Contradictions from Lebanese to the Red Sea United States and Iran intensify the risk

Berlin -Last summer, US President Biden and his senior national security assistant also thought that the possibility of conflict with Iran and his agents had been effectively controlled.

At that time, the two sides had just reached an agreement through secret talks. Five of the detained Americans were released, the condition was to thaw Iranian funds of $ 6 billion and released some Iranian prisoners.A radical organizations funded by Iran seem to be relatively calm, including Hamas in the Palestinian region, the Albon in Lebanon, and the Hussean forces in Yemen.Iran even temporarily suspended the uranium concentration of underground nuclear facilities and delayed the process of nuclear weapons.

Hamas invaded Israel and Israel's tough counterattack on October 7, which changed all of this.Now, the United States and Israeli -plus a dozen countries that are working hard to maintain the smoothness of the Red Sea trade -facing an Iranian Iran who is aggressive.From Lebanese to the Red Sea to Iraq, these agent organizations launched a large number of attacks and conflicted with the US military twice in the past week.The United States publicly threatened that if violence could not stop, the US military would launch an air strike.

At the same time, although the Bayeng government rarely discussed the matter, Iran's nuclear project suddenly accelerated the process.International inspectors announced at the end of December that Iran's closer to bomb -level uranium concentration activities increased by three times.According to most rough estimates, Iran has now mastered the fuel of at least three nuclear weapons. American intelligence officials believe that the additional uranium concentration required to convert these fuels into bomb -level materials can be completed in just a few weeks.

"We returned to the origin," said the French senior official Nicholas Delvy last week that he had deeply participated in the negotiations of the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement.

In short, since the Occupy Embassy occupied by the Iranian king in 1979, the Iranian issue has reached the most complicated node.European and American intelligence officials said they did not think that Iran would conflict with the United States or Israel because they were worried that this conflict would not have good results.However, Iran seems to be very happy to challenge the bottom line, launch attacks, cooperates with other forces to combat US military bases and ships that carry cargo fuel, and once again reach the edge of nuclear weapons capabilities.

In 2022, Harkov, Ukraine.A policeman is checking the suicide drone components called Iranian by the Ukrainian authorities.Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Reuters

Iran's aid scale to Russia has expanded sharply the complexity of the problem.At the beginning, Iran only sold a small amount of "witness" drone for Russia to fight against Ukraine. Now the military sales gate has been widened.American intelligence officials now believe that Iran is preparing to transport short -range missiles for Russia to fight Ukraine. At this time, Ukraine's air defense weapons and artillery shells are facing a shortage.

This reflects the sharp transformation of the pattern: since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Iran has discovered that its situation is no longer isolated.Iran suddenly formed a certain alliance with Russia and China. The latter two as members of the United Nations Security Council have supported the United States' efforts to restrict the Iranian nuclear plan.Nowadays, former President Trump has terminated the Iranian nuclear agreement five years ago, and the two superpowers of China and Russia not only became an allies of Iran, but also ignored the sanctions as its patrons.

"I think Iran is in a favorable position, and its interests in the United States and its interests have been sold by it," said the Director of the Chartham Research Institute in the Middle East and North Africa project Sanan Wakill."Iran is very active on all issues, is not affected by any internal changes, and is also performing uranium concentration activities at a very amazing speed."

A private transaction that is not scattered

, Biden intends to restore the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2015. In the three years before Trump's withdrawal in 2018, the agreement effectively curbed the Iranian nuclear plan.After more than a year of negotiations, the two sides finally reached an agreement in the summer of 2022, restoring most of the previous agreement.The agreement requires Iran to transport its newly produced nuclear fuel out of Iran, as in 2015.

But this effort failed in the end.

In the next year, Iran accelerated the nuclear plan, condensed uranium to 60%of the purity for the first time, and was not far from 90%of the production nuclear weapons.This is a thoughtful move that aims to show to the United States that Iran has only a few steps away from nuclear bombs -but there is no cross -border to prevent its nuclear facilities from being attacked.

However, last summer, Buden's Middle East affairs coordinator Brett Maggock quietly reached two other irrelevant agreements.One was to release five US prisoners in exchange for several Iranians who had been imprisoned, as well as the $ 6 billion assets of Iran in South Korea for humanitarian purposes to a account of Qatar.

