International Special
Cai Tiancheng
Russia and Ukraine's war began for more than a month, focusing on the confrontation between the United States and Russia.No matter what the game is, no matter what the result is, it will inevitably change the global pattern. The West and Asian powers have their own calculations. Although France and Germany, which are both NATO, are still retained although they are anti -Russia. Japan in Asia has a fuzzy position in Russia and the South Asian countries in Europe and the United States. On the contrary, Ukraine is adjacent to small nations to see weak meat and strong food, and provides military reserve assistance, so as to prevent Ukraine in case of occupation, it will inevitably become the next goal.
The U.S. intimate allies in the United Kingdom are positive, following the pace of the United States, and tough Russia's position.A few days ago, the Kremlin attacked British Prime Minister Johnson as an anti -Russian pioneer.The fact is true.Since the outbreak of war, Britain has sanctioned more than 1,000 individuals and corporate institutions in Russia.Johnson also suggested to Western allies to expand existing sanctions to further pressure.
Fa strive to talk about peace talks.
The French President Macron formed a strong contrast with Johnson.Before the Russian President Putin ordered the invasion as early as February 24, Macron had launched a shuttle diplomacy and flew to Moscow to meet with Putin.After the war, Macron still did not give up diplomatic efforts, hoping to fight for the Russian and Ukraine talks to end the war.When the US President Biden publicly pointed out that Putin was a butcher and published a provocative remark for him to continue to take power in power, Macron immediately stood up to cool down and persuaded the United States not to rashly heat up the situation.
European powers and Germany's attitudes before and after the war have changed from soft to hard.Before the war, German Prime Minister Tsurtz did not want to make trouble with Russia and refused to give up the Beixi No. 2 natural gas pipeline project that Germany paid attention to.In terms of assistance in Ukraine, Germany did not dare to send weapons to Ukraine. In January this year, it was scratched by Ukraine because he promised to transport 5,000 military helmets in Ukraine.However, after the war, Germany's position was reversed immediately, and several batches of advanced weapons such as anti -tanks and air defense missiles were generously generously sent. Shuorz was an anti -predecessor's Merkel era, announcing a significant increase in defense expenses.
However, Germany has always voted.Because Germany rely on Russia's energy.At the end of last month, Tsugs warned that Russian energy imports were immediately banned from economic recession in Germany and even the entire Europe.He pointed out that Germany will end its energy dependence on Russia at an appropriate time. Now cutting off all energy relationships will make the German economy caught off guard.
Japan's Breaking Customer Provide Military Aid Hanmei summit calls highlight all ally relations
Japan's attitude turned hard, joined the European and American sanctions as soon as possible, and even provided non -fatal military aid for Ukraine, breaking the country's practice over the years.
Solis, director of the East Asian Policy Research Center of Washington Think Tank, said that Japan's response to the Ukrainian crisis is noticeable because the Japanese government is not as seeing the attitude as in the past.Several polls in Japan show that most Japanese people support sanctions on Russia. They are generally worried that if Japan will invade Ukraine in Russia, the choice will be unknown. In the future, China may encourage China to learn and do the same thing in Asia.
In order to retaliate against Japan, Russia not only withdrew from the Russian -Japan Peace Treaty negotiations, but also launched a military exercise in the South Thousand Islands of the South Thousand Islands of the Dispute Territory of the two countries to demonstrate.
Japan and Russia have not yet concluded a peace treaty on the end of the World War II. The main dispute is that Japan wants Russia to return the islands occupied by the Soviet army at the end of World War II.These islands are dental dances, Sendan, Nationwa, and chosen to catch them north of Hokkaido, Japan.
In the past, Japan was afraid of Russia and did not dare to be too tough to Russia for the sovereignty of the four islands.The Abe even showed good to Russia and tried to win.Today, Russia is not good at teachers. At the time of care, the Japanese government has also changed its policy on Russia.Solis said: In the Abe era, Russia's policy was basically dead. Through economic contact, the argument that can avoid the close strategic partnership between China and Russia. It has no market.
