International Special Special
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the United States and European countries quickly jointly jointly imposed a series of sanctions on Russia to block its funding sources in order to force it to withdraw troops from Ukraine. On March 8th, the United States and the United Kingdom announced the ban on Russian energy imports, but the European Union, which is highly dependent on Russian energy, especially natural gas -or it should be said that it cannot be said that it cannot——Mind immediately, until this week did not propose to embarked on Russia's oil at the end of this year, but it did not touch natural gas. Russia is aimed at the fatal weakness of the European Union and takes the opportunity to differentiate the Western anti -war camp.However, Russia's energy -weapon can also make European determination to cut Russian energy. Russia and Europe have lost two defeats, and they are eventually victimized.
On April 27, European countries worried that two months would eventually happen.Russia, which has been punished by Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine, has finally counterattacked the European energy weakness, cut off the natural gas supply of Poland and Bulgaria, and used energy as a weapon against Western sanctions.
Russia's reason for "qi" is that Poland and Bulgaria do not pay for the purchase of natural gas according to the requirements of Russia.Because according to the decree issued by the Russian President Putin on March 31, the countries that "unfriendly" Russia, including all EU countries, cannot pay with the euro or the US dollar as in the past.Give it to the Russian Energy Giant Russia (Gazprom).
According to Moscow's solution, foreign natural gas buyers must open two accounts at Gazprombank in Russia (Gazprombank), deposit the euro and USD of the natural gas costs into one of the accounts, and then convert them to rubles by the bank.Transfer to the second account and pay to Russia, so as to complete the payment procedure.
For Russia's refusal to collect the euro or the US dollar, the analysis believes that it may be that the euro or US dollar payment will increase Russia's foreign exchange reserves, but these reserves have frozen since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, and the supply of natural gas with rubles can be supported seriously.Russian economy.
Frederick Kliem, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute, answered this when he asked Lianhe Zaobao.He believes that most US dollars and euro foreign exchange reserves owned and obtained by Russia cannot be used by Western sanctions, so it can benefit it immediately.In addition, Moscow pays military expenditures with rubles instead of US dollars or euros; obtaining ruble payment can stabilize the ruble exchange rate and provide funds for Russian military without having to "print" money, because this may lead to higher higherinflation.
Wang Yili, a lecturer at the EU "Jean Moane" and the director of the EU Research Center of Renmin University of China, believes that in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Russia requests to settle in rubles, it should also be helpless, because the West has already put it in the WestKick out the SWIFT international payment system so that it can only be settled with gold, rubles or RMB."So Russia now says that if you want to use my energy, you have to use my ruble to settle."
Energy weapons seem to split European scholars: Europe is currently rare unity
Putin proposed that the threat of "qi" not to settle in the settlement of rubles has taken the key to European countries. After all, about 40 % of the natural gas supply in Europe comes from Russia and cannot find such a huge alternative energy in a short time.For supply, European industry may fall into a pause, and heating equipment cannot operate as usual.Therefore, after Putin's decree was promulgated, many European countries sought instructions for the European Commission to know how to continue to buy Russia's natural gas without violating the EU's sanctions on Russia.
But the European Commission gave ambiguous instructions: on the one hand, informing countries, using ruble settlement may violate EU sanctions, and on the other hand, it is recommended that countries do not violate the payment by the euro payment and declare that the payment is completed before exchanged for the ruble, it will not be violatedSanctions.EU diplomats say that the European Commission is deliberately ambiguous because it is worried that tough positions may promote Russia to suddenly cut off natural gas supply.
This has made European countries react differently on Russia's ruble requests.Bulgaria and Poland, who had originally intended to stop importing Russia's natural gas this year, refused to participate, and were disconnected.However, Germany, which relies heavily on Russian energy, agrees with the European Commission, and the Olban government, who has always had a good relationship with Russia, directly stated that domestic buyers can participate in the Russian payment mechanism.
From this perspective, Putin's energy "weapon" seems to split the unity of Europe after the outbreak of the European war in Ukraine.
