The Russian and Ukraine War may be protracted, and this battle made the United States, NATO, and Russia, and China.How the multi -strong game will have the impact of future geopolitics and global patterns, which is a major issue that affects the vital interests of various countries.
Professor Wang Jiangyu, a professor at the School of Law, Hong Kong University, pointed out that there may be four cases of this. First, Russia confronts the West in the short period of time, and Europe has once again become the source of geopolitics instability.To unite to deal with Russia, Europe has stronger dependence on the United States; 3. The breakdown of US -Russian relations can alleviate the great strategic pressure that the United States has curbed China in the past few years and brings to China.But in the long run, regardless of Russia's act, the United States will treat China as the number one competitor; 4. Russia must increase its economic dependence on China, but China is based on its traditional diplomatic philosophy.It will form an alliance with Russia.
Wang Jiangyu said: The future world pattern will be a coexistence of the four semifinals of the United States, China, Russia and Europe for a long time. Generally speaking, the United States and Europe will be one side. China and Russia are one side.Form two camps that confront each other and the Cold War, or fire.
Wu Muxi, an associate professor of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the situation where the Ukraine war may occur next is that the Ukrainian victory and Russia were forced to withdraw, and the other was the peace agreement on the suspension of the war.
Russia can sign the peace agreement is the most ideal result
In these two cases, he believes that if Russia can sign a peace agreement, it is the ideal result.It is expected to be a conditional agreement. For example, Ukraine promises not to join NATO to eliminate Russia's security threat.Russia has always accused NATO from eastward expansion and constitutes a safety hazard to Russia.
Wu Muchi believes that, looking at the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia has to pay a painful price for invasion of Ukraine.Russia will definitely be isolated in the future, and its vitality will be injured. It seems impossible to return to the state before the war.In addition, the US sanctions against Russia, such as the United States, hit the Russian people, which affects the Russian internal affairs, especially weakening the support of the Russian people to Putin.
Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the University of National University, also believed that the evolution of the domestic situation in Russia would affect China.If Russia becomes more dependent on China, China may be more profitable in terms of fossil energy and some mineral imports, and even some military technology.If Russia is in poor mood and causes internal instability, it may be a concern for China.
He pointed out that if the Russian and Ukraine War continued and it has long attracted the attention of the United States and Europe for a long time, China may think that there will be greater opportunities to build an East Asian environment that can reduce the participation of the United States and Europe.This may cause positive response from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and other countries and regions.All in all, there are quite a lot of variables, which is more difficult to predict the consequences.
Russia's mobilization is a weak meat and strong food news
One of the warnings of Russia's aggression is weak meat and strong food. For weak countries, how can they protect themselves?
Zhuang Jiaying said that it is possible for small and medium -sized countries to establish security cooperation by themselves.The other may be an alliance with the great country.After Russia invaded Ukraine, Finland and Sweden discussed joining NATO, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to require NATO to increase the garrison in the country.It is obvious that NATO is a safe umbrella for small and medium -sized European countries. What we see now is that Russia chooses to attack Ukraine, which is not a NATO member country, but it is still cautious about NATO member states.
Wang Jiangyu said that this war perfectly reflects the limitations of contemporary international law, that is, it is not enough to restrain the aggression of large powers.However, the weak country will unite to protect themselves as a pseudo -proposition. This is because the weak country is difficult to resist a big country that is determined to act.The contradiction with the great powers has caused them to be easily differentiated.
He pointed out that after World War II, a world still establishes an international community with international rules in many fields, and all countries should try their best to maintain this order.For small countries, trying to maintain international rule of law is also the way to protect.
