Malaysia Special
UMNO Malaysia has called for the 15th national election as soon as possible this year.(September 30th) a series of meetings decided to make elections this year. Umno is so anxious for the election.Zbo_intro> Or does it actually have another calculation?Analysts believe that The UMNO Possessing Witch to the rainy season hopes to lower the voters' voting willingness, Class = zbo_intro> Make UMNO win again due to a low vote rate. However, the rainy season election may also cause voters to be dissatisfied and counterproductive.
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib was imprisoned after the Federal Court rejected the SRC case on August 23. The UMNO chairman Ahmad Zahi and his "Possession" who also wondered the lawsuit immediately increased its strength.Hope to hold a general election as soon as possible.However, the "official position" led by the current Prime Minister and UMNO Vice Chairman Eismemi is obviously reluctant to do so. One of their reasons is that the weather is inappropriate.
However, the Barisan Nasional and UMNO Election Director Mohamadha Mountain claimed on August 29 that the national election will be held this year instead of next year.He pointed out that Ismai has agreed to hold a general election before the rainy season in December this year.However, Isemi has never verified this statement.
The Malaysian Meteorological Bureau warned on September 21 that severe floods may occur from the rainy season from November this year to early next year, and as many as 10 million people affected by the affected people may account for about 30 % of the country.The affected states will include Jilandan, Dengjia and Pahang on the east coast of the West Malaysia, Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Kedah on the West West Coast, as well as Sarawak of Johor and East Malaysia in South Malaysia.
After the Cabinet had a meeting on the same day, he believed that after the end of this year's flood, and the State Council could only hold a general election through the reflection job, but the cabinet did not decide the date of the election.In other words, the cabinet does not agree to the election of the election within this year.
Minister of Health Kelly also revealed on September 21 that many government refuge centers are located in schools, and all kinds of disaster relief materials are also stored there.Therefore, if a flood occurs, the school may not be able to make a temporary refuge center and be a polling station.The cabinet has also clearly instructed that the school is given priority to the school as a temporary shelter in the flood.
Understanding of the differences between the dates of the election for each faction, the meeting, the Politburo meeting, and the Supreme Director Meeting will be held on Friday (September 30).Election matters and time to dissolve Congress.The five giants include party chairman Ahmad Zahi, Acting Chairman Mohamadha Mountain, and Prime Minister Isemi Sabiri, Cayhowin and Mazel.
A UMNO Secretary Ahmad Maslan said after a series of conferences on Friday night that UMNO leadership has decided that Esmai will recently dissolve the Congress in accordance with the constitutional proposal and hold a general election within this year.EssenceSources revealed that Congress was expected to be disbanded after the government's fiscal budget 2023 fiscal budget, and a national election was held in early November.Umno's highest director Bon Moda told the media on Friday evening that the meeting of the day was "not finalized for the election date."He said that this must be decided by Izima.
The opposition party is very dissatisfied with Umno's eagerness to be eager to elections at the end of this year.The Acting Chairman of the People's Justice Party, Rafiz, said in Facebook on Friday that Umno's power forced to force the Esima election at the end of the year, which will inevitably irritate the people. At that timeLu Zhaofu, Secretary -General of the Democratic Action Party, issued a statement saying that UMNO claims that the general election this year is equivalent to ignoring the power of the state's constitutional influence.He believes that UMNO's approach has been gone to the monarch and disrespect the head of state.
UMNO expects a low vote rate to repeat the victory of Rouzhou
Huang Jinfa, a political scholar of Malaysia Shuangwei University, told Lianhe Zaobao that if a general election is held this year, it will definitely encounter even the rainy season or even the flood."The only thing UMNO can expect is low voting rate, so that when it has the opportunity to repeat Johor elections, about 45 % of voters have not voted, causing Umno to win."
The voting rate of Johor elections held in March this year was only 54.92 %, which is the lowest of the four states elections in the past two years.The Barisan Nasional led by UMNO was at the time of 40 of the 56 state constituency in Johor.
UMNO is the most mobilized party in Malaysia, and it is more capable of promoting votes than other political parties.If voters' willingness to vote is low, it means that there will be less opposition to the party's holder to vote, and UMNO can easily take advantage as long as it maintains the mobilization ability.In other words, low voting rates are more beneficial to political parties such as UMNO.
