International Special Special
Seoul Correspondent
Korean new president Yin Xiyue took office on May 10.Yin Xiyue, 61, has been a prosecutor who had been 27 years before, and had no experience in politics at all. "Political amateur" Yin Xiyue will win the trust of the people, reshape diplomatic security, stabilize domestic house prices, lead national unity ... President's term at the beginning of his term, facing severe tests before.
Yin Xiyue can be elected as the South Korean president because the South Korean people have a strong desire for the "change of the regime".As we all know, Wen Zaiyin's government advocated democracy, integrity, fairness, and justice after Park Geun -hye was impeached for the "girlfriend's government".However, his family Cao Guo's family exposed various scandals, coupled with the failure of the real estate policy and the continuous dilemma of the people's economy, which caused the public to be very disappointed by the Wen Zaiyin government.
When Yin Xiyue was a prosecutor, due to the image of positive liquidation, he won the trust of Wen Zaiyin. He was appointed as the chief prosecutor in June 2019.Shortly after Yin Xiyue took office as the chief procuratorial chief, Wen Zaiyin began to carry out judicial reforms that aimed at weakening the power of prosecutors, but Yin Xiyue insisted on opposing Wen Zaiyin.He was supported by the public with the image of the warriors who opposed the abuse of power.After that, Yin Xiyue resigned as the chief prosecutor.
At that time, the National Power Party had no popular presidential candidates. Under the active persuasion of this conservative party, on July 30, 2021, Yin Xiyue joined the National Power Party. Just more than three months later, it was early within the party.Selected victory and became the party's presidential candidate.On March 10, 2022, Yin Xiyue won in the presidential election.
Analysis pointed out that Yin Xiyue is the first president in Korean history to have no national conference experience. This will be his biggest advantage and the biggest disadvantage, just like the two sides of the coin.
South Korea's public opinion believes that Yin Xiyue is a political amateur. He is a prosecutor for a long time. He will not use legislative power to seek benefits for a group of people. It is believed that he will not become a "leader of a party."Lack of political experience can be said to be his biggest advantage.
A lawyer who once worked with Yin Xiyue as a prosecutor said that although Yin Xiyue was elected president with the support of the conservative party, he would not be a person who promoted the one -sided policy.
Yin Xiyue's Presidential Responsive Committee released 110 national affairs projects focusing on the new government on the 3rd of this month. The new government plans to invest about 209 trillion won (about S $ 227.4 billion) to achieve 110 topics.
greatly modify the Wen Zaiyin government policy economy from the government to folk -led
Analysis pointed out that 110 national political issues of Yin Xiyue's new government can be summarized as "comprehensive abolition or significant modification of the Wen Zaiyin government policy, and the economy will change from government -led to folk -led."The national political subject can be seen everywhere "overthrowing Wen Zaiyin" and returning to the "Li Mingbo's administration period".
First of all, the new government announced that it will greatly modify the carbon neutralization policy of the Wen Zaiyin government, and clearly explicitly abolish the disconnecting power policy, and put forward the goal of "jumping into a nuclear power power".Earlier, the Wen Zaiyin government interrupted the construction of the new nuclear power plant and prohibited the life expectancy of the old and old nuclear power plants. The new government will continue to operate the old nuclear power plant, restart the construction of the 3 and 4 of the new Hanwei Nuclear Power Station, and decide to set up an export strategy to promote the advancementTeam, winning 10 nuclear power units exported in 2030.
In addition, the Yin Xiyue government has shifted economic policy from the government to folk -led.In the past, Wen Zaiyin was actively involved in the economy through the national finance, but the new government will abolish the "economic policy of revenue -led growth" by the Wen Zaiyin government and completely follow the economic policy of the law of market economy.
In terms of real estate policy, the Yin Xiyue government announced that it will reduce real estate tax, relax supervision, and greatly increase the supply to calm down house prices, and promise to build at least 2.5 million new housing in the country.
Facing the political situation of "Chao Xiaoya"
An An Zhexiu, chairman of the transfer committee, pointed out that the new government needs to completely repair the areas of damage to the Wen Zaiyin government., Abolish the nuclear power policy, etc.At the same time, the new government must also respond to the sharp increase in national liabilities, re -consider the possibility of financial continuity, and ensure the transparency of non -profit civil society.
However, public opinion is worried that he will face the political situation of "Chao Xiaoya".
Wu Zhengyi, director of the Institute of Administrative Research, South Korea, pointed out that although the common Democratic Party has lost its ruling power, there are still 172 seats in the 300 seats of Congress.This means that before the parliamentary election in 2024, Yin Xiyue had to discuss with the current joint Democratic Party with the current Parliament.Under the situation of "Chaoyeye", in order to operate the national government, Yin Xiyue inevitably negotiate with the common Democratic Party, whether it can achieve integration, and test his administration ability.
