Specialty

Wu Hanjun

The war in Ukraine had been fighting for a month. Moscow claimed that Ukraine would "de -military and Nazi" within two weeks, and the military goals of supporting the pro -Russian government have obviously failed.No one knows what the goal of Russian President Putin's invasion of Ukraine is now becoming now.

Frederick Kliem, a senior researcher at the Singapore Nanyang Institute of Technology Rajerenan International Research Institute, said this when he was interviewed by Lianhe Zaobao, saying, "We can't know how much Putin foresees it.Consequences, including military and economic consequences. A reasonable assumption is that Putin has expected military resistance in international sanctions and Ukraine, but whether the two are so fierce, we do not know. "

He also said: "We can't know what Putin is thinking. He has proved more than once that his behavior violates the logic of rational behavior."External results

Although Putin's behavior is not logical, the development of war makes people see the impact of this war on the future.

Bloomberg's daily briefing on March 15 pointed out that Putin's aggression war may cause three unexpected results.First of all, the invasion has caused large -scale sanctions on the international community on Russia, and Russia is likely to default on the debt that cannot be repaid.

Although Russia eventually repaid the interest expired bond interest on the US dollar and temporarily solved the urgent need of debt defaults, its economy will still be due to international sanctions, especially excluded from the Global Bank of Finance and Telecommunications Association (SWIFT)Beyond the payment system, it was hit hard.The Putin government's assets left after the evacuation of Western investors in the Putin will also lead to Western investors in the future to invest in Russia.

Secondly, Putin believes that Ukraine has been part of Russia since ancient times. As the result of human national state, Ukraine is the result of artificial construction. Ukraine does not have the conditions to become an independent nation.Based on this Russian nationalist view of Ukraine, he unexpectedly united the Ukraine nation.

Ukraine has pro -Russian political parties. The Russian population is mainly distributed in the east and northeast regions.s population.

Third, the Russian army has not completely captured a major city for a month, exposing the weakness of the Russian army.Some Western military experts even believe that if Russia has nuclear weapons, the Russian army is non -US opponent.

Western scholars: Even if the war has been won in the long run, Russia is the largest loser

However, the leaders of Western countries are worried that Putin is gambling in this aggression war.Personal reputation and status, due to the unable to achieve the expected results of the rapid decision, he may implement a more heavy blow to Wu in order to consolidate his own power status.In fact, the Russian army's bombardment over the past two weeks shows that the Kremlin is seeking the results of the benefit to Putin.

However, some Western and Russian scholars believe that even if Putin wins this war, Russia will become a vassal country in China, and it is no longer the main player in the development of the World Bureau.

Professor Lukanov, a professor at the National College of Higher Economics of the National University of Russia, said in the end of the era of comment that Russia's military intervention means the end of a era in global affairs, and its impact will last for several years., But Moscow has positioned himself as "the agent of major changes in the world."In short, Russia will become the agent of China in the game of a big country, instead of being an opponent who is sitting on the same way with the United States.

Although Russia is the successor of the Soviet Union and the nuclear military country, the GDP in 2020 (GDP) was 1.5 trillion US dollars, which was smaller than 1.6 trillion US dollars in South Korea.Faced with international sanctions, Moscow can only fall back to Beijing, which has no restrictions on friendship and cooperation.

French Fergaro Newspaper China: Ukrainian war winner pointed out that Western sanctions will reduce Russia to a vassal of Chinese economy in the future not far.Although Chinese leaders do not agree with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, because it reminds them of Japanese aggression against China, Chinese leaders hide their objections in their hearts in order to use Putin's strategic gap.

The article said that China will purchase Russia's energy and metals, but it will also strengthen imported energy from the Persian Gulf countries.The Chinese "will hold a diplomatic event to praise their partnership with Moscow, but they are smart and will not put all eggs in a basket."

Some scholars believe that the United States is the biggest winner of this war because Putin assisted the United States to unite European countries and strengthen the core position of the United States in NATO.

Edward Halizak, a professor of research professor in Warsaw, Poland, interviewed: "Russia has lost its reputation in Western society, especially in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. This is for Russia.A huge failure has also prompted NATO and the European Union to be more united in Russia's policy. The positive role of the United States is now widely accepted in European countries. "

Although Putin has repeatedly accused NATO eastward expansion threatening Russia's security,However, the United States has been busy with domestic politics since the global financial turmoil. When Trump was president, the United States turned to conservativeization. The face and discord in Europe and the United States became more and more obvious. French President Macron even advocated the establishment of the European army.

Putin invaded Ukraine, so that Germany decided to increase military expenditure to 2%of GDP overnight, achieving Trump's request that year.In addition, the aggression war has increased the voice of Sweden and Finland's call to join NATO.

Politicians Berberry and Johns Hopkins University Foreign Policy Scholar Brandus, Bland, the return of American and peaceful returning in foreign affairs?It is pointed out that Putin's aggression war is strengthening the Democratic National Alliance.

"Putin inadvertently helped the United States and the allies a busy -when they woke up from their complacent emotions, they also gave them a historical opportunity to reorganize for a period of fierce competition with Russia and China.And re -entering, it will eventually rebuild the international order that has been collapsed in recent years. "

Therefore, many Western scholars believe that the development of aggression has developed to this stage.Is the biggest loser.