Meiyi avoids the red line and starts the war. Small conflicts may continue

The relationship between the United States and Iran has deteriorated rapidly, and more conflicts are inevitable, but it is unlikely to fight, because both sides are unwilling, but they try to stop in front of the red line to avoid going back.

Analysis of the Wall Street Journal, to know how to develop US -Iqi relations, it is necessary to analyze the goals and bottom lines of the two countries.After the U.S. President Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement in May 2018, he pressured Iran's extreme, mainly through economic sanctions. The purpose was to force the Iranian talks with the United States or disintegrate the Iranian regime.

The United States knows that Iran may retaliate, so Trump has not used military operations against Iran until he hunt Suleimani.In June last year, the two Oman Bay oil tankers were attacked. The United States accused Iran's hacking behind the scenes, but Trump did not respond with military operations.

From the perspective of Iran's counterpart in the United States, Iran has three goals.First of all, it is necessary to show the pain of Iran that can bear both economic sanctions and pain in other countries.Second, I want the international community to pay attention to the conflict between Iran and the United States, and hope that other countries will intervene and alleviate Iran's economic pressure.

In order to achieve this goal, Iran manipulates the agent to approach the edge of the war: Iran's allies in Yemen fired missiles to Saudi Arabia's oil -producing facilities;Armed groups attacked the U.S. military in Iraq.

Third, Iran wants to make Trump decide to withdraw troops from Iraq, so that Iran can further strengthen its influence in Iraq. Therefore, Iran has recently provoked the United States in Iraq, and the Wall Street Journal was judged to retaliate against the US air strike and killing revolution.The Guard Holy City Brigade commander Suleimani, Iran may attack the US target in Iraq through an agent.

Iran has always avoided military attacks directly, because the Iranian regime understands that fighting against the United States may lead to collapse of the regime.

Trump has no willingness to fight against Iran. He has always claimed that the U.S. military conflicts from the Middle East who can't see the end, and his supporters hope so much.However, as more US military enters the Middle East reinforcement instead of evacuation, this goal seems difficult to achieve.