Trump's lsquo; U.S. priority RSquo; Policies have allowed the United States to farther with allies on the diplomatic stage.(Associated Press)
Sino -US trade war extension (Associated Press)
North Korea's recent three -degree test missile (Reuters)
Stage at peace negotiations with Afghanistan Taliban (Reuters)
Iran's drone attacks Saudi Arabian oil facilities and the clouds cover Persian Gulf (Reuters)
International Special
The third special gold will be far away, and North Korea has recently made two consecutive test missiles, while the Sino -US trade war negotiations have repeatedly made great progress from gaining a lot, and they have touched the reefs again.
U.S. President Trump's heartbroken breath entered September and tweeted in September: On the 9th, he announced to the media in the White House that the peaceful negotiations between the United States and Afghan Taliban had died and said that he had stopped the peace talks;
Immediately after the early morning of the 14th, Iran's drone against the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which led Saudi crude oil production by half and oil prices rose. Trump once opened that the ammunition had been loaded, and the cloud clouds shrouded the Persian Gulf.
The above -mentioned international friction is the main gunpowder store in the world today. Subsequent development not only has a global situation, but also directly affects the election of Trump's re -election next year.
From now on, we must be an unpredictable country.
In April 2016, the US rich man Trump, who was struggling to win the nominated by the Republican presidential candidate to explain to the Washington elite the U.S. priority vision of the United States' foreign policy.
He vowed at the time to end the United States' military interference in the Middle East, forcing NATO allies to increase military expenditure, and at the same time established a closer relationship with Russia and China.
He shows that the outside world can predict what the United States is doing because we will tell everyone everything.We send troops to announce the world, and we will hold a press conference.We (future) must be unpredictable.
Trump claims that there is only one answer to the morbidity of US foreign policy, that is: Trump.He said: Only I know how to solve it.
After taking office, Trump put his unpredictable foreign policy into practice.He withdrew from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iranian nuclear agreement, and also relocated the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The way Trump should be unpredictable as he said at the beginning.Some analysts believe that this does not follow the common sense of diplomatic means that this is not bad.
In April of this year, Kon, an international affairs scholar who served as a consultant to the State Council during his tenure, wrote an article on Foreign Affairs: Trump's first two -year term is amazingly stable hellip; hellip;Disadvantages) have not yet changed to obvious disaster.
In November last year, Kenpu, the chief executive chief of the US think tank Atlantic Countcil of the University, even praised Trump, showing his refreshing willingness to deal with important issues that have been completely avoided or unintentionally resolved.
However, half a year later, Kenpu also pointed out that the Trump administration is now as if conducting international acrobatics performances, and it is necessary to control multiple strategic balls at the same time.Even the most proficient acrobatics performers will be busy.
Diplomacy is busy in recent months
In recent months, Trump has been very busy on the diplomatic stage.
He withdrew from the central guidance treaty signed with Russia, and also tested the medium -range missile for the first time.His trade negotiations with China made great progress for a while, and he disappeared for a while.
He and North Korean leader Kim Jong -un's third special gold club is far away, but in the face of Pyongyang, which has performed 10 missile tests this year, he can only say that Kim Jong -un likes to test the missiles, and the United States has not restricted its short -range short rangemissile.
In addition, Trump is also busy negotiating with the Taliban elements, hoping to reach a peace agreement and end the longest Afghan war in the United States.However, the negotiations between the two sides have not ended, and Taliban began to launch a bomb attack in Afghanistan.
Trump and Iran are even more entangled. Iran, who has suffered a series of US sanctions, has frequently moved in May. He deliberately destroyed or seized the tanker in the Persian Gulf waters, and also launched an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft in the United States.
Earlier this month, Iran announced the start of advanced centrifugal machines to increase the concentrated uranium reserves, which is the latest measure taken by Tehhrand to suspend the performance of the Iran nuclear agreement.
Two weeks ago, the United States' oil facilities in the Persian Gulf region Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones. The United States immediately pointed his finger at Iran and approved to add troops to the Persian Gulf region to strengthen the defense capabilities of the district.
Do not predict that diplomacy has traces to follow
The situation of the Persian Gulf exudes a strong smell of gunpowder. Fortunately, it is not yet on the ground that the war is not yet on, and this has to start with Trump's diplomatic wrist.Yes, although Trump's foreign policy is unpredictable, in fact, there are still traces of this.
Trump's worldview is quite consistent.After he came to power, he stated that he opposed his former Obama's appeasement policy to Iran during his administration and did not support Bush's intervention policies for Iraq and Afghanistan.What Trump wants to do is to maximize the interests of the United States in the Middle East with a minimum cost.This is why hawks that advocate military intervention and realize the change of Iranian regime such as Bolton, such as National Security Consultants, Will eventually be fired by Trump.
This talks about one of the characteristics of Trump's diplomatic wrist: bluffing, trying to capture.When trade negotiations with China, he repeatedly forced the tariffs, but several delayed levy of tariffs were repeatedly levied; after accusing Iran's attack on Saudi oil facilities, he stated that the ammunition had been loaded, and then emphasized that he did not want to be involved in the Middle East.War.
Some foreign policy experts believe that Trump has opened international negotiations, such as meeting with Kim Jong -un, and should be remembered.However, many people have criticized his negotiation methods to be too arrogant, making the international situation even more turbulent.
Trump said when he defended himself: This is the way I negotiate.In the past years, this method is very useful to me and is more useful for our country.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson, who was duty of Trump recently, recently pointed out in Harvard's lecture that successful negotiations should be to leave with acceptable results.He said with some pointing: If you think that the negotiation is either wins or losses, then your experience will be bad.You will be extremely dissatisfied, and there are no people who want to talk to you.