In this regard, Professor Wang Yili of Renmin University of China believes that because the economic competitiveness of the southeast and Northwestern Europe is different, Europe was originally split.In general, compared with Western European countries, Central and Eastern Europe's economic competitiveness is relatively weak, and the former Soviet countries are more inclined to reduce the use of Russian energy because Russia is worried that Russia has weapons.But even Germany and Britain, which are also European economic powers, have different demand for Russian energy.Germany is a major manufacturing country and requires cheap Russian energy. However, Britain has been highly financed. The demand for natural gas is mainly for winter heating in life, so the demand for Russian energy is not great.
These differences will naturally affect the reaction of European countries to threaten Russia.As a result, Klim is not worried that Europe will be differentiated by Russia's policy.He pointed out that although the problems and differences still exist, Europe, including Britain, rarely unite.
As for Hungary and its prime minister Olban, they seem to be happy to meet Putin's ruble settlement requirements. Krem pointed out that Hungary is actually the risk of unwillingness to confess as Germany.He also believes that the choice of Olban is for the interests of the Hungarian people. Although this is not pleasing to Brussels, he knows that Hungary stays in the European Union is the best choice.
The threat of Russia's confession is like a knife hanging on the head of European countries, and I don't know when it will fall.Of course, Europe will not be controlled by others, and it is actively looking for alternative energy, such as buying liquefied natural gas from the United States, Africa and the Middle East, and developing renewable energy.The EU has set a goal to reduce Russia's natural gas imports of two -thirds by the end of the year. In 2027, there is no need for Russian natural gas at all.
Broken supply to Europe also lost a lot of income
Russia also understands that it cannot last for the natural gas checks and balances of European countries, so some analysts worry that Russia will use energy "weapons" as soon as possible instead of waiting for European countries to prepare.Putin issued a new policy on Tuesday (3rd), and the government asked the government to formulate it within 10 daysA blacklist sanctioned and prohibited individuals and physical export products and raw materials on the blacklist.Putin shows that this is a response to Western sanctions, and new measures means that Moscow may stop exporting energy to Europe at any time.
This is actually not good for Russia.Europe may need to implement energy distribution due to sudden disconnection, which leads to turns power outages across the country, factory shutdown, and economic recession; however, Russia will also lose a lot of income.
It is estimated that since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia has sold approximately 21 billion euros (about S $ 30.7 billion) of pipeline natural gas to Europe, accounting for nearly half of Russia's energy sales of Europe.Without this big customer, Russia will have to close many Siberian gas wells because it has no other pipeline routes to resold natural gas to other customers.In addition, if the Russian oil embargo proposed by the European Union this week, it will also cause Russia to lose 450 million US dollars (about S $ 620 million) in revenue per day.
The World Bank has estimated that Western sanctions on Russia will cause the Russian economy to shrink by eight to 10 percentage points this year.If European energy purchase continues to decrease, the Russian economy may be worse.
Excessive relying on Russian Energy Germany is the most vulnerable
Regardless of Russia's cutting of energy supply or the implementation of energy embargo in Europe, Germany is the most vulnerable in Europe.
Germany is promoting the elimination of coal -fired power generation for climatic reasons. Before, it was rushed to turn off the nuclear power plant due to nuclear disasters in Japan, which led it to excessively rely on natural gas.It is the largest natural gas consumer in Europe, accounting for about a quarter of its total energy consumption. Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, more than half of Germany's natural gas imported from Russia.
In addition, about one -third of Germany's oil and nearly half of coal are also from Russia.
After the outbreak of the war, Germany has gradually reduced its dependence on Russia's energy. Now Russia's natural gas, oil and coal account for only 35%, 12%, and 8%of Germany's usage.Nevertheless, Germany still cannot get rid of the dependence on Russia's natural gas in the short term.The German Economic Minister of Economic Minister Habeck estimates that Germany will take two years, and it is not possible to do not need Russian natural gas until mid -2024.
Allocation of energy is the "final method"
In order to prevent Russia's sudden confession, Germany has launched a "warning" stage of emergency plan to set up a crisis group to monitor supply, and at the same time require enterprises and families to reduce energy consumption as much as possible.The later stage of the emergency plan may involve the distribution of natural gas.
According to the plan, hospitals, emergency services and medical product manufacturers give priority to their energy supply, followed by home users.The use of natural gas accounted for a quarter of the country's industries was first broken.
