliance.
As a result, the Russian army, which had to win Kiev, who had not been able to cover up with thunder, but encountered the Tongcheng Iron Wall built by all people in Ukraine, which eventually had to give up Kiev and instead concentrated his military strength in the military strength in the military strength.East Ukraine.
TheThe Urban's Stubborn Russian offensive progress has progressed slowly in the Wudong region. A number of senior Russian soldiers were killed. The Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" was sunk by the Ukraine missile in mid -April.
Ukraine has not yet surrendered, Putin has also pushed the two years of military neutralized countries in Finland and Sweden for many years, so that Russia has further caught in a security predicament.
Finnish and Sweden joining NATO means that Russia has lost the buffer between the West. The length of the land boundary between Russia and NATO will nearly doubled.Essence
Sweden is a power of maritime, and Finland is a power country.The Swedish Navy's main force is five hidden "Visby" light frigates that can be used for coastal defense.There are also five submarines, 11 small landing ships, seven Pray boats and 15 logistics support ships.
Finland has a 672-setting artillery system. Recently, 64 F-35 fighters have been ordered to replace the original F / A18 big Hornet fighter.
Finland Sweden apply to join the NATO military strength as a tiger
After applying to join NATO, the Finnish Ministry of Defense also announced that Finland and Sweden will strengthen their cooperation between the two countries in defense procurement and jointly purchase portable guns and anti -tank weapons to improve the availability of key national defense equipment in the two countries.
The addition of the two countries will not only make NATO's military strength adding a tiger, but also has important geopolitical significance.Sweden enlightenment means that in Gotland, Gotland in the Baltic Sea, it will be used by NATO in the future, which will allow NATO to control the route to the Finnish Bay.The route is also under control.The Baltic Sea will become a quasi -Inland Sea. NATO can block the Russian Baltic fleet when any hostile operation occurs. Russia's activities in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions will be further constrained.
Latvia Foreign Minister Links bluntly stated: "The Baltic Sea will become the sea of NATO."
Estonian Ambassador to NATO Luyk also said: "Finland and Sweden joining NATO will provide additional security and stability to the entire Baltic region, so that the Allies can better contact the Baltic countries.Fight, especially in the field of sea and air. "
Putin inadvertently promotes the beauty between NATO and Finland and Sweden, and subverts the power comparison of the power along the northern border between NATO and Russia. Will he take out the final killer in order to reverse the disadvantages and take the country's facing the threat of survival.What about the nuclear weapons?
Huang Yipeng, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, stated in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons.He said: "Since 1945, no country has used nuclear weapons ... If Putin really does this, he will stink in the history book for thousands of years because Putin really did this, and he will definitely stink for thousands of years in history. He will definitely further push further high high.Ukraine's nationalist emotions have made Ukraine and Russia go away. Putin always believes that Ukraine is part of Russia, and he will not want to do it. "
Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Eastern European Research Center of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, believes that it can interpret the possibility of Russia's use of nuclear weapons from two aspects: First, large -scale killing in small scale in Ukraine in UkraineSexual weapons, the second is the use of nuclear weapons for NATO member states, that is, the outbreak of the Third World War.
He told the United Morning Post: "Russia may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in order to achieve some satisfactory record at a certain stage.
"But for the use of nuclear weapons for NATO, I think it is unlikely to happen. Social media controlled by Russia has been actively promoting the use of nuclear weapons on the West, but I think this is just psychological tactics.Provide heavy weapons. "
However, without using nuclear weapons, there are not many trump cards left on Putin.Umrand believes that Putin is basically impossible to win through conventional warfare.
He said: "Even if a small -scale use of nuclear weapons or dispatch other large -scale lethal weapons, the political cost he wants to pay is very high. He may have kept the neutral Asia, Africa and Latin American countries that have maintained neutrality so far in the world to date.Start alienation of Russia, they will think it will be difficult to continue dealing with Russia or cooperate. "
Huang Yipeng also said: "I think Putin has almost exhausted the means he can use: spreading false information, publicity, network attacks, energy ... his few choices may include assassination of Ukrainian President Zelezi,Make Ukraine into chaos, but if Western countries make military intervention, this may also cause a larger war. "
How to end the Russian and Ukraine War in the end, the scholars believe that it is difficult to predict, but Huang Yipeng believes that this war is unlikely to become a long -lasting nightmare like Syria, Afghanistan or the Vietnam War.
He pointed out that the Syrian, Afghan and Vietnamese wars all started from a military super power to a distant small country to launch a war, so facing the stubborn resistance of the local people.Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union, and was very familiar with the way Russia fighting. "In many aspects, this is almost a civil war, and both the battle between the war is very familiar with each other."
Nevertheless, Huang Yipeng believes that the war of Russia and Ukraine will stillDragging for a while, it was not until one of them could achieve a more decisive military victory that the two sides could sit down to negotiate the peace agreement, but this would be another difficult process.