In the face of pressure from China, more and more people in the country demand to increase national defense expenses. Therefore, Japan is expected to review the situation and reshape its own defense strategy.
South Korea also strongly condemned Russia and participated in international sanctions to Russia.South Korea's election of the new president Yin Xiyue is regarded as a pro -beauty, and is expected to change the pro -Chinese position of the former Ventaurus.
Yin Xiyue, the largest presidential candidate in the opposition party in South Korea, won the presidential election on March 10 with a slight difference. Less than five hours after the election, Yin Xiyue and the US President Bynden called.The analysis pointed out that under the severe international situation such as Incurm in Russia, the worship of Yin's call highlights the unbreakable South Korean and American alliance.For the United States, it is a good thing to move closer to the United States to the United States. It means that South Korea will not be absent and in line with the strategic significance of the United States.
India's attitude is ambiguous Security Conference decided to discard the votes
Indian arms reservations highly rely on Russia, dare not be tough for Russia, and have always been ambiguous.India has condemned the UN Security Council's resolution and voted for the voter.
Bloomberg analyzed that India is the largest buyer of Russian weapons, and many fighters, submarines and tanks in India are Russia.If India wants to replace all the existing Russian military reserve and turn to other countries to buy, the loss will be tens of billions of dollars.Therefore, it is impossible to decoup up with Russia in the armament.
Lu Jin, deputy director of the regional and international research center of the Far East University of the Farth East of Russia, said that India and Russia have decades of special strategic partnerships. Although it is not comparable to the Soviet era, it is still India today that Moscow is still India.Important strategic partnerships are equally important as the United States.He also said: There are no major disputes in these two countries. In the balance between Eurasia's strong forces, they have common basic interests.
In the Pacific strategy of the United States, India has certain importance. The Quartet Security Dialogue (QUAD) The United States, Australia, and Japan of the remaining three countries do not want to overemphasize India to avoid public tearing.
Nevertheless, now the three -way wrestling of the United States, China and Russia, India is not so easy to set up it outside, and may have to be forced to choose the side station in the end.
Adida, a researcher at the Taxhara Research Institute of India's Think Tank, said that a major concern of Indian foreign policy is how the result of the Russian war affects Sino -Russian relations.Adiya said: It is almost certain that Moscow will further rely on China.
In addition, Moscow began to strengthen contact with Pakistan. Pakistan was India's enemy, and India naturally did not want this situation.Analysis said that once India joins the United States and other Russian camps, Russia may have a close relationship with Pakistan, and the situation in South Asia will be more complicated at that time.
Asia Pacific and Western relations are relatively weak Nothing willing to take action
Compared with the United States, Russia's influence in Asia is small, but Asia's response is much more complicated.
Only Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Australia agreed to sanction Russia, but those countries with weak relations with the West are unwilling to take action.The Myanmar military government even claims that the Russian invasion is the right way.
Like India, there are many Asian countries that buy arms from Russia.Russia sells military reserve to Indonesia and MalaysiaAsia and Myanmar, Vietnam is the largest customer in Russia in Southeast Asia.Data from the Stockholm International Institute of International Peace, Sweden showed that from 2000 to 2019, more than 80 % of Vietnam's military reserve imports came from Russia.
In order to fight against China, Vietnam has purchased billions of dollars of grenades guns, planes and submarines from Russia, becoming one of the most combable countries in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia has strengthened its economic and defense connection with Russia for many years.Rahaja, an expert in international relations at the University of Bannu Sanda, in Jakarta: Indonesia does not consider Russia to pose a threat to global politics or treat Russia as an enemy.
In addition to calling for peace talks, Thailand, as an American allies, has no sound to the war of Russia.Although Philippines condemned the invasion of Ukraine, it did not name Russia.Vietnam did not list Russia as an invaders, but called on all parties to keep restraint.
According to analysis, the image of Putin in some countries in Southeast Asia is good. When the crown disease is the worst, Russia donated the crown vaccine to the Philippines, Vietnam and Laos.The most supporting Russia is Myanmar. After the Myanmar coup, Russia continued to sell weapons to Myanmar.In the invasion of Ukraine this time, Myanmar even expressed support for Russia.