Liu Weicheng, a scholar at the Department of Journalism and Political Science, Raoman University in Malaysia, also said that UMNO has a strong grassroots penetration power and is very powerful to do "private polls" in their own fortress area, so I believe they have obtained some data to indicateIts fortress area is stable.
He pointed out in an interview that Ahmad Zahi must have a great chance of winning the election."Previously, Malacca and Johor elections made the Ahmad Zaji camp see Barisan Nasional votes back. Sarawak State Election let them see the decline of the Pakatan Harapan forces and a scattered sand. In addition to UMNO polls, these two aspects made them feel thatNow (election) is indeed a rare good time. "
But he said that although the Barisan Nasional's votes are signs of return, this may not mean that Barisan Nasional can regain the past glory, because although the Pakatan Harapan forces are not as good as before, the national alliance led by the indigenous unity party is not abundant.However, the Pakatan Harapan still has the "flood" as an election chip, and the national alliance has the Islamic Party blessing. In addition, the new party has been severely dispersed. Therefore, this election campaign is not easy to fight against the BN.
Huang Jinfa believes that if voters have been tired of responding to the flood and they are forced to vote, they may also blame those who are in power and punish BN with votes, so that UMNO in Ruyi is clever.
In addition, if the election was held before Ahmad Zahi was accused of misappropriation of the Health Thinking Foundation case, UMNO must be divided into two factions because of support and opposition, resulting in Umno's disadvantage before the start of the election campaign.
Huang Jinfa said that Ahmad Zahi rushed to the election as soon as possible with these risks. It can be said that it was desperate. Anyway, even if the UMNO election loses, Ahmad Zahi's situation will not be much worse than now.
But if UMNO victory, it is generally believed that Ahmad Zahi has the opportunity to get rid of the lawsuit.
Samanan High Court on September 23 that Ahmad Zahi was convicted of 40 corruption -shaped surfaces involving foreign visa systems.However, Ahmad Zahi still faced another case involving a health thinking fund and was charged with 47 criminal dishonesty and money laundering.Crime of corruption.The case will be interrogated until November 10, and then the judgment will be selected.
According to the official website of the Malaysian Parliament, the House of Representatives is currently divided into several camps such as the National Alliance (National Alliance), the National Front (Barisan Nasional), the Sarawak Political Party (Sarawak), and the Hope Alliance (Pakatan Harapan).There are 222 seats in the House of Commons. The ruling party camps formed by the National League, BN and Sand League account for 113 seats. There are 107 seats such as the Pakatan Harapan and other opposition camps, and the other two seats are suspended.This is similar to the situation after the "Sheraton Incident" at the end of February 2020.
Pan Yongqiang, a political scholar in Malaysia, believes that if the election at the end of this year, according to the current various information predictions, no camp can obtain a half -seat of Congress alone.Barisan Nasional may get 70 to 80 seats in West Malaysia."If the voting rate has risen, there may be fewer seats in the Barisan Nasional."
He said that if the Barisan Nasional's election performed well, the political responsibility returned to Ahmad Zahi instead of Isemisabri, because the election campaign was led by Ahmad Zahi and dominated the candidate."The defeat will cause Ahmad Zahi to lose the position of party chairman."
Liu Weicheng believes that UMNO is indeed a victory, and there are also signs that the Barisan Nasional members' votes return, but BN, especially Umno, still have a certain resistance to regain the glory of the past and governing alone.
Improved the election in 1999 may not be successful
The past elections of Malaysia have avoided the rainy season from November to February of the following year.All 14 elections from 1955 to the present are only the 10th National Election in the rainy season on November 29, 1999 when the former Prime Minister Mahathir was in power.The Barisan Nasional led by Mahathir won the victory at the time, winning the 148 seats of the 193 seats in Congress, and mastered nearly 77%of the seats.
