If Russia does not restore energy exports to the global economic recession

● Ukrainian war

Economist Kirian and Pulangt published an article: "If the remaining time in 2022, most Russian energy exports withdraw from the market,The global economic recession seems inevitable. This slowdown may last longer than that time in 1991. "

(Washington Composite Electric)A study of a family, if Russia does not restore energy exports this year, the global economy may not avoid recession.The International Monetary Fund believes that the Ukrainian war will not lead to a global recession, and only the weak economy is facing risks.

Economist Kirian and Pronite published an article published on Tuesday: "If most of Russia's energy exports withdraw from the market in the remaining time in 2022, the global economic recession seems inevitable.This slowdown may last longer than that time in 1991. "

The two economists compared the current situation with the global economic recession in 1991.At that time, Saudi Arabia promised to increase output, which reduced its impact to a certain extent. To this end, the US economic recession only lasted less than one year.But at the moment, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has stated that it will not increase its output, which shows that once the energy crisis appears, the US economy will be severely hit.

Two economists pointed out: "There are signs that some oil importing countries are exploring to avoid using trade credit, bypassing the current financial sanctions or relying on currency other than the US dollar for payment, which may help helpIt can alleviate the blows caused by the difficulty of supply. "

But they also warned that if there was no replacement of supply, the decline in Russian energy exports would lead to further upgrading of inflation and compressed consumer expenditure."Unless the shortage of oil supply in Russia can be controlled, oil prices will inevitably rise sharply and maintain a high level for a long time to eliminate excessive demand for oil. Destruction of this demand may promote the emergence of economic recession."

Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the Ukrainian war will not lead to a global recession, but the weak economy may face risks.

IMF: The economic economy of developing countries is severely hit

Georkiya said in an interview with foreign policy magazines on Tuesday that the global outlook in 2022 was global.It will still show economic expansion, but it is not as strong as previously expected.IMF will have a new world economic forecast in April.

Georkeva pointed out that the Russian -Ukraine conflict has caused the impact of rising energy and food prices, and the punitive sanctions of Western countries on Russia will cause a heavy blow to many developing countries;As developed countries increase interest rates, financial conditions will also be tightened.

The first vice president of IMF Goganat pointed out that the reduction in Ukraine and Russian grain transportation means higher food inflation and more hunger, which may lead to parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia partsNew social tensions appear."This is a main concern. The longer the war lasts, the more serious the problem becomes the problem."

She added that IMF is ready to provide international revenue and expenditure assistance at any time to help countries in need to import food.