Malay
West Asia
Special
A former subsidiary SRC International Corporation of Malaysia Development Co., Ltd., a former subsidiary of Malaysia, will be judged in late August.
Public opinion generally believes that no matter whether he has a straightforward appeal, it will have a significant impact on UMNO, the current government and Prime Minister Eismishabili.opportunity.
UMNO's "lawsuit" led by party chairman Ahmad Zahi and Najib.Essence
The two factions still maintain the image of Umno unity and external, and the party competes and starts.All parties are observing how the Najib SRC International Corporation's money laundering case will stir the politics of Malaysia.
The National Front (Barisan Nasional) in the 2018 election lost Jiangshan because of a horse scandal, Najib became UMNO's "Last Prime Minister", but he not only was not abandoned by UMNO, but also became an influencer of the Internet celebrity "bossku"(My boss), the favor of voters, especially Malay voters.He set off the trend of "bossku" and assisted Barisan Nasional and UMNO victory in several supplementary elections.
This shows that Najib's political forces and strength cannot be underestimated.After Umno's failure, he is no longer the chairman of the party. He is still the backbone of UMNO. When UMNO and the National Alliance (National League) jointly re -administrate the central government, some people speculate that he may return to the core of power or even serve as the Prime Minister again.
Najib has always been active, and the current impression is better than the UMNO Chairman Ahmad Zahi, the activity chairman Mohamadha Mountain, and others, which makes people feel that his destiny is closely related to the fate of UMNO.
If the Federal Court ruled Najib, it means that he has no chance to flip the case, because he has used all the ways to appeal, and then he can only be imprisoned.This will make him lose his existing qualifications of parliamentarians and qualifications for the candidates for the next election, and his political career will not be unavoidable.
In the political world, power and interests dominate everything.If Najib is in jail, it does not rule out that the people in the UMNO party have a cold tea, but on the same front as him, Ahmad Zahi, who also faces the corruption lawsuit, will be alone.This means that the UMNO internal faction may be reorganized, and the Najib factions may be cicadas.
Some public opinion believes that once the situation develops, Esima will not be in this year's election in advance, but instead violates the party's intention and continues to delay time.
However, Liu Weicheng, a journalist and political scholar in La Man University in Malaysia, believes that according to the current situation, whether Esmai's dissolution of parliament is not directly linked to the Najib case.In other words, regardless of the results of the Najib's trial, Ismai is unwilling to hold a general election this year.
Esmai's two major reasons this year
Liu Weicheng pointed out in the interview with Lianhe Zaobao that this is mainly due to the two major factors.First of all, the current social and economic activities of Malaysia failed to return to the right track due to internal and external factors. If the inflation pressure and the people's grievances rose, the risk was too high.Secondly, in terms of politics, the people are currently paying more attention to economic issues and their willingness to elections is getting lower and lower."If it is dissolved at this time, it lacks the foundation of public opinion. In addition, the Hope Alliance (Pakatan Harapan) in the wild and the Sarawak Party Alliance (Sarawak) in East Malaysia are willing to continue to support the Issima government, so he does not need to rush to dissolve.Congress.
He emphasized that Isemi was unwilling to be directly associated with the Najib case early; whether Najib was convicted or not, Esmai still had a great right to speak and influence to resist "The pressure of the lawsuit.Esmai itself is also very clear. The longer the time to dissolve the parliament, the more beneficial it is to him.
"We can see that with time, Esima is getting more and more calm, and Ahmad Zaji is getting more and more irritable, because the longer the election is dragged, the more it is not good for Ahmad Zahi.UMNO MPs who originally supported Ahmad Zaji may pass the files. For example, Nazli, who had been ambiguous (Permisha Nithan District Congress) before, did you now change to support Isis?"
