International Special Special

Fu Zhu Hui

Tokyo Special Commissioner

[email protected]

gasoline, coal and electricity In social life and economic industries indispensable. Russia is the world's natural gas and crude oil exporter, After invading Ukraine in late February, Western countries initiated sanctions on Russia's economic sanctions, Including disconnecting energy transactions with Russia. This impact on the world energy market The Japanese economic and industrial department report pointed out that Since the 21st century, I have never realized as strong as today Energy crisis. Whether the Russian and Ukraine battle will evolve into energy battle? Japanese officials and related companies How will they face this Energy challenge?

Tokyo Electric Power Corporation, which is the main market in Kanto, Japan, announced on the 22nd of last month that the power supply is in a "severe" situation.Although the occurrence of earthquakes in the Fukushima in the Northeast region caused some power plant equipment to suspend shipments, Japan officially used this situation to issue warns, arguing that the international current situation may trigger Japan's energy crisis, and it also released the first "power supply and demand alert" in history.Essence

On the same day, in order to cooperate with the call for power saving, the electrical store closed the TV that displayed the product; the shops on commercial streets also closed the signature lamp at night, and the Night of the capital Tokyo no longer flashed.

Japan Wedge magazine issued an official saying that the official alarm means that Japan may become a country with a "normal power outage".The prices of fossil fuel, coal, oil and liquefied gas imported in Japan have soared in the past year.The European energy crisis caused by the war of Russia and Ukraine has also led to the high price of fossil fuel.Nowadays, the yen has continued to depreciate, which has even more stress on Japan's external procurement energy. The cost adjustment of some major power companies has reached the upper limit.This article also pointed out pessimistic: "For a country with power outages, the dream of realizing electric vehicle society will become a bubble."

Japan's main energy resources are poor, and the rate of energy is only 11.2%.After the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida came to power, one of the "Economic Security" ministers, one of the purpose was to ensure that energy and food supply was guaranteed.After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war, the energy crisis problem has become a major focus of the Kishida government's policy.

One week after Russia sent troops in Ukraine, the world's crude oil prices reached the highest position in 13 years and eight months, approaching $ 140 per barrel (about S $ 191).In fact, since last summer, international gas, crude oil, and power prices have risen.The Japanese government has adopted subsidy measures at the end of January this year to suppress soaring gasoline prices. After the Russian and Ukraine war began, the upper limit of this subsidy continued to increase, reaching 25 yen per liter (about S $ 0.27).

In Japan's energy importing country, Russia plays a lot of roles.According to Japanese resources and energy department data, 3.6%crude oil, 9%natural gas, and 13%of fuel coal are imported from Russia.There are also many energy cooperation projects between Japan and Russia, especially the Russian Sahalin Natural Gas Cooperation and Development Project participated by Japan.

From a geographical point of view, Sahalin Island is the closest place to Russia to Japan, and it is only 43 kilometers from Hokkaido.Although Japan and Russia have controversy in the territory of the four northern islands, the cooperation led by Sahalin Island is a mutually beneficial channel for the mutual cooperation between the two countries and enhanced communication.According to the Japanese Broadcasting Association (NHK) documentary, the shallow sea floor of the coastal coastal line of Sahalin Island is a huge natural gas warehouse.The survey shows that the island's natural gas mining volume can reach 2.4 trillion cubic meters, which is equivalent to the 24 -year usage of Japan.

The Sahalin project is the Japanese energy life pulse

The oil crisis in the 1970s prompted Japan to expand energy sources other than oil.After the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Japan's cooperation in Sahalin was implemented.For joint mining, the Japanese ruling party's Liberal Democratic Party was very active. In 2015, a Japanese -Russian natural gas pipeline promotion group was established to be responsible for negotiating with the Russian side.According to the plan, Hokkaido will be used as a natural gas transportation base in the future to build a conveyor tube to the capital to Tokyo.

The earliest launch was "Sahalin No. 1" oil and gas field. In addition to Japan and Russia, the US petroleum giant EXXONMOBIL and Indian state -owned enterprises were also participated.Exxon Mobil subsidiaries have 30%of the shares, Russian oil companies account for 20%, the Japanese government -led Sahalin Island Oil and Gas Development Company accounts for 30%, and 20%of Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Company (ONGC).

Japan's official view of Sahalin No. 1 is the national policy. Half of the funds comes from the official, and the other participation are large Japanese companies, such as the famous Cashihashi Aoi Choya, Maruhong, and so on.The export market of this project is mainly in Asia. In addition to Japan, it also exports to South Korea and China.

It is understood that because the Sahalin No. 1 project is progressing smoothly, Japanese companies have boldly invested funds in the "Sahalin 2" project.Later, the Sahalin No. 2 project became Japan's energyLife pulse, 9%of the total natural gas imported from Russia, Sahalin provided 7.8%.

Exploring the new living road:

Promote Renewable Energy

Research New Energy

One of the members of the Japanese government's energy think tank, Kurosaki Miki, believes: "The energy crisis in Japan is a possible thing at any time. To solve the energy problem completely, it is necessary to increase the self -sufficiency rate of energy. Japan can only do it at present.By 12%, the lowest among developed countries. The goal of the Japanese government was to achieve 30%of the total consumption in 2030. At present, it is a living way to promote renewable energy and research new energy. "

Guishan Kangzi, director of the Social System of the National Institute of Environment, believes: "The Russian war is Japan's largest energy alarm clock. In Japan, in addition to solar energy and wind energy, there is a geothermal energy that has great potential but not developed.The field war is terrible, but the crisis is also a turnaround. It is an opportunity for countries to cooperate with each other to create renewable energy. "

Guan Shanjian, an associate professor at Kyoto University who studies new energy, believes: "The situation of Russia and Ukraine will induce Japan to restart nuclear energy and be in the energy crisis. At present, more and more people have called for renewable energy to achieve stable power supply.The only choice of stable price is nuclear power. "

Public opinion: Walk back to the nuclear power road under the energy crisis.