The UMNO Danggang, led by Ahmad Zaji, obviously hopes to make the law this time, and has repeatedly advocated that the rainy season can also be elected, causing criticism from the Pakatan Harapan and non -governmental organizations.When Ahmad Zahi defended himself on the facebook on September 27, he pointed out that the Pakatan Harapan used to continue to delay the election because he was afraid of losing the election.Ahmad Zahi said that the investigation showed that if the election was held in the near future, the Pakatan Harapan could only get about 15%of the Malay votes.
Ahmad Zahi also gave an example in Facebook that Mahathir held a general election at the end of the rainy season at the end of the year in November 1999. The Sarawak State Election held on December 18 last year was also in the rainy season, and the two opposition parties were defeated.Therefore, he believes that even if a general election is held during the rainy season this year, Barisan Nasional can pass.
But political scholar Huang Jinfa believes that the situation this year is completely different from 1999.In the 1999 election, Mahathir led a lot of Malay votes, but won by the support of a large number of Chinese voters.
Nowadays, the BN lacks the support of Chinese voters, but also has to fight for the support of Malay nationalists with the Islamic Party and the indigenous unity party."UMNO believes that history can be repeated, and it is completely engraved with the boat."
Pan Yongqiang, a political scholar in Malaysia, also analyzed that the Sarawak's victory over the Sarawak last year was because the absolute advantage had been mastered before the election; the Sarawak Opposition Party failed to integrate due to the distinction between the local and the West Malaysian party.However, UMNO and Barisan Nasional do not have similar advantages at present.
As for the national election in 1999, Pan Yongqiang said that the Narcotic Federation of the Opposition of the Party ’s camp was just a army, and the Chinese votes tended to be stable and conservative.
"But don't forget that the Election of the Islamic Party was also a great gain, resulting in Mahathir lost a lot of Malay votes, and finally arranged for retirement in October 2003. It can be seen that Ahmad Zahi quoted these two examples, which can not indicate that at the end of the year, it does not indicate that the end of the year cannot indicate the end of the year.The rationality of the rainy season election. "
Scholar: If the new voters are angry or voted for the opposition votes
The 15th National Election will be the first election after Malaysia's implementation of 18 years of age after the age of 18, and as many as 5.8 million new voters.However, the willingness to vote for voters is generally not high, and they are not interested in politics. Whether it is UMNO or the opposition party, they may not be able to easily take advantage of this group of voters.
According to the election committee in January this year, after the implementation of the system of automatic becoming a voter, the number of voters in Malaysia will increase by about 5.8 million or about 40 %, with a total of 21.1 million.About 1.2 million of them are young first investment clan aged 18 to 21.
Huang Jinfa, a political scholar, said that in general, the newly -added young first investment tribe has little impact on the election, because they only account for about 20 % of the new voters, accounting for about 6 % of the total number of voters.
In his opinion, the influence of the young first investment tribe is not as good as the new voters who have not registered in the past but have not been registered in the past."About 4.6 million new voters are likely to not vote, but if they are angry, they will only vote against votes to teach their politicians. This is the nightmare of political parties and politicians."
Another political scholar Pan Yongqiang pointed out that according to the election situation of other countries, the lower the age of voters, the lower the voting enthusiasm.The Johor elections in March this year confirmed this. At that time, the voting rate of new voters was lower than other ages.
Pan Yongqiang said that the orientation of the new voters' party is different. No political parties have their own advantages in their hearts, and all parties may get their support.
In addition, the Pakatan Harapan and other oppositions did not have a leader like the last election and former Prime Minister Mahathir this time.There are also different opinions to join.These factors have an impact on the integration and election of the opposition.
Huang Jinfa believes that under the pressure of political situation in the past four years and the current three crisis of the epidemic, economic and environmental crisis, most voters actually do not care about which politicians can be an official or a big official.Your future and the guarantee of life and property.
He said: "The political parties of the country are facing the crisis of voters' concerns and raising countermeasures, and they will have the opportunity to win more votes. If they talk about the position or tent of the prime minister every day, it will only let more voters turn their eyes without voting."
Pan Yongqiang also believes that the Pakatan Harapan's Prime Minister's candidate or leader is not so critical.He said that the goal of the Pakatan Harapan should be placed in maintaining its existing strength, and first strive to fight for 60 to 80 national conference seats."As for how to organize the government after being elected, it depends on the negotiations and negotiations of each party when they arrive."