This has caused the German industry to worry now.Imagine that if the manufacturing giant relying on natural gas operations, like the steel group Thyssenkrupp, chemical company Basf and Bayer Bayer, there are several 100,000 associated with each other.Small and medium -sized enterprises are suspended. What will happen?
Industry insiders warn that at that time, the production of building materials, synthetic materials, pesticides, disinfection agents, packaging and semiconductors, to the production of antibiotics, coronary vaccines and anticancer drugs will all be affected.Forecast, but it is definitely a large range.Some people predict that the supply chain, which was originally under tremendous pressure due to the crown disease epidemic, will collapse completely under the new pressure. At the same time, many companies have declared bankruptcy, and there are countless people who have unemployment.
Huoffman, the head of the union of 1.2 million workers in the chemistry, metal processing and food production industries, warned that Germany would fall into a serious decline and seriously "before seeing" when he was interviewed by Reuters.
Even if Germany has not yet reached the stage of energy, reducing imported Russian energy has led to soaring energy prices, and German economic prospects have become dim.In Germany last week, the forecast of this year's economic growth rate was reduced from 3.6%to 2.2%, and this has not considered energy embargo or blockade consideration to Russia.If the Economic Minister Habeck said that the German economy would fall into a recession.
The weakened economic strength, Germany's international status and influence must be affected.Krim believes that this is the result of Germany's excessive relying on a single source; although Berlin is correcting this weakness, it will take many years to not import resources from Russia at all, and he is estimated that it may be 10 years.
The German people are forced to change their living habits
The German people have felt the pressure of rising domestic energy prices.
Daniel Tirok (42) from Baden -Fudenburg, southwest of Germany, accepted a Lianhe Zaobao interview that compared with last year, the prices of gasoline and diesel have doubled.The liter is about 2 euros (about S $ 2.9).This has led his monthly gasoline expenses from about 250 euros in January last year to about 600 euros today.
In addition, the price of heating oil used by their heating system has also soared.In January of this year, the price of heating oil was about 85 euros per 100 liters. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, it immediately soared to 250 euros, and now it is about 120 to 130 euros.Tirke said that he and his wife and daughter's family generally need to pay 2,100 euros each year to meet the demand for heating, but at the current price, the heating fee for a year may be 4,550 euros.
More people carpool and ride bicycles
In terms of electricity bills, Tirok and Robin Mars (45 years old) from Baden and Sophia Henze in Bavaria, Southern, said that they signed long -term contracts with the supply of e -commerce to in the contract.Merchants cannot start prices during the validity period, so they are not affected for the time being.
The German Economic Minister Habeck urged the country to reduce energy consumption.He suggested that employers let employees work at home every Monday two days, and people should try to ride bicycles or change public transport when traveling.Habeck said: "Just driving one kilometer to help us be more likely to get rid of the dependence on Russian energy."
In response to the government's appeal, Tirok and his wife shared the car. In the past, he would go home to take care of children and pets in the afternoon. Now he has changed the habit of returning home in the afternoon and saved about 300 euros of oil.Their family also reduced heating temperature from 23 degrees Celsius to 21 degrees.
Tirke also observed that the surrounding neighbors and relatives and friends are more inclined to carpool and bicycle when traveling.
Heng Ce found that friends started carpooling, but she believed that the German bus system was old and not perfect, so that many people could not drive.Mars noticed that despite the relief of the crown disease and the people can return to the company, many people are still at home.
As for energy supply, it may be tight that the government may need to be matched. Trok said he was already preparing, such as buying when the price of oil heating oil was low.There is a fireplace in his living room. If the situation is urgent, he can use wood to heat up.He also formulated an emergency plan for winter, such as heating only a small part of the home so as to reduce energy consumption as much as possible.
Sanctions on Russia's energy will make the Germans unable to enjoy cheap energy, and Trock and Mars are simultaneously supporting the government to stop buying Russian energy.Tirke believes that Germany should not be so dependent on Russian energy at all.Mars says that even if prices have risen, Germany should stop buying anything from Russia because life, freedom and democracy are more important than money.
Heng Ce believes that Russia still reliable export weapons to earn foreign exchange even if Europe does not buy Russian energy.Russia even if the income is reducedIt will still invest most of the funds into military, and the Russian civilians are eventually suffering.
