American scholar: Sino -US trapped ＂security dilemma＂ gray zone conflict or upgrade

All parties feel that their behavior is legal to maintain the status quo; but it is also believed that the other party's actions are provoking, changing, or challenging the status quo, and this is a "safe dilemma."

The South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait have been regarded as the two major regions of China and the United States that are most likely to explode in recent years. Some American scholars analyzed that now that both China and the United States have fallen into a "security dilemma", they have determined that each other is destroying the status quo and challenging their own interests.Regional countries should be careful to prevent further heating up.

Chinese official and Russian President Putin met in mid -September at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit., Focus on the issue of South China Sea.

In the past year, the military actions of China and the United States in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait frequently showed that the confrontation between the two countries' problems around the two regional regions has not stopped.

Jacques Delisle, Director of the Contemporary China Research Center of the University of Pennsylvania in the United States on September 28 with a video of the "Revisiting of the Revisions of the Order of the South China Sea" international seminar at the "Indo -Pacific Regional Situation" held in Taiwan UniversityIt is pointed out that the root cause of this series of conflicts is the "security dilemma" between China and the United States.

He pointed out that the geopolitical situation of the South China Sea is a microcosm of the relationship between the superpowers. All parties feel that their behavior is legal to maintain the status quo;The status quo, and this is the "safety dilemma."

Dai Jie believes that there are many competitive and structural forces behind China and the United States that China and the United States are in a "security dilemma", including the US hegemony began to go downhill. On the one handWhen the interests of the United States, they are reluctant to accept the cost of obeying the rules; China is in a recipient from the rules, transitions to shakes, and even becomes the direction of the shaped.

He also mentioned that international law and international law, full of structural restrictions and vagueness, are disconnected from the perspective of territorial and waters, as well as the realization of the territory and waters, as well as the "security dilemma" of China and the United States.

In addition, the deployment of China and the United States in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in recent years also has certain losses.

The coast patrol force is used as "gray zone tactics" tool

Lin Zhiyi, a researcher at the Central Research Institute of the Central Research Institute, who used to be the deputy chairman of the Taiwan Government Mainland Committee, said at the meeting that Beijing believes that the United States believes that the United States uses QUAD (QUAD), the United States and the United States, the United States, and the United States.Alliances and other mechanisms have a strategic plugging in mainland China.

He emphasized that the outside world discusses the Dongsha Island controlled by the South China Sea.Since 2020, Dongsha Island has been threatened by mainland fighters. Beijing has intended to cut off the connection between Dongsha Island and Taiwan, and reduce the military possibility of the United States' free entering and exit buses and the South China Sea.

For the possible form of conflict around the Indian area, the Australian University of New South Wales, a Professor of the Canthorla Campus of the University of New South Wales, which specializes in the field of international law and international security, mentioned that the coastal patrol is mentioned that the coastal patrolThe team is becoming more and more often regarded as a "gray zone tactics" tool, especially the size of the Chinese maritime police ship is comparable to warships, which may further upgrade the conflict.

The Philippine Mainstream English Newspaper Philippine Daily Inquirr reported in early September that the Chinese Maritime Police Ship entered the Exclusive economic waters of 200 nautical miles (about 370 kilometers) in the Philippines at the end of August.Coastal Guard Joint Exercise.

It is reported that the Chinese Maritime Police 5901 ship that appeared at that time was one of the largest maritime police ships in China, with a displacement of 12,000 tons; the other 5303 ship, which was in April to obstruct the Philippine supply ship to transport Renai Reef in April to the Renai Reef transportation.One of the three Chinese maritime police ships.

Gilfoyer said that the current marine police ships used in China are basically the size of the navy frigates, and it also shows that the Chinese maritime police are stronger than the navy in other countries in the region, which makes the sea patrol ships.The boundary between the warship becomes blurred.

He believes that in the past, the use of "law enforcement ships" in the maritime field as a symbol of sovereignty instead of "warships" will help ease the tension, or at least to curb conflicts.The "gray zone tactics" change the status quo through actions other than conventional armed conflicts.

Therefore, Gilfoyl has judged that when countries began to use sea cruise ships with the ability of frigates to enforce the law in the controversial waters, the coast patrol force may be nearly ending as a symbol of stability and cooperation.The "gray zone conflict" will be upgraded.

In addition to the South China Sea, a large maritime cruise rescue ship with a displacement of 6,600 tons "Sea Patrol 06" is also officially listed in July, and it is deployed in Pingtan Island, which is only 68 nautical miles away from Taiwan's main island in July.Essence

Song Yanhui, director of Taiwan's "Republic of China Marine Affairs and Policy Association", said in the seminar that Beijing recently strengthened the claim of the Taiwan Strait's jurisdiction in Beijing.The law even strengthens the law of anti -split national law to strengthen law enforcement in the Taiwan Strait.

Therefore, he believes that maritime law enforcement vessels are likely to be the root cause of the potential conflict of the China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait in the future; coupled with the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the United States and Taiwan will continue to go through the middle school election and presidential election.The situation adds variables.

Song Yanhui also mentioned that judging from the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis that broke out after visiting Taiwan in August in August, the Taiwan Strait Middle Line and Taiwan's collaboration on the sea base lines are gradually disappearing.It is certain that the frequency of mainland warships, military aircraft, and maritime law enforcement ships across the Taiwan Strait will continue to increase.