At present, 13 countries have called for nuclear power in European countries.The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently announced a plan to reduce the dependence of Russia's natural gas to Russia to less than half of this year, and urged suppliers to purchase natural gas outside Russia, using renewable energy, nuclear power, hydrogen, etc.

After experiencing an accident at the East Japan Earthquake and Tokyo Power Company Fukushima First Nuclear Power Station, the general public in Japan is familiar with the danger and vulnerability of nuclear power in emergency situations.However, Japan has also recently called for a "battle crisis" to call on the way back, thinking that it is inevitable to restart the nuclear power.

Sugiyama Dazhi, chief researcher at the Canon International Institute of International Strategy in Japan, posted a article on environmental energy magazines and advocated that during the war period, it was time to stabilize energy supply."The conflict between Russia and the West may be extended. Russia will be excluded from the global market. Petroleum and gas will be in short supply and global prices will soar. Increasing renewable energy will only stimulate the current energy price increase, and further push higher high higher levels.Inflation. Japan must stop the clever decarbolization policy, revive fossil fuel, and maximize the use of nuclear power and coal -fired power generation, which helps reduce Japan's energy prices. "

A report by news states that Japan should re -evaluate its dependence on China.It is particularly worth noting that electric vehicles need a large amount of mineral resources. Among them, the rare earth "钕 He and cobalt as a battery manufacturing raw material, the supply of Chinese companies has an overwhelming share in global output.If economic sanctions on China are required, China may stop supplying the above resources. At that time, Japanese factories will stop and industry will be destroyed. "

The Sahalin project is difficult to withdraw or not withdraw from Japan

After the Great Eastern Japan's 201 2011 Great Earthquake caused an accident, Japan stopped using nuclear energy power generation, which greatly increased the proportion of natural gas thermal power generation, and currently accounts for 40%of the power generation.

The Japan Broadcasting Association reported that Japan was very popular in Sahalin and cast more than 3 trillion yen (about S $ 32.6 billion) locally.Russia and Ukraine suddenly broke out, and Japan fell into a "dilemma" situation.The United States and British oil companies participating in these projects have retreated one after another, but Japanese officials were unrequited and thought about how to leave a energy way for themselves?

After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the British Petroleum Giant Shell announced the withdrawal from the Sahalin No. 2 project. On March 1, Exxon Mobil also decided to withdraw from the Sahalin No. 1 project.Japanese Economic News quoted Japanese company executives that Japanese companies have always negotiated with the Japanese government in private, and most of the opinions are "not withdrawn."

Nikkei reports that Japan and Russia have signed long -term contracts in energy, and the price is naturally lower than the current price.The risk statistics made by Japan's natural gas business society show that once the Russian energy pipeline is broken and the purchase of "spot" from other channels, the cost will rise 1.7 trillion yen in one year.If you cannot find a substitute for energy, the Japanese life will be affected.

Energy companies are worried that electricity prices and natural gas prices that have been on the rise will not be able to avoid further rise.

A corporate cadre pointed out: "Losing the Sahalin project is different from Japan and the United States. For American investors, it is only one of many investment, but Japan is different.How can I easily withdraw the important decision of oil risk? "

As the sanctions from Western countries have intensified, some large Japanese companies have suspended their business in Russia.Miyamura Miyamura, the president of the Japanese Commercial and Industry Conference, is afraid that the Japanese official will put pressure on Russia's imported energy. He reminds: "Russia's behavior is indeed unforgivable, but Sahalin's natural gas is the top priority to Japan.Energy, then in the case of natural gas shortage in the world, China is very likely to buy them at high prices. Such a result does not conform to the interests of Japan. "

Worried about the "fisherman who"

In the past, because of considering economic and trade relations with China, the Japanese financial community usually did not speak loudly.This time, in order to keep Russia's energy investment, it is rare to openly name "China".

Japanese officials have always been vigilant about whether to withdraw from the Sahalin project, and there has always been a vigilant heart that "Japan withdrew and China may be profitable."

Earlier last month, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and Minister of Economy and Industry Takada discussed the strategy of sanctioning Russia, including whether to withdraw from the Sahalin Island project.

After the

meeting, Takuda Kiyoshi pointed out: "We know that withdrawal from the Sahalin project can play a sanction, but it must be considered that once we give up, the third country (referred to China) will take action."

It has been reported that in Russia's supply of Japanese natural gas energy, the largest amount of use is Kishida Political Site Hiroshima Power Company, which in 2020 reached 47.7%of the total import volume.This is also the internal affairs concerns that Kishida has to think twice about the withdrawal of Russia's energy strategy.

On the 1st of this month, Kishida Wenxiong made a decision on whether to let go of the Sahalin project: "Japan will be adjusted uniformly with the seven major industrial countries to reduce the energy dependence on Russia.Harlem's oil and gas development project Sahalin No. 2. It can supply liquefied natural gas for a long time and cheaply, which is an extremely important project in Japanese energy safety. "

However, on March 31, Russian President Putin signed a decree with "unfriendly countries" such as the United States, Europe, and Japan for natural gas trade settlement, which made Japan worried.

Senior Japanese officials pointed out in a press conference: "Russia's energy strategy is uncertain and it is difficult to interpret. Even if Japan has the willingness to withdraw from, the official must consider trying to reduce its dependence on Russia. Therefore, Japan has always paid close attention to Japan's internal attentionThe inventory of the power company instructions must ensure that the inventory balance must be ensured. At the same time, the official also accelerates contact with other energy countries to ensure that the energy supply is not controlled by Russian policies.