Gavekal Dragonomics, a consulting agency, shows that the degree of decline in China's import dependence on China is lower than the level of official data display.
According to Bloomberg News on Friday (October 13), Jiafu Longzhou analyst Thomas Gatley wrote in a report that since the large -scale tariffs on Chinese commodities in Washington, WashingtonThe proportion of imported goods from China has decreased by two to three percentage points, rather than an eight percentage points displayed by US government data.
The report said that the proportion of official US data showed a decline in the decline in the decline in the proportion of the US commodity. Southeast Asia and other third countries in China, and the US importers issued low invoicing to reduce the impact of tariffs.
According to data from the US Census Agency, the average proportion of commodities imported from China from China as of 12 months before July this year was 14.6%; and the 12 months before March 2018,The proportion has reached a peak of 21.8%.At that time, the US President Trump was on the eve of the trade war in China.
Gatti believes that the actual proportion of Chinese goods in imports in the United States may be close to 18%, which is lower than the previous 21%.He added that the result "Although it is not insignificant, it is not enough to reverse the Qiankun."
Gatti wrote that due to the attempt to avoid tariffs, the export data collected by Chinese customs can better reflect the import of the United States from China than the United States.He pointed out that according to China's export data, Chinese products accounted for an eight percentage point of imports of imports in the United States, and low invoicing may account for about three percentage points. Through Southeast Asia's transposition trade may account for about two percentage points.
