Special
France held the second round of voting of the presidential election on the 24th of this month. Like the last election, the final election was still a struggle between President Macron and the candidate of the Right -wing National League Le Pen.Unlike 2017, voters have been replaced by dissatisfaction and complaints about Macron's freshness and expectations. Le Pen, who has successfully reshaped the image, is no longer a "impossible task."
This election has a significant impact on the relationship between France and the European Union, NATO and the United States. If the Laisishe Palace is Laurong, it may undermine the unity of Western co -anti -Russia and subverting France as a European leading country.And shake and split NATO.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the international community has "cut off" with Moscow. In the past, Le Pen, who appreciated Russian President Putin, also tried to keep a distance from him.However, in an earlier interview, Le Pond said that after the war, Putin "can once again become a French allies" showed that its pole position has not changed.
Unlike Macron's active participation in the EU and NATO affairs, Le Pen is very disgusted with these two leagues.Although she temporarily abandoned France from controversial policies such as the European Union and the euro zone, she still advocated that France should choose which EU laws should be pursued by themselves, unilaterally cut their contributions to the European Union budget, etc.; This is tantamount to maintaining the surface relationshipPartial ways with the European Union.
The analysis of the European Reform Center pointed out that Le Pen's election will cause the European Union to fall into political confusion and difficult to pass the new legislation; a greater problem is that France may also tease the EU with other nationalist member states.
This election may give birth to the European Right League."If it is a very right -wing candidate if he wins," the European Foreign Relations Committee may form a certain alliance or axis in Europe.The photo of shaking hands, she is advocating a Europe composed of a strong national country. "
In addition to destroying the EU's internal stability, "President Le Pen" will also impact European external security.She criticized NATO as a "good organization", to allow France to withdraw from the NATO military integration system and advocate the suspension of cooperation with Germany's defense industry.The New York Times commented: "If Le Pen wins, a anti -NATO and French France, which are more pro -Russia, will cause deep concerns of the allies and destroy the unity response of the cross -Atlantic alliance to the invasion of Ukraine in Russia."
The United States needs a reliable Paris partner
The US Politico website reported that the Bayeng government was worried that if Lele Pen was elected and asked France to withdraw from NATO. Other member states that were tough due to NATO's strong attitude towards Russia would also follow up, causing NATO to fall apart.France is an old allies in the United States and the only country in the European Union to have veto in the United Nations Security Council. From sanctioning Russia to extensive issues such as climate change, the United States needs a reliable Paris partner.
Macron is the victory of the European Union if reelected
Lauren Sperana at the European Policy Analysis Center described that Le Pen pose a historic threat to one of the most important bodies in Europe."She once praised Putin's war criminal, (her party) relied on Russia's funding. If she came to lead France ... this will directly help Putin to achieve the goal of deepening NATO division." Some comments even believe that Le Pen's election will be PutinMajor victory.
Macron will be the victory of the European Union, and it will also make NATO relieved."Macron insisted that in the situation where Macron insisted that Macron insisted that in the situation of confrontation between the world's power, it was necessary to strengthen the EU's economic and strategic autonomy.Get verification. "
In the past few years, Le Pen has worked hard to shape a more gentle image. The Ukrainian war may have hit her election, but she focused on the election on the economic issue early in the morning, making the campaign on hold on the international event such as the Ukraine crisisMacron seemed unknown people's suffering.
French consumer price index rose 4.5%year -on -year, a new high since the 1980s.Le Pen promised to defend the purchasing power of French families and successfully impressed voters.In view of the rising price is a global phenomenon, countries are paying close attention to the French elections, including the United States, which held mid -term elections in November.
The gap between the polls between the two parties is about 2 percentage points
Macron received 27.84%of the votes in the first round of voting on the 10th, and entered the second round of election with Le Pen with 23.15%of the votes.In the first round of the last round of the last election, Macron won a slightly votes with a vote of 21.3%with a 24%vote rate, and then was elected with a huge advantage of 66%than 34%.One percentage point.
Most analysis believes that the opportunity for Le Pen Sheng to choose is still small, but the middle school Macron must double the efforts to keep the president's throne.The following is a few observations of Politico on the first round of voting:
1. Macron and Le Pen Two Fighters
Macron and Le Pen again downtime, confirming the analysis of the current status of the two in French politics: the differences between the left and right wings have been replaced by the opposition between the mainstream political party group and the nationalist party group that are open to the outside world and the public.EssenceThe two's votes this time were higher than the last time, causing the traditional camps to fall in a more chaotic state than before.
2. Zimerer is hopeless to become "French Edition Trump"
Eric Zemmour, a candidate for the re -party party, once ranked second in polls, but after the outbreak of the Ukraine War, he praised Putin's remarks in the past.Essence
3. Mei Langxiong or the creation king
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a candidate for French party, ranked third with about 22%, and supports the flow of his votes or a decisive role in the results of the election.Melangxiong called for supporters not to give Le Pen any vote, but did not ask them to be elected Macron.
4. Former ruling party decline
The two traditional parties, the two traditional parties, who have been in power, were killed by the two traditional parties, and Republican candidates.The party has always been the worst achievement.
5. The abandonment rate is lower than expected
The abandonment rate of the first round of voting is as high as 26%, but it is still lower than 30%of the prediction of polls.Under the election, the voting rate in the second round may be around the election results.