In the election, Yin Xiyue was elected president with only 0.73 % of the weak advantage.A survey released by the poll agency South Korea Realmeter on the 9th of this month showed that Yin Xiyue's support rate was only 51.4 %.Considering that the support rate of previous presidents from the first month of election is as high as 80 %, Yin Xiyue's support rate is quite low.
However, the senior politician Jin Hanji believes that Yin Xiyue's low support rate before taking office will make him double his efforts.The support rate in the early stage of taking office is low, and the results will naturally rise in the future. Don't forget the original intention of taking office, just work hard.
South Korea's diplomatic environment is not optimistic
The diplomatic environment that Yin Xiyue's new government is facing is not optimistic.Compared with Wen Zaiyin's administration, the current international situation has changed dramatically.Two of the biggest impact on South Korea ’s diplomatic impact: one is that the relationship between the two major countries of China and the United States has deteriorated and has been caught in a long -lasting strategic competition; the other is the continuous battle between Russia and Ukraine.
In this case, Yin Xiyue government, who advocates the "impact of North Korea's pre -issued crackdown", "strengthening the Korean and American alliance" and "repairing Korea -Japan relations", predicted that South Korean foreign policy will change a lot.
Yin Xiyue did not formulate work experience in foreign policies. It is generally believed that Yin Xiyue will largely rely on the "foreign affairs team" to make suggestions.
In addition to Park Zhen, the new government's diplomatic security camp, in addition to the "American" Foreign Minister Park Zhen, there is also Jin Chenghan, director of the National Security Office of the Presidential Palace, and Jin Taixiao for the first time in the National Security Office.Because these three were the "old ministers" of former President Li Mingbo, they were interpreted as the new government to strengthen the strong diplomacy of pro -beauty, anti -China, and towards the dynasty.
During the governance of Wen Zaiyin, South Korea and the United States continued, and the relationship between the two countries had been alienated.Yin Xiyue clearly stated that he would rebuild the Korean and American Alliance, andFocus on "the establishment of a deeper alliance with the United States" at the "Center of South Korean Foreign Policy".
Park Zhen recently emphasized that the new government will build a solid Korean and American alliance, which will actively cooperate based on sharing value and strive to achieve peace and prosperity between the Korean Peninsula and even Northeast Asia and the Indo -Pacific region.To this end, South Korea will actively participate in the "Indo -Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF) promoted by the Bayndon government in the United States, and seek various cooperation with the "Quad" (QUAD).
U.S. President Biden will visit South Korea from the 20th to 22nd of this month, and then visit Japan from 22 to 24.Although the White House press secretary Puski emphasized that there is no need to delve into the order of Bayeng's visit, the Yonhap News Agency commented that Bayon used South Korea as the first stop of the visit, indicating that the United States gave important significance to South Korea -American relations.
Yin Xiyue's spokesman pointed out that the first talks about Han and Meiyuan will be held on the 11th day of Yin Xiyue, which is the fastest speed after the establishment of the new Korean new government.
Pan Jizhu, director of the Security Research Center of the Institute of International Relations of the University of Renho University, pointed out that after Bayeng visited South Korea, the South Korean and American alliance relations may have further improved.This reflects the United States that South Korea plays an important role in maintaining the international order of liberalism.
Yin Xiyue's willingness to rebuild the Korean and American Alliance will naturally have a negative impact on South Korea -China relations.South Korea, America and South Korea and China are two wheels of Korean diplomacy.Although the Sino -US strategic competition has continued, the Wen Zaiyin government has successfully maintained some balance between China and the United States. On the one hand, it maintains the relationship with the only security alliance with the United States, and on the other hand, it maintains its positioning with Chinese strategic economic partners.
Because Yin Xiyue publicly denied the "three no" commitments made by Wen Zaiyin's government when campaign, that is, "the Korean side no longer deploys a new Sad anti -missile system, does not join the 'Quartet security dialogue', not with beautyThe establishment of a three -sided military alliance on the day has aroused concerns from the Chinese government.However, the national affairs project issued by the Presidential Resignation Committee did not include the deployment of Sad, showing that Yin Xiyue's new government's policies showed a cautious attitude towards China.
Li Dongkui, an associate researcher at the Eshan Policy Research Institute, believes that although Yin Xiyue made a tough speech on China during the presidential campaign, he now has to consider the role of the North Korea and China and China economy and trade.At the same time, the Chinese government sent the vice chairman of the country to attend the inaugural ceremony of President Yin Xiyue, showing the will to manage Korean -China relations.