He said: "Russia will want to obtain control in Russian regions in eastern Ukraine to restore some faces; Ukraine hopes that Russia acknowledges Ukraine to determine national policies and future, including the right to join NATO or EU.Find the middle balance point in the middle. "
The Road to NATO expansion
The North Atlantic Convention Organization (NATO), established in 1949, is a defensive military alliance. 12 start -up members include the United States, Britain, Canada, and France.
The purpose ofNATO was established to fight Russia's expansion in Europe after World War II and curb the Soviet and communist forces in Eastern Europe.Each member country agrees that if any party is attacked by armed, other member states must reach out.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the Soviet Treaty Organization with NATO confrontation disbanded, there were 16 member states in NATO, but the role played by NATO has always been the focus of discussion.Many foreign policy experts believe that Western leaders should establish a new security framework to redefine the relationship with Russia.In 1994, NATO signed the "PARTNERSHIP For Peace" with Russia and 30 European countries.
NATO has always maintained the policy of "open portal", and adheres to the decision of whether all countries have the decision to join NATO.
Since 1990, NATO has completed five rounds of expansion, incorporated some former Soviet countries and former Warsaw Treaty countries into its own.
■ In the first round: In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic of the former Warsaw Treaty joined NATO, allowing NATO defense line to advance to the east of 700 to 900 kilometers, an increase of 60 million.
■ In 2004, the largest expansion since the establishment of NATO has attracted seven countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.Among them, the addition of the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, blocked Russia's channels to Europe.
■ In the third round: In 2009, NATO was first included in the two Westbargan countries, Albania and Croatia to rewrite the European geographical security pattern and further squeezing Russia's security space.NATO has intended to absorb Ukraine at this time, but due to Russia's countermeasures, the Ukraine's plan is stranded.
■ Fourth round: In 2017, Black Mountain joined.
■ Fifth round: 2020, Northern Macedonia joined.
TheFive -round expansion operation has increased NATO member states to 30 countries.If Finland and Sweden submitted on Wednesday will eventually join NATO, NATO member states will increase to 32, and Russia will be forced to the corner and be surrounded.
Putin lost international credibility and public opinion
"Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.)
This is the view that Italian politicians and diplomats in the 16th century Italian politician and diplomat Niccolo Machine.For Russian President Putin, this famous saying is confirming his current dilemma.
Putin, who was elected in 2000, has a very different image from his ex -Errus.Yelsin maintained a warm and friendly relationship with the then US President Clinton, but Putin was unpredictable in the eyes of foreign leaders.
Former US President Bush tried to establish a good personal relationship with him when he met with Putin for the first time in 2001.Little Bush later described: "I looked at the person's eyes and found that he was very straightforward and trustworthy ... He was the person who was committed to maintaining the country's largest interests."
Sure enough, Putin later proved his insistence on protecting national interests.In 2008, Putin, who was invited to the NATO Summit, found that NATO leaders were discussing matters that made Georgia and Ukraine join NATO.He later stated to Bush that Ukraine was not a real country.
In August of the same year, Putin waved to Georgia south to defeat the Georgian army who had received American training.Western experts said that Russia learned from this invasion and then enhanced the equipment to transform the army into a professional troops.
In 2014, Russia sent troops into Ukraine to annex Crimea.After a lapse of eight years, Putin, who had a lot of myelin, ordered the attack in Ukraine again, but unexpectedly could not easily taste the victory as the previous two times.
U.S. Secretary of State Brillings asserted at the beginning of the war that Putin's goal was not just Ukraine. He eventually hoped that he would further control the country around the country and reproduce the Soviet empire during the Cold War.
Even if the Soviet Empire cannot be rebuilt, the "Modern Tsar" hopes to re -establish the scope of the forces around the neighboring countries that once belonged to the Soviet Union, at least ensure that these countries maintain neutrality.
Umrand, an analyst at the Stockholm Eastern European Research Center, believes that Putin is obviously losing now.He said: "Russia's weight in world politics will decline. The social, economic and political cost it paid is huge, and it has even contributed to the integration of the West, making the EU member states more united."
Huang Yipeng, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the University of National University, pointed out that after this battle, Russia lost its international reputation and the support of the Russian people.He said: "Putin has lost the support of Russian talents overseas. They are now embarrassed and cannot believe that their country will start war against another country. As for those who support the war in Russia, they have sufferedThe loss was surprised, and the war that originally thought it could be easily won is now stagnant. I think these people's support for Putin has also begun to weaken. "
For Russia's biggest loser for the Russian and Ukraine War, Huang Yipeng said: "I think it is Putin, not Russia. He has accelerated Russia's recession. No matter how the final war ended, I don't think he can continue to be in powerToo long. "