There are many ways to delay the election
Liu Weicheng pointed out that there are many ways to delay the election for Erism.One is to put administrative focus in controlling inflation, adjusting the economy, and transferring people to the focus and willingness of the recent elections to create a public opinion atmosphere that is currently not suitable for elections.Second, the Pakatan Harapan, Islamic Party, the National League, and the Saram League of the Pakatan Harapan, the Islamic Party, the National League, and the Saudi League are continued.Third, strive for the support of the Malaysian ruler council to avoid early elections.
He said that these are the bargaining chips of Izima, so he does not think that the Najib case will play a key role in the timing of the election."Of course, if Najib was convicted, he could put pressure on Esmai with Ahmad Zahi. This result did have the opportunity to lead to the UMNO outbreak of party struggle or early election.Body, so Najib is not guilty, it may not be completely cleared on the obstacles of the UMNO lawsuit. "
The current affairs commentator Xu Guowei also said that even if Najib appealed, the UMNO "lawsuit" wants to be elected as soon as possible, and other members of the Barisan Nasional may not think so."Once the Najib case has reversed, the impact and subsequent impact brought by the Najib case may not be favorable for the Barisan Nasional election. Umno is actually very clear that the competition within the party is fierce and lively.Everything is just mirror flowers and water. "
Najib is sentenced to innocence or as the Prime Minister?
The Malaysian people generally believe that if Najib is not guilty, he will be in the next election, hoping to be ashamed before the snow; if he win, he may still be the Prime Minister again.
Xu Guowei and Liu Weicheng believed that Najiro appealed upright. He will definitely continue to play in the coming election, but the chance of serving as the Prime Minister is not great, because even if the SRC international company's money laundering case is convicted, Najib still has anyVarious scandals and controversy are still very negative in the international reputation. If he wants to become the head of the government again, he will definitely face a lot of resistance inside and outside the party.
Scholars: Najib opportunities, UMNO, and other leaders can serve as Prime Minister
Liu Weicheng also said that when Najib was in power, he was in his own position. In recent days, the countries such as Sri Lanka and Laos are in crisis of bankruptcy.The resistance to Najib's re -phase."In other words, Najib has the opportunity to let it go again, but the probability is not high.
Not to mention, UMNO can be the Prime MinisterNot only did the leaders of Najib, but also Isemi, Mohammed Hashan, Hishan Mu Ding (senior minister of the Ministry of Defense).However, who has a higher chance is still difficult to say, because this usually depends on the two situations: the election or after the party election?And how many UMNO veterans are willing to retire in the coming election?These answers will set two things. Whether UMNO can become the largest party in the ruling league, and whether young voters will change their existing political layout."
Xu Guowei also agreed that other people in the UMNO were also optimistic about being the Prime Minister, including Mohamadha Mountain and Hishan Mu Ding.However, he said that according to the current situation, UMNO's best choice is to continue to serve as Prime Minister by Esmai, and then need to be replaced.
He pointed out that the biggest challenge of UMNO is that no one has the ability to unify UMNO, so for Najib, even if he thinks, he should not be the Prime Minister again in the short term."If Najib is convicted, it means that the resistance of his re -election in the party election will become smaller. Once he can re -serve as the UMNO chairman, he does not need to hold a general election so soon or in a hurry to change the prime minister.It can be called the party's intention to make the overall situation. It is not until he thinks that the time is right.
Political parties compete first and then cooperate to become a new trend
Umno unity has always directly affected the election results of the opposition party.If the cracks of Umno's "lawsuit" and "official positions" are expanding, the opposition party should be able to collect fishery profits.However, at the current party, the people's fair party, the Democratic Action Party, including the Pakatan Harapan, and the motherland of the motherland led by former Prime Minister Mahathir, seem to be welcomed by Malaysian voters."School" has always advocated one of the reasons for the early election.
They believe that the morale of all parties in the wild is like a scattered sand. Barisan Nasional and UMNO should seize the opportunity and hold a general election while the wild camp has not recovered.