Lip dead teeth are cold and small nations are afraid of being swallowed
If Ukraine is occupied by Russia, it will be the nightmare of neighboring countries around Ukraine.The Baltic Three Kingdoms, Estonia and Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia are afraid of being swallowed by Russia.
Lithuanian President Sada expressed concerns about the small country of China and Europe in early March.He warned that Putin would not stop in Ukraine, and countries around the world must do their best to assist Ukraine.Out of the sense of crisis, Lithuania fiercely anti -Russia called on the European Union to increase sanctions against Russia.
The Prime Minister of Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia, as the EU representative. Regardless of its danger in mid -March, he visited Kiev, Ukraine's capital with a train to publicly display his support for President Zessaki in Ukraine.This trip to adventure is very hasty and highly confidential, and even their family members have learned of the news.
Polish Prime Minister Moravitzki, Czech Prime Minister Fiara and Slovenian Prime Minister Yangsha are indeed courageous.Because the war was very unfavorable to Ukraine at that time, the Russian army advanced, and Ukraine was still beaten.
These three countries show their determination to be afraid of hardships at critical moments.They did this because of the cold lips. If they were not used with actual action, they were also the vulnerable Ukraine. Once Ukraine was occupied by Russia, they would inevitably become Russia's fish in the future.
The Czech Republic has experienced the spring of Prague and experiences the pain of power under the tyranny.Looking back at history, in January 1968, a political democratization movement appeared in the Republic of Czechoslovakia.
Small country provides Ukrainian weapons Finnish Sweden considers joining NATO
Poland has been occupied several times in history, including two world wars.Poland was Russia, occupied by Germany, and Poland was once again occupied by Germany.Therefore, it has the pain of cutting skin.
Other neighboring small countries have provided weapons to Ukraine.Finland and Sweden are not NATO members. After the war of Russia, both countries considers joining NATO.Finland and Russia had two wars from 1939 to 1944, and Finland lost large blockbusters.
Multi -countries keep watching and unwilling to choose the side station
After the war of Russia, in addition to the strong condemnation of the international community, many countries still wait and see to avoid being involved in it.
Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, accepted an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that countries have always considered interests.As an American allies, Japan also has long -term territorial disputes with Russia. Perhaps the position must be tough.Although South Korea is the same American allies, it needs Russia to help deal with differences with North Korea, so it will be more cautious.India has always had a good relationship with Russia. He believes that he has an independent position and rely on Russia's military equipment at the same time.
Wang Jiangyu, a professor at the School of Law of the City University of Hong Kong, accepted an interview with the Morning Post that this time in response to the requirements of European and American sanctions, it was mainly Western countries and one of the few other countries.Within Western countries, the breadth and intensity of sanctions in various countries also have a certain relationship with their economic dependence with Russia.For those countries that are not directly belonging to the Western camp, they lack the motivation to sanction Russia.
Wang Jiangyu said: There is a legitimate problem here, that is, this series of sanctions are not authorized by the United Nations Security Council. Therefore, other countries that are not politically belonging to the United States are not obliged to participate in sanctions in international law.In terms of actual policies, the nature of the country's profits and avoidance also makes them unwilling to take measures to destroy Russia.In other words, most countries are unwilling to choose the side.
In early March, the UN General Assembly Special Meeting adopted a resolution that Russia had strongly condemned Russia to invade Ukraine and asked the Russian army to withdraw immediately, but the resolution was not binding.Wu Muyu, an associate professor of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Public Policy, interviewed that many countries support the resolution of condemning Russia's invasion at the special meeting of the United Nations Conference, indicating that many countries around the world are willing to make a statement, but the problem is that the United Nations has no mechanism to deal with the problem of aggression.Counter a deal with Russia.
Wu Muyu said that this involving the problem of international system design has too many veto points, which hinders the response to major events.These are the issues that everyone should reflect on, how to reform, and eliminate the accumulation.
