Goldman Sachs: Although China and the United States have reached an agreement on the a

(Comprehensive News in New York) Although the preliminary agreement between China and the United States for audit stars, the market still believes that the probability of Chinese companies' delisted from the US exchange reached 50%.

Bloomberg quoted Goldman Sachs Group Strategic Monday (August 29) report reports that according to Goldman Sachs based on the "delisting barometer" based on the quantitative model, although the risk of delisting has fallen from 95%in March, it still fell, but it stillThere is risk of execution.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Accounting Supervision Committee of the US listed company (PCAOB) signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement last Friday (August 26).Draft.

However, the interpretation of the cooperation agreement between the two parties is not completely consistent, and it may bring some uncertain factors to the execution of the agreement.

Goldman Sachs said that under the best situation of the final agreement between China and the United States and the non -delisting of Chinese stocks, the Chinese companies and MSCI China indexes listed in the United States may rise by 11%and 5%respectively.

But if these stocks are forced to delist, the US deposit voucher and the MSCI China index may fall 13%and 6%respectively.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs also predicts that no matter how the audit discussions have progressed since then, the long -term trend of mainland companies seeking to list in Hong Kong will continue.

Strategicist said: "Although the audit inspection agreement may reduce the risk of extensive delisting, it has not changed our point of view, that is, the key strategic field of Sino -US tensions, including trade, technology, and capital markets.The uncertainty of geopolitical politics will continue to promote Chinese companies to scattered their listing risks from the United States. "

In the best situation of the final agreement between China and the United States and the non -delisting of Chinese stocks, the Chinese companies and MSCI China indexes listed in the United States may increase 11%and 5%respectively.

—— Goldman Sachs Group Strategyer