Scholars: Now the election will appear in the state of "beating" in chaos
Liu Weicheng pointed out that the current political territory of Malaysia is really obscure. Whether it is the ruling party or the opposition party, it is not fully grasped by governing alone.If the election is now elected, it will basically show the chaos of "beating" of each party.
He said: "Many people feel that the UMNO Old God is there.Suzing votes in UMNO tickets is very worried about UMNO. And the Ahmad Zahi faction wants to election as soon as possible, one of which is to see that the national alliance is not abundant through the State A and Rouzhou elections, so I hope to hit the iron while taking advantage of the iron.Hot, hurry up and hold the election, and completely compete for the Tu Tuan Party. "
Malaysia, after experiencing the first political party rotation in the 2018 election, the "Sheraton Incident" in 2020, and a series of turbulence, the political situation became increasingly unpredictable.The emergence of many new parties such as the Turkish Mission, Fighter, and Sabah Minxing Party have also made votes dominated by Malay voters more dispersed.This situation caused Umno to be united or not, their votes inevitably affected by multi -party competition.
Similarly, the votes of the opposition party are also severely dispersed by multi -party competition, prompting some leaders of the wild party to discuss whether they want to fight Umno and Barisan Nasional in the form of "big tents", and they advocate everyone to fight first, and then choose them.Discuss whether to cooperate with the government.
Liu Weicheng pointed out that this approach is indeed more in line with the interests of various parties, and the latest reflection of the Malaysian country seems to be paving the way for such a situation."In the past, all parties had to cooperate, and they had to launch a negotiations for the distribution of the selection. Such negotiations must be compromised in political interests, but there are more political parties in election, and the chances of winning will be pulled down.Isn't the opportunity to win? So what everyone can do now is to talk as much as possible.
The new version of the reflection job claiming the bill states that changing the political alliance is not considered a job jump
"If you pay a little attention, you will find that the latest version of the anti -parliamental job change bill in Congress will delete the restrictions on the political alliance. The latest version clarifies that changing the political alliance is not considered as a job jump, which provides each party with their own first first firstThe space of war, and this also clearly shows that the government has noticed it to a large extent that after the election, no political alliance can form the government alone, so it is so one -hand. "
According to the reflection of the Malaysian government on July 18 in the Congress, after a party member was elected as a member of the parliament, once he resigned or joined another party, he would lose the qualifications of parliamentarians.EssenceHowever, if parliamentarians are expelled from their party, they can keep the qualifications of members.
TheThe Act clarified that the replacement of parliament members of the affiliated political parties due to a specific situation can also retain the qualifications of members.These specific situations include the dissolution of the political parties of the members of the parliament, or the registration bureau of the community registered bureau.If the party's alliances and the new party are formed, the seats of the original political parties will not be affected.
In this regard, Xu Guowei believes that the new version of the reflection billing bill is believed to be obtained by the consent of the party and the opposition parties, which means that "each of them is a war, and then seeking alliances" has become the consensus and tacit understanding of various political parties.
SRC International Corporation Money Laundering Case
After the Pakatan Harapan government came to power in May 2018, it began to investigate and control Najib on the disadvantages of the company.Najib was charged with as many as 42 criminal dishonesty, corruption, and money laundering, and the amount involved exceeded RM 6.7 billion (about S $ 2.1 billion).
Among them, the Kuala Lumpur High Court sentenced Najib in July 2020 to all seven crimes of the RMC International Corporation of RMC International Corporation, and he was sentenced to 72 years in prison and a fine of RM210 million.However, the High Court ruling all the imprisonment period will be implemented at the same time, that is, 12 years in prison.
Najib appealed to the Appeals Division, but was rejected in December last year to maintain the high court judgment.He then appealed to the federal court, and the court selected for 10 days in August this year, from August 15th to 19th, 22nd to 26th.
The Federal Court is the last appeal of Najib. If the appeal fails, he must enter his prison, becoming the first former Prime Minister who has been sentenced to prison for criminal crime.
