(Washington / New York Comprehensive) U.S. President Trump ordered Major General Sulaimani, a commander of the Sacred City Brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, is a high -risk move that may attract the retaliation of Iran and worsen the situation in the Middle East.Some analysts believe that Trump's lonely betting is not related to domestic politics.He will strive for re -election this year and facing the impeachment of Congress. He may want to show his toughness to voters.
Suleimani was killed by the U.S. UAV outside the Iraqi capital Baghdad Airport on Friday.He is the actual supreme commander and military leader of Iran's military and intelligence activities in Iraq and Syria.
The chairman of the United States Chiefs of Staff McLee said after the incident that the United States has a powerful information that shows the potential threat of Suleimani, and the scale and scope are greater than before.The risk is higher than the risks that may bring.
National Security Expert of the US Foreign relations Association, Bott, pointed out that Suleimani was a plane that the United States has been assassinated by the United States since the United States has been assassinated by the United States since 1943 (the Japanese army attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941 in 1941).The highest foreign military general.
Former analysts of the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States, Sloukin said that former US presidents such as Bush and Obama have considered removing Suleimani, but because they are worried that this may cause the United States to face a greater price, such as Iran's aim of revenge operationsOr the war is long -lasting, and finally stopped.
Whether to assassinate Suleimani has discussed 10 years
Bendora, a key senior researcher at Washington think tank, pointed out that whether the assassination of Suleimani has been discussed for 10 years, and even Israel, who has always threatened the enemy's threat to the enemy, believes that this will be lost.
After Trump entered the White House, he abandoned the Iraqi nuclear agreement and turned to Iran to put pressure on the limit, which exacerbated the tension between the United States and Iraq.Bangdora believes that Trump's policy instead allows Iranian hardliners such as Suleimani to receive greater support in China.Suleimani has grown in the region in recent years. The political and military agenda of Syria, Iraq and Yemen is basically the final say.
Analysts said that Trump ordered the assassination of Suleimani, on the one hand, maybe this person thinks that this person is very dangerous and will not be able to become a big deal. On the other hand, the presidential election will be held at the end of the United States. Trump will seek re -election.He will face an impeachment interrogation in the Senate. Perhaps he intends to use the assassination operation to show his tough style and win more voters.
However, legal experts questioned that Trump did not obtain the consent of the Iraqi government to launch an attack in the other party. Whether there is a legal basis and whether it violates international law and US law.Prime Minister Iraqi said the US actions violated the garrison in the country, and many Iraqi politicians called for the expel of existing 5,000 U.S. military.
The United Nations Charter banned countries from using force in other countries unless it was approved by the country.Cherisney, a legal expert in Texas University, pointed out that the most powerful reason that the Trump administration can propose is that Suleimani is planning to kill Americans and kill him for self -defense.
Anderson, who was a legal adviser to the US Embassy in Iraq, said that Trump can also argue that the Iraqi government is unwilling or unable to cope with the threat of Suleimani. Therefore, the United States does not need to take Iraq to take action.If it is for self -defense, Trump has the right to martial arts without the approval of the US Congress.
Trump's assassination of Iranian general shocked the world, and also shattered Western officials that repeatedly emphasized the views, that is, Trump will try to avoid war in the election year.
The former French ambassador to the United States, Aero, said: The United States is completely unpredictable now.When Iran attacked the tanker, the American drone and Saudi Oilfield, the United States did not respond, but suddenly unexpectedly killed Suleimani.
Most American allies stand on the same front as the United States, but Germany expressed concerns about Iran's revenge and triggering a new wave of violence; the United Kingdom and other countries have called on the United States to ease the situation in the Middle East.
Bayman, a professor of security research course at Georimon University in the United States, said: A problem in the United States in the Middle East is that it often ignores or neglects allies. When the United States is confronted with Iran, it may be quite unfavorable to the United States.