U.S. priority allies are drifting away
It is true that the United States has not achieved substantive results with China, North Korea and Afghanistan Taliban.In the words of Trump's biographical writer Michael Dantonio, in international issues, Trump is more interested in making some noticeable announcements, not solving long -term problems.
Dandanho said: Once he finds a partner who is willing to cooperate, he may make some important announcement of the important details of hellip; hellip; as for the specific details, wait for others to solve it after the election.
However, some countries have found that the United States under Trump is no longer a reliable international power.Catrus, a senior researcher at the famous think tank Center for American Progress, said: Many countries now adhere to their own interests and no longer pay attention to the US views as before.
In fact, Trump's U.S. priority policy has allowed the United States to follow its allies on the diplomatic stage.His independence alone couldn't even stand his left and right hands.Martis, who resigned from the post of Minister of Defense at the end of last year, pointed out that the country with allies is prosperous, and countries without allies will not be prosperous.
At the end of last month, Matisse wrote on the Wall Street Journal that the United States was important to maintain alliances and commitments all over the world. He pointed out: Without allies, we will be more and more lonely, which will make us face more and more in the world.Big risk.
Not to mention, the United States is difficult for the United States to win the support of France and Germany in trying to persuade allies not to buy Huawei's 5G technology in China.
After Iran's attack on Saudi oil facilities, the United States needs the support of the allies.The US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Strategy and International Issues Research Center) Director of the Middle East Project Director Altman pointed out: Trump has always believed that every country should do hellip; hellip; but he shouldNow it is clear that they need to fight for the support of the allies at the UN General Assembly to deal with Iran.
Mildred Elizabeth Sanders, a professor at the government department of Cornell University, accepted the Lianhe Zaobao interview: Most Trump's policy is from his personal interests, and rarely has ideological or political party opinions based on hellip; hellip; supportHe will get his help and cooperation with Feng Cheng; if you oppose or criticize him, you will go out.This is what potential allies find it difficult to cope.
Attack Iran for Saudi Arabia?
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and many people pay attention to whether the United States will send troops to Iran and fall into another war swamp.
Professor Sanders of the University of Cornell told the United Morning Post: Trump was a non -general president. He criticized the war created by his former president and did not show that his most loyal supporters wanted the United States to fall into war again.After the former Guoan consultant Bolton left, his other advisers estimated that he did not want war.
Professor Sanders pointed out that the United States is actually not so dependent on imported crude oil. Saudi Crown Prince is one of the world's most famous leaders. ThereforeHe may face domestic opposition.
She said: Trump must think twice before making any commitment to Saudi Arabia and attacking Iran, which may cause a political and humanitarian disaster.
Professor Sanders believes that even if the United States does not fight against Iran, Trump may have ordered some aggression outside the war.
Avoiding crisis upgrades is beneficial to Trump
The assistant professor of the Department of National Security Department of the U.S. Naval Graduate School, Miedin, wrote in a foreign policy that avoiding crisis upgrades is beneficial to Trump.
She wrote: The crude oil market is global. Even if the United States becomes a net crude oil exporter, the US refinery still has to pay higher crude oil prices, no matter where this oil originated.When they pass the increased cost to customers, American consumers have to pay higher fuel costs at gas stations.
High oil prices will always be unpopular, and it is even more dangerous to increase oil prices annually.Miedin pointed out: If Americans' pockets are impacted, they may immediately affect Trump's support.The continuous rise in oil prices may push the country to the economic recession and further affect his re -election opportunity.
Foreign policy influence is re -election?
Foreign policies rarely play a leading role in the US presidential election, but Trump has always worked hard to make his image the only president who can reach an agreement with foreign leaders and return the US military to home.In fact, some diplomatic crisis does have a direct impact on the United States.As for the Sino -US trade dispute, the deterioration of tariffs and the deterioration of the trade war will likely directly impact American consumers and manufacturers.
Professor Sanders of Cornell University pointed out that Trump was elected in 2016 because the people at the low -level level believed that the continuation of Hillary or Obama's policy would not bring hope to them.She said: At the time, she was unable to choose at the time, and now it seems to have returned economy.The border control is stricter, the unemployment rate decreases, and the salary has risen slightly hello; hellip; If the US economy continues to be strong, Trump's re -election opportunity is actually not small.
Scholars: polls can only refer to voters the most concerned about economic factors
Du Qiang, an associate professor of Political Science, Singapore School of Management University, told Lianhe Zaobao that based on the data of the famous poll analysis website, FiveThirtyeight (538) data, from December 2018 to the present, Trump's non -support rate has remained stable, from 51.3%To 57.4%.
At present, Trump's non -support rate is 53.7%, which is not far from the 51.3%of Obama's time in power that year, and Obama was successfully re -elected.However, although Bush's support for re -election was as high as 66.8%, he eventually lost the election.
Du Qiang pointed out: The US economy may be more important than any other factors, but even the economy may not help or hurt his hellip; Hello;Essence
Analysis: Reach any agreement with Chaozhong in Chao and Iran
Some analysts believe that if Trump can reach any agreement with North Korea, Iran or China, he will strive for re -score for him.However, it also depends on whether Pyongyang, Tehran or Beijing is willing to cooperate with him, and whether they think that assisting Trump to win the second term is beneficial to them.
For North Korea, TrumpThe recognition and praise of its leaders may allow Kim Jong -un to consider whether to make some concessions at the US -DPRK talks.In Tehran in the current situation, I believe that seeing Trump stepped down, he should not help him make any opportunities for diplomatic meetings.As for Beijing, there are signs that China should not see Trump's second term.
Ben Rhodes, who served as a senior foreign policy adviser during the Obama period, said: Obviously, Iran, China, and North Korea are aware that anything they do may cause shock hellip; hellip; they areHolding votes.