Kang Junrong, a professor of Chinese discipline at the University of Foreign Languages, said that the Yin Xiyue government has always mentioned the importance of strengthening Korean -American relations, and China has expressed concern.In the past, South Korea's presidential inauguration ceremony, China usually dispatched deputy prime ministers or officials at the state committee.This time, the Chinese side sent Wang Qishan to South Korea, and the specifications exceeded the past.China has also conveyed information to South Korea's new government.
The Yonhap News Agency analyzed that Yin Xiyue government previewed that in the situation of competition between China and the United States, re -setting in the direction of US diplomacy, trying to introduce South Korea to the United States, Japan, and China that kept their vigilance in China.The tug -of -war war gradually became clear.
Yin Xiyue proposed to achieve the goal of North Korea's nuclear non -nuclear
In terms of policy to the DPRK, Yin Xiyue put forward the goal of "realizing North Korea's final and verifying nuclearization" in the national political topic.The analysis believes that this seems to inherit the "complete, verifiable and irreversible nuclearization" proposed by the then President Bush in 2002.This is different from the staged and progressive nuclearization of Wen Zaiyin's government, which means that the Yin Xiyue government will change the soft attitude of Wen Zaiyin's government and turn to tough.
This transformation is partly due to the policies of the Wen Zaiyin government's high and low downs.In the past five years, Wen Zaiyin's government has devoted most of the diplomatic resources to North Korea. The South Korean North Korean leader held three historic documents and signed two historic documents of the Banmen Store Declaration and the 9.19 Military Agreement. The Korean Peninsula showed a long -lost ease.However, after the rupture of the Hanoi North Korea and the United States Summit in 2019, the relationship between South Korea and North Korea fell rapidly with the deterioration of North Korea and the United States.
Zheng Geng, a North Korean Research Center at the Sejong Research Institute, believes that North Korea already knows that every time the South Korean regime is alternate, it will also change a huge change in the policy of North Korea.Hick, a well -known American nuclear expert, said, "Even if the relevant countries have a positive will will have a will, it is expected that North Korea will not have a nuclearization at least 10 to 15 years."If the new government does not pass the cooperation of the court and the field to formulate a sustainable policy against the DPRK, it is difficult to look forward to the South Korean and North Korean relations, and it is difficult for South Korea -DPRK relations to promote it.
In the foreign relations of South Korea, the biggest change brought by Yin Xiyue may be the Korean -Japanese relationship.During Wen Zaiyin's tenure, the controversy of South Korea -Japan relations due to territory, the comfort women of the Second World War, and the workers continued to decline, reaching the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1965.
In order to improve the relationship between South Korea and Japan, Yin Xiyue sent a "South Korea -Japan Policy Council delegation" to Japan before taking office to discuss the suspension of the two countries and meet with senior officials such as Kishida Kishida.At the same time, Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng attended the inauguration ceremony of Yin Xiyue and met with Park Zhen.
Yin Xiyue showed a strong will to improve Korean and Japanese relations.On March 28, he said at the meeting with the Japanese Ambassador to Korea."
He emphasized that South Korea and Japan are partners in the sharing of multiple cooperation issues such as security and economic prosperity. In order to overcome the infarction situation of recent Korean -Japanese relations, it is necessary to build a future -oriented cooperative relationship based on the correct historical understanding.
Some evaluation believes that the new president and Wen Zaiyin have the opposite attitude of the early stage of taking office and the then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, emphasizing the resolution of historical issues.
South Korea Jingxiang News pointed out that Wen Zaiyin's foreign policy did not achieve results was to despise Japan's diplomacy.Yin Xiyue's government puts South Korean -American relations in the first foreign policy, but the United States believes that South Korean and American -Japan -Japan cooperation is the best priority of the Asian strategy.If South Korea wants to strengthen the League level with the United States, it is difficult to achieve with the current Korean -Japanese relations.
Jingxiang News said that the contradictions between South Korea and Japan should first solve the compensation of Korean workers forced by Japanese companies during World War II.Of course, solving the problem of mandatory collection compensation does not mean that all the contradictions between South Korea and Japan have disappeared.However, if this problem cannot be solved, the basic trust required to improve the relationship cannot be accumulated.This is the first step in repairing South Korean relations, and it is also the first measure to take Yin Xiyue's government's foreign policy.
Yin Xiyue's dilemma is no less than any president of the previous session.There are rejuvenation of the economy, there are China and the United States, and the North Korean nuclear provocation, and the crisis of the peninsula is heavy.
With a half disadvantage of the ruling party, how Yin Xiyue is in power smoothly, it will be seen.