In November, the White House's Middle Eastern affairs coordinator Bret McGock was in Manama, Barin.Mazen Mahdi/Agence-Presse-Getty Images

But the second transaction-Bayeng does not want the outside world to know the existence of the transaction-without written agreement, the content is that Iran will restrict its nuclear concentration and control the agent armed forces armed forces armed forces armed forces.EssenceIran was informed that only in this way can we negotiate more extensive agreements.

In a few months, it seems to play a role.Iran's agent in Iraq or Syria did not attack the U.S. army. The ships were freely sailing in the Red Sea. Inspectors reported that the speed of Iran's concentrated uranium slowed down.

Some analysts say that this is just a temporary calm.Susanna Maloni, director of the Foreign Policy Project of the Brucks Society, and Iranian expert, said, "they want to keep the region's calm and lone note during the election."

Attack from all directions

U.S. intelligence officials said that Iran did not incite or approve Hamas's attack on Israel, and may not even know about it beforehand.In view of the penetration of Israel and the Western intelligence department, Hamas may worry that the attack news will be leaked from Iran.

But at the beginning of the war of Hamas, Iran's agent forces immediately launched an attack.However, there are important signs that Iran faces its own domestic problems, hoping that conflict is limited to a certain scope.Earlier, the Israeli War Cabinet discussed the initiative to launch a pioneering strike against the Lebanese Albon, and told the United States that the attack on Israel was imminent, and this was part of Iran's crackdown on the Israeli plan from all directions.

Biden's men refuted that Israel's assessment was wrong and shot to prevent Israel's attack.They believed that they had stopped -or at least a larger wars were postponed.

Last week, the scene after the explosion occurred on Daiheye, the suburbs of Berut, Lebanon.Mohamed Azakir/Reuters

However, in recent days, the threat of Israel and the Koto's war has increased again.The organization launched dozens of rockets to an Israeli military post on Friday and Saturday, claiming that this was a "preliminary response" for Hamas senior leader Salich Aruri to be killed in Lebanon last week.

Some of the colors, including the Minister of Defense Joyov Garant,Government officials warned that Hamas should not repeat itself on the Lord of the Lord. It is believed that the Allah has as many as 150,000 missiles aiming at Israel and invaded some of its troops -Radwan troops -Targeted training was conducted.

Red Sea crisis

The most direct conflict on the world is concentrated in the Red Sea. The Hussean armed forces in Yemen used Iran's intelligence and weapons to aim at its so -called "Israeli ships".In fact, they seem to be aiming at all ships with thermal -tracking missiles that cannot distinguish between targets. These missiles cannot distinguish between attack targets and speedboats used to board and take over the tanker.

More than a week ago, when the U.S. Navy came to rescue a Marispille ship that was attacked, the Hassas armed forces fired at the Navy helicopter.According to the Hussean armed forces, the US Navy pilots returned, sank three of the four Hussean armed vessels, causing 10 people to die.

Matsky, one of the world's largest ship transport dealers, has suspended all vessels through the Red Sea "in foreseeable future", which means that it is avoiding the fastest route between Eurasia -the Suez Canal.From IKEA to British Petroleum Corporation, companies around the world have warned the supply chain delay.

Biden is currently facing difficult choices.He withdrew from the Middle East, focusing on competing with China and curbing China.Now it's going to be pulled back again.

Hugh Lawat, an expert in the Middle East issue of the European Foreign Relations Commission, said, "The United States has established a deterrent system that indicates that it is not interested in regional wars, but it is ready to interfere with Iran."The existence of the army made Washington face more risks."Therefore, this deterrence system may promote the upgrading of the situation."

David E. Sanger reported Bayeng government and national security.He has worked in the Times for more than 40 years and has written several books on US national security challenges.Click to view more information about him.

Steven Erlanger is the chief diploma of the Times in Europe and stays in Berlin.He previously reported in Brussels, London, Paris, Jerusalem, Berlin, Prague, Belgrag, Washington, Moscow, and Bangkok.Click to view more information about him.

Translation: Harry Wong, Duran